NFL Weekly Grind Down: Week Four
Welcome to the RotoGrinders Weekly NFL Grind Down Article. There’s no better place to start your research for NFL action in the week ahead than the Grind Down. Each week, we break down every game in an effort to better prepare you when building your daily fantasy lineups.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
San Francisco at St. Louis
| San Francisco 49ers | St. Louis Rams | |||||||||
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| Thurs – 8:25PM ET | Edward Jones Dome | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| -3 | 42 | 22.5 | 3 | 42 | 19.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Off. | 14.7 | 29 | 23 | 19 | Off. | 19.3 | 23 | 8 | 29 | |
| Def. | 28.0 | 25 | 8 | 29 | Def. | 28.7 | 26 | 23 | 16 | |
| Top Players | FP-S | FP-3 | DvP | FP-A | Top Players | FP-S | FP-3 | DvP | FP-A | |
| Kaepernick | 14.82 | 14.82 | 20 | 20.45 | Bradford | 20.75 | 20.75 | 17 | 17.15 | |
| Gore | 9.43 | 9.43 | 27 | 23.53 | Richardson | 11.30 | 11.30 | 32 | 27.24 | |
| Boldin | 14.57 | 14.57 | 27 | 37.78 | Austin | 13.75 | 13.75 | 10 | 24.45 | |
| Davis | 14.15 | 14.15 | 14 | 9.65 | Cook | 12.00 | 12.00 | 8 | 6.33 | |
San Francisco
- You have to be careful not to fall into the trap of determining a player’s worth based on one or two week’s of bad performances, it’s the classic overreaction that we see in the NFL. Yes, Kaep has played bad in his last two games against the Colts and the Seahawks, but do you remember how great everyone thought he was just a few weeks ago after he torched the Packers? You have to be able to put that behind you and look forward to the matchup this week against the Rams. The Niners had some success running the ball last week and I expect them to try to establish that ground game early. This should open things up for Kaep in the passing game after only completing one pass that was 10 yards or more downfield last week. The Rams haven’t been great against QB’s so far this season, currently ranking 20th against opposing QB’s. I like Kaep this week and I like that this game is in a dome. Rating = 8
- It was a bit surprising that the Niners didn’t focus on the run more last week. Frank Gore was having success on the ground with over 80 yards on only 11 carries. Look for them to try and establish that run game early this week. The Niners are a team that is built to protect a lead because once they get ahead, they can unleash that defense. The Rams are ranked 27th against opposing RB’s so Gore should be able to find some holes in that defense. Rating = 6
- The WR position for the Niners is really thin. You can tell how much they miss the downfield threat of Crabtree. A lot of people are wanting to avoid Anquan Boldin this week, but I think you have to set a reasonable expectation for him. He’s not going to have many weeks like he had against the Packers. If you expect that, you will be disappointed time and time again. If they can get the run game going, it should open things up for Boldin downfield. The rest of the WR’s you can safely avoid.
- The health of Vernon Davis is more important to this offense than ever. He is a big part of their offense so you will have to monitor his injury status as the week progresses. I will update as more injury news comes out, but if he can give it a go Saturday, he looks like a nice option for the price. Rating = 6
St. Louis Rams
- The Rams offense was nowhere to be found last week, they only converted 1 of 18 third downs and piled up more than a third of their total yardage in garbage time in the last 4 minutes of the game. The Rams day was full of bad offensive line play and dropped passes. You really can’t fault Bradford for last week’s performance. This week it doesn’t look to get any better though as they are facing a Niners defense that is not happy with it’s performance last week. Losing Aldon Smith hurts, but the Niners still have a very formidable defense. Rating = 2
- The Niners defense is currently ranked dead last against opposing RB’s. While I would normally be all over stats like that, I’m just not buying it. Daryl Richardson hasn’t topped 65 rushing yards in any game this season and missed last week’s game with an injury. You can monitor his status throughout the week, but I really don’t think it matters who is starting at RB this week. There are better options all around. Rating = 3
- Chris Givens really had a rough go of it last week, he was targeted 8 times and had as many drops as he did catches. Not only that, but he ended up fumbling the ball on one of those catches. If you are thinking about taking a WR from the Rams, I think you have to look to Tavon Austin, he catches a lot of short passes and has had 6 catches in each of the first 3 weeks.
