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NFL Weekly Grind Down: Week 17 - Page 5

by Ethan Haskell (Ethan) Last Updated 2013-12-29 01:19:57

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St. Louis at Seattle

St. Louis Rams Seattle Seahawks
Rams Seahawks
Sun – 4:25PM ET CenturyLink Field
Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts
11 43 16 -11 43 27
Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush
Offense 22.6 20 27 16 Offense 26.0 8 26 4
Defense 22.5 13 20 7 Defense 14.8 2 1 12
Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE
Seattle 1 8 1 6 St. Louis 10 27 17 3
Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1 Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1
Austin 69 4.8 3.0 Tate 89 6.0 5.7 3.0
Givens 79 5.3 2.3 3.0 Baldwin 72 4.8 5.7 6.0
Pettis 61 4.1 3.0 2.0 Harvin 1 1.0
Cook 76 5.2 3.0 2.0 Miller 51 3.9 3.0 3.0

St. Louis Rams

The Rams head to Seattle to face a team in need of a win when St. Louis has nothing left to play for. The Rams aren’t really worth using for DFS purposes this weekend, and the one spot where they would be able to have a matchup advantage was the run game until word that All-Pro tackle Jake Long would miss Week 17 and be placed on IR. Long rated out on PFF as the best rush blocking tackle in the NFL in 2013, meaning his absence means a lot of uphill sledding for Zac Stacy. In the Week 8 matchup between these teams, Stacy managed 88 of his 134 rushing yards while rushing to the left side of the O-line, where Long once roamed. I don’t see a ton of value in any of the STL offensive options with a lineman of his caliber missing against the best defense the NFL has to offer.

Seattle Seahawks

Seattle comes into this game with a ton of uncertainty, not unlike many of the playoff contenders right now in the NFL. A win would guarantee them the 2 seed in the NFC while a loss could potentially drop them as low as 5th in the conference. The scenarios are pretty insane, but the point is that they won’t be able to rest their starters. The key to this game for Seattle should be a heavy dose of Marshawn Lynch, who is generally much better at home than on the road. He was benched by Pete Carroll in the Week 8 meeting between these teams, and should be amped up to get some revenge in Week 17. It looked like his matchup was going to be pretty easy, with Chris Long being questionable all week, but he’s been upgraded to probable and will take the field on the STL d-line. Overall, their defense ranks 28th on the season in FP-allowed to RBs, 17th over the last 5 weeks and 20th over the last 3 weeks. They rate out in the middle of the pack in run stopping on PFF and with the 11 point spread favoring Seattle, there should be plenty of opportunities for Lynch to eat up clock late in the game.

The passing game could also find success here, as the Rams have now allowed 6 consecutive WR1’s to have at least 90 receiving yards against them with VJax posting a 5 catch, 98 yard game last weekend. That’s good news for Golden Tate, who had 5 catches for 93 yards and 2 TDs in the previous matchup between the Rams/Hawks. In that 6 week span where WR1’s have torched St. Louis, 3 of the 6 WR1’s were also able to find pay dirt. They rank 22nd against WRs in fantasy points allowed over the last 5 weeks, but the biggest issue has been their inability to stop an opponents favorite target, and Tate should be able to bounce back from a 2-week stretch where he had just 4 catches for 59 yards. Similarly, look for Doug Baldwin, who leads the Seahawks in targets over the last two weeks, to be a factor for Russell Wilson here. Percy Harvin will again sit this game out, leaving Tate, Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse as the primary receiving threats.

