NFL Weekly Grind Down: Week Four - Page 3

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2013-09-27 18:21:24

NY Giants at Kansas City

New York Giants						Kansas City Chiefs
Sun – 1:00PM ET						Arrowhead Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		4.5	44	19.75				-4.5	44	24.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Off.	18.0	27	6	32		Off.	23.7	12	27	11
Def.	38.3	32	17	27		Def.	11.3	2	5	25
Top Players	FP-S	FP-3	DvP	FP-A		Top Players	FP-S	FP-3	DvP	FP-A
Manning	17.15	17.15	7	12.78		Smith	18.09	18.09	27	22.20
Wilson	1.17	1.17	7	15.61		Charles	21.50	21.50	24	21.97
Cruz	17.37	17.37	9	24.03		Bowe	6.50	6.50	23	35.09
Myers	10.43	10.43	6	5.83		Fasano	2.70	2.70	27	14.88

New York Giants

• There figure to be a lot of close games this week, most of the spreads are within a TD. Can the Giants finally get it going and pick up their first win of the season? While Eli Manning numbers on the year don’t look bad as he has over 900 yards and 5 passing TD’s, he also has 8 interceptions and most of his production has come during garbage time. We keep waiting for the Giants to turn it on like they seemingly do every year, but maybe they just don’t have the pieces this season. Manning faces a tough Chiefs defense that is ranked in the top 10 against every position. The Giants could be in for another long week. Rating = 4
• David Wilson wasn’t the answer. Da’Rell Scott wasn’t the answer. Brandon Jacobs clearly wasn’t the answer. Who else can the Giants turn to? Maybe they can give Tiki Barber a call. There is no reason you should be thinking about any of these RB’s this week. Rating = 1
• Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks are both under priced this week, but it’s for good reason. The Giants have had problems moving the ball and defenses have been able to focus on the pass because they know they Giants can’t run the ball. If you are playing in any of the big qualifiers, I think you have to have some exposure to both of these guys, but the way the Giants are playing, it’s best to stay away in H2H’s and 50/50’s.
• Brandon Myers is second only to Victor Cruz on targets this season. He’s already been targeted 25 times so Manning is looking for him. He’s a decent TE2 option as a value play. Rating = 5

Kansas City Chiefs

• The Giants defense has already given up a combined 115 points through 3 games. While the Chiefs offense isn’t exactly the most dynamic offense in the league, there are definitely some plays against the Giants. Alex Smith has looked good as a Chief and has led them to a 3-0 record. He is doing what he does best, he manages the game and the picks his spots. So far it’s been working for him. I rank him right below Joe Flacco this week as my favorite cheap QB options. Rating = 6
• Jamaal Charles is battling it out with Matt Forte as my #1 RB this week. If you can manage to take them both, I highly recommend it, especially on full PPR sites. Charles has racked up over 100 yards from scrimmage in each of his first 3 games and is averaging 6 catches per game. On PPR sites, that’s an extra 6 points per week. Alex Smith finds him when the play breaks down and the sky is the limit for him against the Chiefs this week. Rating = 9
• Dwayne Bowe burned a few people that played in the Thursday leagues. He only caught 1 pass for 4 yards against the Eagles who have one of the worst defenses in the league. He was outshined by Donnie Avery who had a huge game. I think everyone is going to avoid Bowe this week, but I see him as a nice value play even in H2H and 50/50 games. His price is so cheap and he is still Smith’s #1 option. Expect Avery to come back down to earth.
• Anthony Fasano may be back this week, but I don’t think it matters too much. The plays for the Chiefs are Smith, Charles, and Bowe. Rating = 2

NY Jets at Tennessee

New York Jets						Tennessee Titans
Sun – 4:05PM ET						LP Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		4	39	17.5				-4	39	21.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Off.	18.3	26	17	6		Off.	20.0	21	30	6
Def.	16.7	7	7	6		Def.	18.7	10	10	13
Top Players	FP-S	FP-3	DvP	FP-A		Top Players	FP-S	FP-3	DvP	FP-A
Smith	16.61	16.61	8	13.87		Locker	16.33	16.33	10	14.08
Powell	13.07	13.07	21	19.58		Johnson	8.93	8.93	1	10.77
Hill	11.27	11.27	13	25.11		Washington	10.07	10.07	16	28.38
Winslow	6.83	6.83	24	13.75		Walker	6.80	6.80	5	5.47

