NFL Weekly Grind Down: Week Nine - Page 2
New Orleans at NY Jets
| New Orleans Saints | New York Jets | |||||||||
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| Sun – 1:00PM ET | MetLife Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| -5.5 | 45.5 | 25.5 | 5.5 | 45.5 | 20 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 28.0 | 5 | 3 | 25 | Offense | 17.9 | 27 | 22 | 13 | |
| Defense | 17.1 | 4 | 9 | 20 | Defense | 26.4 | 23 | 15 | 1 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| NY Jets | 21 | 3 | 24 | 20 | New Orleans | 4 | 18 | 16 | 5 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Colston | 40 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 6.0 | Hill | 46 | 5.8 | 6.7 | 7.0 | |
| Stills | 23 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 4.0 | Kerley | 41 | 5.9 | 7.0 | 4.0 | |
| Moore | 15 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 4.0 | Gates | 24 | 4.0 | 7.0 | ||
| Graham | 63 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 3.0 | Cumberland | 22 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 2.0 | |
New Orleans Saints
The Saints will take their 6-1 record to MetLife stadium on Sunday and their offense is clicking behind an incredible season from Drew Brees along with surprising outputs from Pierre Thomas and most recently, Kenny Stills. The Saints rank 6th in the NFL at 5.9 yards per play and posted 30+ points for the 3rd time this season last weekend. They’ve also scored no less than 27 points against any of the 3 AFC East opponents they’ve played so far. The big question mark here is Jimmy Graham, who is likely to play but in a limited capacity. Those words, ‘limited capacity’, pretty much set up a road block for any of the Saints receiving options. It was in perfect form last week, as Graham caught 2 of the TDs from Brees despite playing just 26% of snaps.
Defensively, the unit is much improved from a year ago behind coordinator Rob Ryan, but their rush defense remains the weakest bunch. They rank 18th against running backs, but that could be even lower if not for their uptempo offense which leaves most teams playing catch up via the pass. If Brother Rex can establish the run game early and control the pace, the Jets will be able to move the ball on the ground. The Saints rank dead last in the NFL, allowing 4.8 yards per carry so far this season.
Fantasy Relevant
- QB – Drew Brees is most certainly fantasy relevant. The Jets are 21st against opposing QBs and have allowed 2 of the last 4 QBs they’ve faced to post over 300 yards passing. They’ve also allowed a passing touchdown in all but one game this year.
- RB – Darren Sproles price is plummeting on DFS sites and he is a great candidate for a bounce back game against the Jets, who are terrific at shutting down the interior running game but can be exposed on screen passes. Pierre Thomas has also seen an uptick in targets, and both Sproles/Thomas are in the Top-10 for RB receptions this season.
- WR – Marques Colston let everyone down last week as Kenny Stills stole the show en route to a monster 129 yard, 2 score day. But he only caught 3 balls and more often than not, they won’t be 60 yard touchdown grabs. I’d avoid this until his targets and overall opportunities increase.
- TE – Jimmy Graham injury muddles everything. He’s not worth paying for when he’s only playing 25% of snaps, but he takes the key red zone touches away from others like Benjamin Watson. I’d avoid this situation.
New York Jets
Which Jets team will show up this week? It’s been Jekyll and Hyde for Rex Ryan’s bunch all season and if they continue their ‘win-one, lose-one’ trend, they’re apparently headed for a victory this weekend. They have 4 games with 13 points or less and 2 games with 30 points or more, so predicting their offense is certainly a challenge. PFF has their overall offense ranked as the 7th worst in the NFL though, and unless Geno can show any consistency, they can’t be trusted.
On defense, it’s all about an incredible front seven for the Jets who rank 9th in the NFL in sacks per game at 3.1 and have the leagues best yards allowed per rush attempt at 3.1 per carry. Their secondary is subpar, and rank 13th in the NFL at 6.4 yards allowed per pass attempt. New Orleans doesn’t have much of a ground and pound game, so the focus of this defense this week will have to be getting to QB Drew Brees before he has time to find the open receiver.
Fantasy Relevant
- QB – Geno Smith is a GPP-play only until he can show some consistency. Here’s his FP outputs by week so far:
Week One: 16.9 points
Week Two: 7.3 points
Week Three: 26.6 points
Week Four: 12.3 points
Week Five: 22.1 points
Week Six: 6.8 points
Week Seven: 21.5 points
Week Eight: 5.2 points
Basically, he’s averaging 21.8 fantasy points in wins this season and 7.8 in losses. If you think the Jets show up on Sunday and can beat the Saints, then play Geno. If not, avoid.