- Jared Cook has disappeared, if anyone finds him please return him to the Rams practice facility. Cook did manage to catch 5 balls last week but most of that was in garbage time. He needs to step up for this offense to have any kind of success against the Niners. The Niners have always been one of the best in the league at shutting down opposing TE’s though. Rating = 3
Chicago at Detroit
| Chicago Bears | Detroit Lions | |||||||||
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| Sun – 1:00PM ET | Ford Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| 2.5 | 47.5 | 22.5 | -2.5 | 47.5 | 25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Off. | 31.7 | 3 | 21 | 17 | Off. | 27.3 | 6 | 2 | 26 | |
| Def. | 24.7 | 19 | 24 | 8 | Def. | 23.0 | 16 | 18 | 15 | |
| Top Players | FP-S | FP-3 | DvP | FP-A | Top Players | FP-S | FP-3 | DvP | FP-A | |
| Cutler | 16.77 | 16.77 | 5 | 12.07 | Stafford | 20.27 | 20.27 | 15 | 16.80 | |
| Forte | 18.53 | 18.53 | 31 | 27.18 | Bush | 17.75 | 17.75 | 2 | 10.88 | |
| Marshall | 16.30 | 16.30 | 11 | 24.65 | Johnson | 17.77 | 17.77 | 25 | 37.55 | |
| Bennett | 12.50 | 12.50 | 12 | 7.95 | Pettigrew | 1.43 | 1.43 | 20 | 11.98 | |
Chicago
- If you look at the defense vs. position numbers, your first reaction would probably be the same as mine was: The Lions are really ranked 5th against opposing QB’s? To me, this says more about the Lions schedule than their actual defense. They have faced both Christian Ponder and Carson Palmer who are below average QB’s so those numbers are a bit inflated. I think there is a good shot for Jay Cutler to expose this secondary this week and I like that he finds Forte on those screens and dump offs because they just add to Cutler’s yardage. With the matchup, Cutler is close to a top 10 QB this week. Rating = 6
- Matt Forte was on his way to a monster game last week against the Steelers until the Bears took the gas off the pedal. In every game this season Forte received at least 20 touches and has tallied up over 90 yards from scrimmage. He has also caught at least 4 passes in each game and has scored a TD in 2 of the 3 games. He is one of my favorite backs this week against the Lions, especially on sites that are full PPR sites. Rating = 9
- Vegas has this game with a pretty high total and I think both offenses should be able to move the ball. Brandon Marshall had a down week against the Steelers, but they got up so big that they really didn’t have to throw the ball much after that. My favorite play in this game is Forte, but if you want to take Cutler instead, I think you could pair him up with either Brandon Marshall or Alshon Jeffery who caught 7 balls last week and is seemingly ready for that big breakout game.
- Martellus Bennett is one of the most talented TE’s in the NFL, but he seems content to take games off. I really think he could have a nice week against the Lions, but if Cutler locks on to Marhsall, he could end up being an afterthought. Rating = 6
Detroit
- Matthew Stafford has a very nice game last week against the Redskins, but to be fair the Skins have one of the worst defenses in the league. Stafford threw for 385 yards and a couple of TD’s, including a late one to Megatron. When you look at his matchup this week, it may sound a bit intimidating since he is facing the Bears, but Stafford averaged 270 yards and 2 TD’s in the two meetings with the Bears last season. He also has much better RB’s at his disposal this season in Reggie Bush and Joique Bell. Vegas also like the Lions as they are favored by 2.5. I think Stafford makes a nice under the radar play. Rating = 6
- Reggie Bush is practicing in full this week, but I’m not sure that they are going to get him as many touches as he saw in Week 1. Joique Bell has really been playing well and will take away snaps from Bush. Rating = 5
- Calvin Johnson is Megatron for a reason. He can have a big game against any opponent on any given week. For that reason, he is always in play. The Bears defense got torched by Antonio Brown last week, but the Steelers were playing catch up most of the game and the Bears secondary isn’t that bad. Calvin is in play because he is Calvin Johnson, but a guy that is high on my list as a nice value play is Ryan Broyles. Nate Burleson broke his arm in a car crash which makes Broyles their main slot receiver. If the Bears try to take away Calvin, that will open up things for Broyles underneath.