New York Jets

• Geno Smith has been very impressive in his first 3 starts. He has averaged more fantasy points per game this season than Tom Brady, Colin Kaepernick, and Andy Dalton. He draws a tough matchup against the Titans this week who are currently ranked 10th against opposing QB’s. I think Geno’s upside is limited in this matchup, but he keeps making plays and has been fun to watch. Rating = 4
• It sounds like Chris Ivory is going to be out this week against the Titans which is great news for Bilal Powell and his fantasy value. If you have read my columns before, you know how much I hate taking RB’s that are in a timeshare. With Ivory’s injury, expect Powell to be the workhorse back and it sounds like they are going to be using him as an every down back. I wish the matchup was better, but the Titans run D has faced some easy opponents as far as the RB’s are concerned (Steelers & Chargers). I think Powell should make value this week and is a recommended play in H2H and 50/50 games. Rating = 5
• Here is the target distribution for the Jets WR’s: Stephen Hill 23, Santonio Holmes 19, the rest of the WR’s 23. So Geno is looking for Hill and Holmes. Both guys had big weeks last week but I’m not sure how much production you can expect out of them this week against the Titans.
• Dustin Keller hasn’t done much since Week 1 and can be ignored for now. Rating = 2

Tennessee

• Last week, I was high on Jake Locker against the Chargers, but he far exceeded my expectations. He finished with over 28 fantasy points including the game winning TD throw. I loved that he was making plays with his feet, his greatest weapon isn’t his arm, it’s his athleticism. If he can make plays like that again this week, he will really have my attention going forward. But for now, I think you can find safer options. Rating = 5
• Chris Johnson didn’t have the week that I was hoping for. Anytime that you are thinking about taking Johnson you are hoping for him to break that long run, but he hasn’t had many long runs this season. This Jets team has been very good against the run this season and should be able to bottle him up. Rating = 3
• Kendall Wright and Nate Washington lead the team in targets and I expect that to continue as long as Kenny Britt keeps up his antics. Washington and Locker really developed a nice chemistry last season and he was Locker’s go to guy last week in the 4th quarter. I think he will lead the team in both catches and yardage again this week.
• Delanie Walker hasn’t topped 50 receiving yards yet this season so the upside really isn’t there. The Jets have done a nice job defending TE’s too. Rating = 3

Dallas at San Diego

Dallas Cowboys						San Diego Chargers
Sun – 4:25PM ET						Qualcomm Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-1	47	24				1	47	23
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Off.	27.7	5	18	16		Off.	26.0	9	12	18
Def.	18.3	9	22	2		Def.	27.0	23	32	28
Top Players	FP-S	FP-3	DvP	FP-A		Top Players	FP-S	FP-3	DvP	FP-A
Romo	17.35	17.35	32	29.54		Rivers	21.94	21.94	28	22.54
Murray	18.07	18.07	11	17.03		Mathews	8.13	8.13	4	13.26
Bryant	13.53	13.53	28	38.08		Royal	16.93	16.93	21	34.21
Witten	11.63	11.63	28	15.35		Gates	11.43	11.43	21	12.07

Dallas

• Tony Romo has topped 15 fantasy points in each of the first 3 weeks which is nice to see. Factoring in his price, Romo is one of my favorite plays at QB this week against the Chargers. The Chargers rank dead last against opposing QB’s giving up almost 30 fantasy points per game to opposing QB’s. Schaub, Vick, adn Locker all had monster games against the Chargers and I’m hoping Romo can add his name to that list. Rating = 8
• DeMarco Murray was unstoppable last week. He totaled 203 yards from scrimmage and added a TD as well. The Rams just could not tackle him. While I do like him again this week, I think Romo and the receiving options are the best route in this game. Rating = 6
• Miles Austin is a bit banged up so I would definitely avoid using him this week, but Dez Bryant looks like he could top all WR’s in fantasy points. Dez is averaging 9 targets per game and the fact that Austin is banged up could mean Romo looking his way a couple more times. Another player to look at if Austin is ruled out is Terrance Williams, he’s a very nice sleeper.
• Jason Witten is also in play. You will see a few Romo/Dez/Witten combos on my qualifier teams this week. Witten has the second most targets on the team and should be good for his usual 6-8 catches. Rating = 7