- RB – Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell continue to baffle as Powell came back and took 66% of snaps in Week 8. This is likely due to the way that game went, as Powell is the better pass-catching back. I’d argue that the Saints will also be able to put good points on the board and Powell should see more touches again this weekend.
- WR – The Jets wide receiving corps is complicated, but the injury to Jeff Cumberland should mean more involvement for Stephen Hill and Jeremy Kerley. The Saints rank 19th against WR2’s and Kerley is probably the better upside play for Week 9.
- TE – With Jeff Cumberland unlikely and Kellen Winslow suspended, Konrad Reuland and Patriot washout Zach Sudfeld will be the two TE’s for the Jets on Sunday. If you want to roll the dice on Sudfeld again, be my guest, but I’ll be passing.
Tennessee at St. Louis
| Tennessee Titans | St. Louis Rams | |||||||||
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| Sun – 1:00PM ET | Edward Jones Dome | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| -3 | 39.5 | 21.25 | 3 | 39.5 | 18.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 20.7 | 22 | 25 | 18 | Offense | 20.6 | 23 | 20 | 24 | |
| Defense | 20.9 | 10 | 7 | 24 | Defense | 24.8 | 21 | 12 | 23 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| St. Louis | 13 | 25 | 21 | 3 | Tennessee | 5 | 28 | 2 | 24 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Wright | 58 | 8.3 | 10.0 | Givens | 45 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 5.0 | ||
| Washington | 52 | 7.4 | 7.0 | Quick | 24 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 3.0 | ||
| Hunter | 9 | 1.5 | 1.5 | Pettis | 45 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 4.0 | ||
| Walker | 34 | 4.9 | 5.0 | Cook | 48 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 6.0 | ||
Tennessee Titans
The Titans have been off most radars for the last month, as they took a bye last week after scoring just 16.33 points per game in 3 losses prior. But don’t ignore the fact that they played the Chiefs, Seahawks and 49ers in that span; arguably the toughest three defenses in the NFL. Even so, Jake Locker returned in Week 7 and threw for over 300 yards against a tough 49ers secondary. They have some weapons on the offensive side of the ball with Nate Washington, Kendall Wright, Justin Hunter and Chris Johnson too. The main storyline for their offense this week was the claim that Shonn Greene and Chris Johnson will get 15-20 touches this weekend. I’m not buying that both will, but do think that whichever back is having better early success will see the majority of reps.
On defense, they’ve played tough all year thanks in large part to a secondary boasting Alterraun Verner and Jason McCourty who are both ranked in the Top-5 in pass coverage ratings on ProFootballFocus. They’ve had some struggles against WR2’s, but have absolutely locked down opponents top WR option most weeks this season. Their rush defense is a different story, ranking 24th in yards per game and 9th worst in the NFL at 4.2 yards allowed per carry.
Fantasy Relevant
- QB – Jake Locker is a GPP play, and the Rams rank 13th against opposing QBs but have improved of late. The Rams defense started the season allowing back-to-back QBs to throw for 300+ yards but haven’t allowed a QB over 210 yards since then.
- RB – Given Munchak’s claim that Greene and Johnson will share time in the backfield, the great matchup against the Rams becomes slightly diminished. I still think CJ2K has the home run hitter ability that can be valuable in GPPs, but wouldn’t consider him unless its at a reasonable price point.
- WR – Kendall Wright has been targeted 10 times per game this season and is absolutely in play this weekend, but consider Nate Washington as well. Both were targeted 10+ times in Week 7 against the Niners.
- TE – Delanie Walker has been a bit of a bust this season but hit value in Week 7 when he found paydirt. He now has at least 3 catches in each of his last 4 games and 2 TDs in that span.
St. Louis Rams
Jeff Fisher will take on his former team in St. Louis as he tries to resurrect a season of devastating injuries and disappointment. They come in at 3-5 and have mustered just 24 total points over the last 2 weeks. With Bradford out, Kellen Clemens is likely to remain the starter and he is really nothing better than a game manager. The bigger news is the injury to Zac Stacy, who had been establishing himself as a consistent RB threat for STL. If he can’t go, look for Isaiah Pead and Daryl Richardson to split snaps again.
On defense, they’ve righted the ship in the secondary and haven’t allowed over 300 yards passing since Week 2. Their rush defense is a mess though, and they rank 21st in the NFL at 4.1 yards allowed per carry. They’ve also allowed 3 backs to go for over 100 yards in the last 5 weeks.