STL @ SEA – Daily Fantasy Relevant

Denver at Oakland

Denver Broncos Oakland Raiders
Broncos Raiders
Sun – 4:25PM ET O.co Coliseum
Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts
-11.5 53.5 32.5 11.5 53.5 21
Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush
Offense 38.1 1 1 14 Offense 20.5 25 24 8
Defense 25.7 22 28 8 Defense 27.9 27 26 11
Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE
Oakland 27 28 23 12 Denver 26 22 21 26
Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1 Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1
Thomas 137 9.1 9.7 14.0 Moore 79 6.6 2.5 3.0
Decker 132 8.7 11.3 17.0 Streater 91 6.0 8.0 5.0
Welker 110 8.5 10.0 Holmes 44 4.9 7.3 8.0
Thomas 84 6.5 7.7 8.0 Rivera 56 3.7 5.3 3.0

Denver Broncos

With the NFL flexing the Patriots game into the 4:30 time slot, the Broncos are guaranteed to need to bring their starters out to lock up the 1 seed in the AFC. That’s terrific news for DFS as the best QB in football this season gets to face one of the worst secondaries. Back in Week 3, Peyton threw for 373 and 3 TDs against these Raiders, and things have somehow only gotten worse for Oakland. They’ve allowed a 7 TD game to Nick Foles, and a 5 TD game to Jamaal Charles where Charles accounted for nearly all of his points and yards in the screen game. They’re allowing the 3rd most FPPG to QBs over the last 5 weeks and 5th most over the last 3 weeks despite losing all of their last 5 games and never really forcing an opponent to throw a lot from behind. Manning on the other hand has at least 397 passing yards in 3 of his last 4 games since losing to the Patriots, with at least 4 passing TDs in those 3 games and 15 total Pass TDs in that four game span. It’s a matchup of strength vs. weakness, and Manning and company should be able to exploit that consistently come Sunday. The Broncos will however be without Wes Welker again on Sunday, meaning Andre Caldwell and Jacob Tamme should see more pronounced roles in the offense. Here’s Manning’s target breakdown over 2 games without Wes:

D. Thomas (19 tgts), Decker (22 tgts), Caldwell (13 tgts), Julius (16 tgts), Tamme (5 tgts)

Last week he went back to the money-makers with Demaryius and Decker seeing 32 combined targets and Orange Julius getting thrown at 8 times. Both Decker and Demaryius had over 20 fantasy points, proving that a Broncos stack is an efficient way to make money this season. You could have even added in Julius Thomas, whose 6 catch, 78 yard and 1 TD game was one of the best among TE’s in Week 16. If you had the four players (Manning, Thomas, Decker, and Thomas), you got 81.2 fantasy points out of just those four, for an admittedly steep price.

The rushing attack could have success in this one also, especially if the Broncos are able to step on the gas early. Montee Ball is the most likely candidate to see garbage time carries, but his 7 touches combined over the last 2 games is a bit worrisome. Last week, Knowshon Moreno averaged nearly 7 yards per carry, going for 76 yards on 11 touches. Oakland ranks dead last against running backs over the last 5 weeks and 3 weeks splits, so both Ball and Moreno are top tier options for Week 17 action.

Oakland Raiders

The Raiders have made the decision to go with Terrelle Pryor in Week 17, and apparently Pryor’s agent thinks it’s a bush league move by the organization to attempt and embarrass Pryor to run him out of town. Pryor has little upside in the passing game, but his ability to rush makes him a viable fantasy threat each and every week. He has 3 games in 8 starts with over 90 rushing yards on the year, topping 100+ rush yards in 2 of those. In fact, one of his only impressive passing performances came against the Broncos in Week 3 when he had 281 yards and 1 PaTD. He should be able to run a bit more in this game than he did there, especially considering how Von Miller was placed on IR this week, which is a crushing blow to the Denver defense and takes away their most athletic linebacker in a game where their opponent is one of the best scramblers the NFL has to offer. With Pryor starting, you can take away most of the value for Rod Streater on the outside and add that onto Denarius Moore. Moore saw 62 targets in 8 starts for Pryor, including 3 double digit target games. Pryor likes to scramble and throw deep, which fits into an athletic receiver like Moore’s style better than it would into a more polished route runner like Streater.

The rushing game will again be a muddled mess with Darren McFadden and Rashad Jennings splitting up snaps while Marcel Reece takes over in most passing situations. The Broncos rank 20th against the rush in terms of FP-allowed over the last 5 weeks, but the uncertainty of touches in this situation make the Raiders RBs an avoid in Week 17.