San Diego

• Phillip Rivers has been a lot better than most people thought through 3 games; he’s definitely better than I thought he would be. He’s averaged almost 22 fantasy points per game and the Chargers don’t have a great running game so we should continue to see them be a pass first offense. The Cowboys have been below average against QB’s so far this season and I think Rivers makes a nice under the radar play. Rating = 6
• Ryan Mathews is going to get his 15+ touches. So far this season, he hasn’t done anything spectacular with those touches but watching him play you always feel like he is going to have one of those monster games. I’ve been thinking that for years now though and have yet to see one. He’s a decent cheap option with limited upside. Rating = 4
• Eddie Royal came back down to earth last week after hauling in 5 TD’s in the first 2 weeks. He only has 16 targets on the season which isn’t very promising. I think you can temper your expectations on him a bit. I was expecting more out of Vincent Brown last week with Floyd out, but he only managed 2 catches for 11 yards.
• If you are thinking about taking Rivers this week and want to handcuff him with one of his receiving options, Antonio Gates is your man. He looks healthy and is playing great. He also leads the team in targets and should be the leading receiver again this week. I think he is on the same level as Witten in this matchup. Rating = 7

Washington at Oakland

Washington Redskins						Oakland Raiders
Sun – 4:25PM ET						O.co Coliseum
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		**	**	**				**	**	**
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Off.	22.3	19	5	20		Off.	19.0	24	28	3
Def.	32.7	31	31	30		Def.	22.3	15	16	18
Top Players	FP-S	FP-3	DvP	FP-A		Top Players	FP-S	FP-3	DvP	FP-A
Griffin III	19.73	19.73	23	21.27		Pryor	16.92	16.92	31	27.71
Morris	12.07	12.07	5	13.28		McFadden	12.23	12.23	29	25.31
Garcon	15.50	15.50	24	36.35		Moore	11.40	11.40	32	44.00
Davis	2.00	2.00	19	11.83		Rivera	3.80	3.80	23	13.12

Washington

• Robert Griffin III keeps putting up big numbers but almost all of that production has come in garbage time. That’s not neccessarily a bad thing though. You hear a lot of people griping about RGIII, but I think that has more to do with their record than it does his play. They’ve gotten off to bad starts and then have done too little too late. I am expecting a different Redskins offense this week though. The Raiders have one of the worst defenses in the NFL and I think RGIII is going to put up some great numbers. The fact that RGIII was scrambling a bit more last week really has me liking him as a top QB play this week. Rating = 8
• Alfred Morris has had a very quiet season but it’s not because he hasn’t produced, he just hasn’t been on the field enough. The Redskins have gotten down in each of their first 3 games and then have put Roy Helu in as their passing back. I expect the Redskins to be ahead in this one so we should see Morris’ best producing game this season. The Raiders are ranked 29th against opposing RB’s which never hurts either. Rating = 7
• Pierre Garcon is getting the 3rd most targets in all of football. While he has only been able to catch 23 of this 37 targets, that’s still an average of almost 8 per game. I love him in this matchup and think he should be treated as a top 10 WR this week.
• Jordan Reed, Fred Davis, and Logan Paulsen are all below average options at TE this week, even against a bad Raiders team. Rating = 3

Oakland

• Terrelle Pryor looks like he is going to sit out this week so that means Matt Flynn will get the start. I don’t think Flynn is a huge dropoff for the receivers, but you definitely can’t expect the same fantasy production out of him because he doesn’t make plays with his feet like Pryor. He’s has good value this week, but is more of a GPP play than anything. Rating = 4
• Darren McFadden saved his fantasy owners from a terrible performance with a TD against the Broncos. He only rushed for 9 yards on 12 attempts but did manage to find the endzone. This week presents a much different matchup for McFadden. The Redskins haven’t been able to stop anyone and are giving up over 25 fantasy points per game to opposing RB’s. I love the matchup for Run DMC this week. Rating = 8
• Denarius Moore and Rod Streater are both interesting plays this week at WR. Their value doesn’t get hurt with Flynn starting because if anything Flynn will air it out a bit more than Pryor did. The Redskins have been giving up a lot of big plays and I could see Moore or Streater beating the Skins deep.
• Mychal Rivera is averaging less than 5 fantasy points per game and is another TE that has very little upside. Rating = 2

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