Fantasy Relevant
- QB – Kellen Clemens is not fantasy relevant
- RB – If Stacy goes, the matchup is terrific and he’s reasonably priced on most sites. His upside continues to grow and he posted over 100 yards in the Week 8 loss against Seattle. If he sits, Richardson and Pead are likely to split snaps but knowing which will produce is difficult.
- WR – Given the tough matchup and backup QB, it’s hard to recommend any of the STL receivers. They also share the ball relatively evenly, as no receiver saw more than 6 targets in Week 8.
- TE – Jared Cook may be the best STL play of the weekend. If the Rams get down and are forced to throw, Cook will be a check down option for a QB who will likely try to keep it simple. The Titans also rank 24th in the NFL against opposing Tight Ends.
Minnesota at Dallas
| Minnesota Vikings | Dallas Cowboys | |||||||||
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| Sun – 1:00PM ET | AT&T Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| 10.5 | 47.5 | 18.5 | -10.5 | 47.5 | 29 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 23.3 | 16 | 27 | 17 | Offense | 28.8 | 4 | 8 | 27 | |
| Defense | 32.1 | 30 | 29 | 21 | Defense | 23.2 | 17 | 32 | 17 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Dallas | 32 | 26 | 23 | 29 | Minnesota | 27 | 32 | 26 | 23 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Jennings | 46 | 6.6 | 7.7 | 3.0 | Bryant | 77 | 9.5 | 10.0 | 6.0 | |
| Simpson | 51 | 7.3 | 6.3 | 3.0 | Williams | 38 | 4.8 | 6.3 | 10.0 | |
| Patterson | 20 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 3.0 | Beasley | 24 | 3.8 | 5.0 | 3.0 | |
| Rudolph | 44 | 6.3 | 8.0 | 4.0 | Witten | 56 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 2.0 | |
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are a disaster and seem to start a new QB every weekend. This week, it looks like Josh Freeman will return as the starter so let’s focus on that. In his Week 7 start, here were his targets:
Jennings 10, Simpson 9, Rudolph 9
At the very least, his focus on those 3 guys narrows down the list of receivers to target against a week Cowboys secondary. On the ground, Adrian Peterson has struggled and is under 65 yards rushing each of the last 3 weeks.
Defensively, the Vikings are one of the worst units in football. They rank 30th in points per game allowed and have given up at least 23 points in every game this season. PFF has their rush defense rank as the 4th worst in football and their pass defense rating is the 6th worse. The task gets no easier against Dallas on the road this weekend.
Fantasy Relevant
- QB – Josh Freeman is a decent option on 2 QB sites for large field tournaments. His price is relatively cheap across the board and given the 10 point spread he should be playing much of this game from behind. The Cowboys have now allowed 400 yards passing to 4 different quarterbacks this season, which explains why they’re dead last in FPPG-allowed to QBs.
- RB – Adrian Peterson has a good matchup and is certainly in play, but his inconsistency of late coupled with a price tag that doesn’t seem to ever drop too heavily makes him an avoid this weekend for me in cash games.
- WR – Jennings is probable to play and Jerome Simpson should see a good number of targets as well. Dallas ranks 25th against WR1’s and 32nd against WR2’s, but I would still only use either of these options as a handcuff to Freeman in a tournament.
- TE – Rudolph has had one really explosive game all season, but could find himself getting some looks in this one if the Vikings are forced to pass a lot. The Cowboys struggle against TE’s as well.
Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys are in shambles as the finger-pointing game broke out following last week’s tough loss to the Lions. It’s clear that their defense is not going to carry them, but they are an opportunistic bunch. They’re averaging 11.4 fantasy points per game this season despite ranking 32nd against the pass and 17th in points allowed.
The offense is the easier part for Dallas, as Romo and company continue move the ball efficiently. The biggest worry here is the loss of RG Brian Waters for the season. The potential pro-bowler was 11th on PFF’s pass-blocking ratings and leaves a huge void in that O-Line. His replacement, Mackenzy Bernadeau, allowed 7 sacks himself in 2012.
Fantasy Relevant
- QB – Romo has a passing TD in every game this season but his yards have varied week to week.
Week 5: 506 PaYd, Week 6: 170 PaYd, Week 7: 317 PaYd, Week 8: 206 PaYd
If that trend continues, we should see Romo eclipse 300 yards this weekend. Regardless, the matchup is great against the 27th ranked Minnesota defense.