DEN @ OAK – Daily Fantasy Relevant

Kansas City at San Diego

Kansas City Chiefs San Diego Chargers
Chiefs Chargers
Sun – 4:25PM ET Qualcomm Stadium
Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts
9.5 45 17.75 -9.5 45 27.25
Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush
Offense 27.1 6 23 9 Offense 24.6 14 4 13
Defense 18.5 4 23 21 Defense 21.6 11 29 10
Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE
San Diego 21 11 29 14 Kansas City 16 15 19 1
Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1 Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1
Bowe 105 6.9 6.3 10.0 Allen 97 6.9 5.0 7.0
Avery 72 4.7 3.0 4.0 Brown 68 4.5 4.0 5.0
McCluster 75 5.5 4.0 3.0 Royal 62 4.4 4.7 4.0
Fasano 34 3.8 4.0 4.0 Gates 111 7.2 4.0 3.0

Kansas City Chiefs

KC is one of a very small number of teams this weekend that is both in the playoffs and has absolutely nothing left to play for. Meanwhile, their opponent San Diego has to win and get some serious help to find their way into the playoffs but they still need to win. KC has already announced that Dwayne Bowe, Justin Houston and Tamba Hali (we’ll discuss Hali/Houston more in the SD breakdown) will sit this one out and a number of other starters will likely be seeing the bench after 1-2 quarters or series of action. KC is locked into their seed, so there is absolutely no reason for them to come out and risk injury to guys like Charles and Smith. So instead of breaking down the matchups and various starters against SD, let’s take a look at which players will likely have some sleeper value.

1) Knile Davis – RB

Davis has actually had moderate success when given the opportunity. He does have 2 touchdowns in the last three weeks and 66 rushing yards on 21 carries. San Diego’s front seven has actually been pretty stout, but when considering an option like Davis you’re looking more at the overall value of the play and less at the matchup.

2) Junior Hemingway – WR

With Bowe already ruled out, Hemingway should step into a more pronounced role with likely backup QB Chase Daniel throwing his way. Hemingway’s only real stand out performance was a 3 catch, 42 yard game with a TD 5 weeks back but he’s an athletic WR who can get down the field and gets to face a SD defense that has allowed the 3rd most FPPG to opposing WRs on the season.

3) Chase Daniel – QB

If you want to go with a DEEP sleeper, maybe consider taking a chance on Daniel. You can bet he plays the vast majority of snaps and he is an athletic backup QB who has legs to run and can be a fantasy threat against a SD defense that has struggled at times defending the pass.

San Diego Chargers

Needing a win, the Chargers are expected to go full steam in this one with Rivers, Allen, Mathews, Gates, Woodhead and the rest of the offense to see their normal number of snaps. The matchup might look a little harder than it actually is, and I’ve been slamming the KC secondary for a number of weeks now as overrated. The KC strength is their front seven, but with news that both Tamba Hali and Justin Houston will sit this one out from start to finish, their ability to turn opponents over drops dramatically. The last time these teams played, Rivers absolutely annihilated the KC defense for 392 yards and 3 passing TDs, and that game was in Kansas City. Keenan Allen had a whopping 9 receptions for 124 yards and that was a breakout game for TE2 Ladarius Green as he posted 3 grabs for 80 yards and 1 TD. After letting Andrew Luck go for 241 and a score in Week 16, the Chiefs are now allowing the 2nd most FPPG to Quarterbacks over their last 5 games. That includes 12 TD passes allowed and over 290 passing yards to 3 different QBs. They’re also allowing the 2nd most FPPG to wide receivers in that 5 game span, with 4 different WRs having at least 80 receiving yards against them.

The rushing attack for SD has been the glue to their offense in recent weeks though, and Ryan Mathews is finally living up to the hype he once was touted for. He fell a yard shy of his 3rd consecutive 100+ rushing yard performance in Week 16, and has a rushing TD in each of his last three games as well. Without Hali and Houston, the KC front 7 is much less intimidating. Add in that their true studs will likely play sparingly, and there’s not much to fear when considering Mathews in Week 17. The Chiefs also haven’t exactly been a rock solid defense against the run in recent weeks. Looking at their stats allowed over the past few weeks, a number of backs have had success against them.