- The Lions have 3 TE’s and none of them have been able to produce anything of fantasy importance. They have a combined 11 catches for 75 yards on the season. Rating = 1
Indianapolis at Jacksonville
| Indianapolis Colts | Jacksonville Jaguars | |||||||||
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| Sun – 1:00PM ET | EverBank Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| -8 | 43 | 25.5 | 8 | 43 | 17.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Off. | 22.7 | 17 | 26 | 4 | Off. | 9.3 | 32 | 29 | 30 | |
| Def. | 16.0 | 6 | 11 | 26 | Def. | 30.7 | 29 | 9 | 32 | |
| Top Players | FP-S | FP-3 | DvP | FP-A | Top Players | FP-S | FP-3 | DvP | FP-A | |
| Luck | 19.84 | 19.84 | 25 | 21.50 | Gabbert | 4.44 | 4.44 | 9 | 13.98 | |
| Richardson | 9.53 | 9.53 | 25 | 22.35 | Jones-Drew | 7.00 | 7.00 | 16 | 18.58 | |
| Wayne | 11.83 | 11.83 | 15 | 28.35 | Shorts | 12.37 | 12.37 | 7 | 23.35 | |
| Fleener | 6.13 | 6.13 | 18 | 11.62 | Lewis | 16 | 10.55 | |||
Indianapolis
- We all know how bad this Jaguars team is. They are bad on both ends of the ball and being a Jaguars fan, I have to watch it each week. Andrew Luck and the Colts were really impressive last week against the Niners and put up a performance that very few people were expecting. Luck moved the ball and found open receivers. He has a great matchup this week against the Jaguars who gave up 5 passing TD’s last week to the Seahawks. It’s really hard for me to see Luck having a bad game unless they get up big early and decide to give it to their new RB T-Rich the rest of the game. Rating = 7
- Ahmad Bradshaw has been ruled out of this week’s game against the Jaguars which opens the door for Trent Richardson to have a monster game. The Colts don’t have any other RB’s so you can expect Richardson to get a full load this week. Richardson immediately jumps up into my top 5 RB’s of the week against this awful Jaguars defense. Rating = 8
- Reggie Wayne has had back to back weeks under 10 fantasy points. I think that should change this week against the Jags. Wayne still leads the team in targets and has hauled in an incredible 90% of the balls thrown his way. I think he is head and shoulders the play above both T.Y. Hilton and Darrius Heyward-Bey.
- Coby Fleener is going to be the biggest benefactor of the injury to Dwayne Allen. While it’s never good to see players go out with injuries, you can definitely exploit the opportunities that injuries create in daily fantasy sports. Fleener had a down week against the Niners, but almost all TE’s do. Expect him to bounce back nicely this week. Rating = 6
Jacksonville
- I’m a little bit disappointed that the Jaguars are going to give the reigns back to Blaine Gabbert this week. While Chad Henne didn’t have that much success in his two starts, I am convinced that he is a better QB than Gabbert is right now. Gabbert is going to be super cheap this week and even though I don’t love the Colts defense most weeks, I think they should be able to keep Gabbert in check. Rating = 3
- I am going to fall for it again. Maurice Jones-Drew scored his first TD of the season last week and while it was in garbage time, I think it will help him get it going. MJD has always ran the ball well against the Colts, even back tot he Manning days. MJD is super cheap across the board and should finally pay off for those that are willing to take him. Rating = 6
- Do you know who leads the league in targets? Cecil Shorts. I bet he wasn’t even in your top 10 guesses. Shorts is a very talented WR, but I like his value a lot more with Henne throwing him the ball than with Gabbert. Shorts is a nice deep field threat and Gabbert rarely throws the ball further than 10 yards downfield.