- RB – I fully expect DeMarco Murray take the field again, but it may be in a limited capacity which is disappointing considering the juicy matchup against the worst defense vs. RBs in the NFL. If he doesn’t go, fire away on Joseph Randle but if he plays, I can’t imagine we see anything other than a timeshare.
- WR – Dez now has 8 receiving touchdowns on the season and showed last week why he’s become Romo’s favorite red zone target. His price tag is steep but no one on the Vikings can cover him. The better value may be Terrance Williams though, as the Vikings rank 28th against WR2s and Williams has 60+ receiving yards in 4 of his last 5 games.
- TE – Jason Witten has a prime matchup but simply hasn’t seen the same targets he’s accustomed to over the past few weeks. He has 5, 6 and 2 targets over that span and until those numbers start increasing again, it’s tough to recommend him as anything other than a GPP play.
Tampa Bay at Seattle
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Seattle Seahawks | |||||||||
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| Sun – 4:05PM ET | CenturyLink Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| 16.5 | 40.5 | 12 | -16.5 | 40.5 | 28.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 14.3 | 31 | 26 | 21 | Offense | 25.6 | 9 | 28 | 4 | |
| Defense | 23.3 | 18 | 19 | 7 | Defense | 15.6 | 3 | 3 | 15 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Seattle | 1 | 5 | 5 | 4 | Tampa Bay | 26 | 15 | 13 | 18 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Jackson | 90 | 12.9 | 16.3 | 13.0 | Tate | 53 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 7.0 | |
| Underwood | 8 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | Harvin | |||||
| Owusu | 7 | 3.5 | 3.5 | Rice | 35 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 3.0 | ||
| Wright | Miller | 24 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | |||||
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
It’s never good when Vegas has you projected to score 12 total points. They’re 16.5 point road underdogs at Seattle and will likely start a rookie QB/RB duo again this weekend. With news that WR Mike Williams will miss the remainder of the season, it’s pretty much all bad news for the Buccs on offense.
Defensively, it doesn’t get much better. DaShon Goldson missed last week’s game and is questionable again for Week 9. If he doesn’t go, the middle of the Buccs secondary should be wide open for Seattle. They rank middle of the pack in most defensive categories but if this game turns into the blowout it’s expected to be, the fantasy output from anyone on either team could be diminished.
Fantasy Relevant
- QB – Mike Glennon isn’t fantasy relevant against this Seahawks secondary (who are unbelievable at home as well).
- RB – I would consider Mike James this weekend despite the tough matchup. The Seahawks have been undoubtedly strong defensively but they allowed Zac Stacy to over 100 yards in Week 8 and James should see a good number of touches for a heavily reduced price tag.
- WR – VJax has been outstanding, but I’d be shocked if the Seahawks didn’t make sure he was double teamed all day long. Tiquan Underwood should step into WR2 duties, but his upside is also limited given the tough matchup.
- TE – Tim Wright had a solid Week 8 and the Seahawks have allowed 50+ receiving yards to 4 different Tight Ends this season, but I wouldn’t expect anything special on Sunday here.
Seattle Seahawks
There’s some tension between RB Marshawn Lynch and the coaching staff after Lynch touched the ball just 8 times against a dreaded Rams defense. Instead Seattle, who averages just 48% pass plays so far this season, threw on a whopping 62% of plays. That is extremely unlikely to happen again this weekend given the 16.5 point spread. The other news would be the return of Percy Harvin, who is very up in the air for Sunday’s game. With Sidney Rice now out for the year, the Seahawks need another weapon in their passing game and Harvin would fill that void as soon as he’s recovered.
On defense there’s not much to talk about here. They’re allowing 11 points per game at home this season and there’s no denying just how good they can be against even some of the league’s best offenses. The Buccs are far from that and shouldn’t be able to pick up much ground against the team that ranks second overall on PFF defensive ratings.
Fantasy Relevant
- QB – Russell Wilson has 4 multi-TD games this year but the overall pass yards haven’t been there since he threw for over 300 in Week 1. The matchup is solid here but given the spread, I wouldn’t consider Wilson a tremendous play.
- RB – Lynch had just 8 carries in Week 8 but you’d be foolish to completely forget about him. He has 4 rushing scores on 75 yards per came in the Seahawks 3 home games this season.
- WR – Will Percy Harvin suit up or not? If so, his discounted price makes him a great play on nearly every site. If he doesn’t, look for an extremely heavy dose of Golden Tate with the injury to Rice.
- TE – Miller represents one of Wilson’s favorite red zone targets, but doesn’t hold a ton of value outside of a touchdown and 4-5 receptions max. He also only saw 3 targets in Week 8.