Matthews had 55 rushing yards and a TD on 14 touches in the Week 12 matchup between these teams and should be protecting the ball late with a lead given how little this game means to Kansas City. That could mean a hugely productive day.

KC @ SD – Daily Fantasy Relevant

San Francisco at Arizona

San Francisco 49ers Arizona Cardinals
49ers Cardinals
Sun – 4:25PM ET Univ. of Phoenix Stadium
Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts Vegas Odds Sprd Total Proj.Pts
0 42.5 21.25 0 42.5 21.25
Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush Tm Stats PPG Scoring Pass Rush
Offense 25.5 10 31 3 Offense 23.9 16 13 23
Defense 16.8 3 4 5 Defense 20.1 7 15 1
Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE Opp. Def vs. Pos QB RB WR TE
Arizona 17 1 6 32 San Francisco 3 9 8 10
Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1 Rec. Targets Total Seas Last3 Last1
Boldin 119 7.9 7.7 7.0 Fitzgerald 125 8.3 8.7 5.0
Crabtree 25 6.3 7.0 7.0 Floyd 100 6.7 5.0 5.0
Manningham 23 3.8 3.0 Roberts 70 4.7 2.3 2.0
Davis 79 5.6 4.3 3.0 Housler 51 4.3 3.0 2.0

San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers are coming into this game with a range of possibilities for their playoff seeding. A win would be nice, but they have already clinched at least a berth. Expect their starters to still go full tilt in this one. As most matchups in Week 17 are, this is a rematch of a divisional game we’ve already been able to preview this season. In Week 6, Kaepernick threw for 252 and 2 scores while Vernon Davis had far and away his best game of the season. Vernon had 180 receiving yards and 2 scores on 8 catches against one of the worst defenses vs. tight end that the NFL has ever seen. After Zach Miller found the end zone on his only catch of the week last week, the Cards have now allowed 16 receiving touchdowns to tight ends on the season. Davis is the premiere matchup for San Fran this weekend to exploit, and will be hungry to get himself involved in the passing game after having a 5 game touchdown streak snapped on MNF against Atlanta a week ago. Vernon was completely shut out of that one and he was only targeted 3 times, compared to the 8 he saw in the Week 6 game vs. ARI.

The other player who could exploit the Cardinals defense is Michael Crabtree, who now has 6 or more targets in each of his last 3 games. The Cardinals have struggled against WR2’s, or anyone not being covered by Patrick Peterson. Even Peterson himself has struggled with quicker, less physical receivers similar to Crabtree. Kendall Wright was able to dink and dunk his way to 12 receptions for 150 yards a couple weeks back, and speedsters such as Ted Ginn, Harry Douglas, DeAndre Hopkins and Ace Sanders have all posted good stat lines against the Arizona secondary this season. Their defense is good, but not immune to letting up the big game.

Arizona Cardinals

Arizona went into Seattle last weekend and did the unthinkable. They kept their playoff hopes alive with a critical victory in Seattle. Carson Palmer was picked 4 times, but both Andre Ellington and Rashard Mendenhall ran for over 60 yards against the Seahawks front seven in the victory. Looking back at Palmer vs. SF in Week 6, he was able to put up some impressive stats while throwing for 298 and 2 scores with 2 INTs. The SF secondary has definitely struggled at times this season, and Matt Ryan was able to exploit that as well a week ago in Candlestick Park on MNF. Ryan had 348 passing yards of his own with 2 scores, while Roddy White torched San Fran for 12 catches, 141 yards and 1 TD. Overall, the 49ers have allowed 6 passing touchdowns over their last 4 games and 4 of those have come in the last two weeks against Mike Glennon and Matt Ryan. That is good to hear for Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald, who had a 6 catch, 117 yard and 1 TD game against the 49ers in that earlier matchup. The 49ers defense is still one of the best in football, but they have had some pretty bad games this season and the Cardinals were able to find the voids early on and may be able to do so again this weekend.

SF @ ARI – Daily Fantasy Relevant

About the Author

Ethan
Ethan Haskell (Ethan)