- Marcedes Lewis could come back this week. If he does, he is really the only recommended fantasy option in this passing game. Like I said, Gabbert loves those 5-10 yard throws and often relied on Lewis last season. He could be a good option if you want to punt the TE position. Rating = 4
Seattle at Houston
| Seattle Seahawks | Houston Texans | |||||||||
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| Sun – 1:00PM ET | Reliant Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| -3 | 42.5 | 22.75 | 3 | 42.5 | 19.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Off. | 28.7 | 4 | 16 | 8 | Off. | 23.3 | 15 | 9 | 9 | |
| Def. | 9.0 | 1 | 1 | 12 | Def. | 27.3 | 24 | 2 | 9 | |
| Top Players | FP-S | FP-3 | DvP | FP-A | Top Players | FP-S | FP-3 | DvP | FP-A | |
| Wilson | 16.65 | 16.65 | 12 | 15.48 | Schaub | 17.84 | 17.84 | 1 | 9.72 | |
| Lynch | 15.37 | 15.37 | 10 | 16.67 | Foster | 11.57 | 11.57 | 3 | 12.78 | |
| Tate | 7.90 | 7.90 | 12 | 25.02 | Johnson | 12.77 | 12.77 | 1 | 16.55 | |
| Miller | 7.47 | 7.47 | 9 | 6.45 | Daniels | 12.00 | 12.00 | 3 | 4.67 | |
Seattle
- Seattle’s performance last week against the Jaguars was both expected and unexpected. Everyone predicted that they would blow the Jags out, but everyone thought that Lynch would be the fantasy stud. Lynch had a few chances around the goal line but could never get in. Russell Wilson on the other hand did not let his opportunities slip, he threw for 4 TD’s and then sat out the rest of the game. This week is a much tougher matchup however. Games like these are fun to watch, but don’t provide us with many fantasy options. I’d rather take a QB with more upside this week. Rating = 4
- Is it just me or does Marshawn Lynch dominate bad matchups and struggle in the good matchups? Lynch hurt a lot of lineups last week after only gaining 69 yards from scrimmage without a TD. The Texans are ranked 10th against opposing RB’s this season so if you want to take a shot on Lynch in a tough matchup, this could be the one to do it. Rating = 5
- The three headed monster of Sidney Rice, Doug Baldwin, and Golden Tate just isn’t that scary of a monster. Tate leads the team in receptions, but he only has 10 on the season. The Seahawks are a team that likes to pound the ball and play solid defense. I don’t see any fantasy value here, especially with Ed Reed in that Texans secondary.
- Zach Miller was one of my sleeper picks last week and he really paid off for anyone that took him. He caught 2 TD’s against the Jags. He’s not going to put up huge numbers, but he is a redzone threat and could provide you with a cheap TD. Rating = 3
Houston
- The Seahawks have been dominant on defense this season, take a quick look at the defense vs. position rankings. The Seahawks rank in the top 3 against QB’s, RB’s, WR’s, and TE’s. Matt Schaub struggled against the Ravens defense last week and it looks like he could struggle against the Seahawks this week. I think this is going to be a good game to watch, but not a good game for individual fantasy players. Rating = 4
- Arian Foster could be in play in a couple of places this week, but that’s only because his price is so low. Foster has really yet to show that explosiveness that we have come to expect from him, but I expect him to get better as the season progresses. He is still averaging over 5 yards per carry though so if the Texans can get him the touches, he should be able to make value. Rating = 4
- After the concussion two weeks ago, now Andre Johnson has a bruised shin. I don’t expect that to keep him out of the game this week, but these nagging little injuries can add up. I think DeAndre Thompkins could make a decent GPP play because he has some nice upside, but you can safely avoid the WR’s in H2H and 50/50 leagues.
- Owen Daniels is a nice redzone threat for Schaub, but again, there are better options out there. Don’t over think this game, it will be tough for players to put up a lot of fantasy points. Rating = 3