NHL DFS Slate Summary: Wednesday, December 27th

by Taylor Ezell (ezellmt) Last Updated 2024-01-05 18:22:22

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NHL DFS Slate Summary. In this article, we’ll concentrate on the key elements of DFS success while delivering analysis on the upcoming slate of NHL games for DraftKings and FanDuel. We’ll discuss today’s NHL DFS player projections, player correlations and NHL stacking, NHL starting lineups, differentiation tactics using NHL projected ownership, and recommendations on ways to create lineup diversity if entering multiple lineups using LineupHQ.

NHL DFS Picks: Slate Summary for Wednesday, December 27th

Today’s Games

Slate Overview

Welcome back and a belated Merry Christmas to all. Hopefully your stockings were full of pre-paid cards to reload your DK or FD account, not that any of us would ever have to deposit… Props to DK for some great offerings, including a $100k prize pool, $25k to first contest for the $444. There’s also a $432 Live Final Q, although there’s a good chance it’ll be full by the time you’re reading this. Compared to the lump of coal offered the Saturday before the break, this is like opening a Super Nintendo (I had to think of my favorite present of all time).

There are a ludicrous (Luda!) number of games (14) tonight, which always makes things challenging. Further the difficulty is the brief layoff for teams, so there could be all kinds of changes with players coming back from injury, others getting called up, etc. So it’s even more important than usual to pay attention to the news, and especially the Discord channel. There are a bunch of really good spots, but none that are so far above the others that I think ownership will get crazy on, especially given the number of teams in action. From Vegas’ perspective, the Devils, Kings, and Maple Leafs are above the rest with implied team totals of 4.0 or greater. But there are another handful of teams in great spots too, which should lead to fairly distributed ownership.

Top Skaters

Auston Matthews
DraftKings $10,000

I’ve mentioned this a few times already this season, but each passing game it becomes even clearer that Auston Matthews was heavily impacted by lingering injuries last season, which led to his lowest goal per game total since 2018-2019 season. Due to a flurry of goals lately, he’s almost up to a goal per game pace and is now even money to win the Rocket Richard award for the most regular season goals. He has 12 goals in his last 7 games and is putting pucks on net at an epic clip. The only negative is that he has surprisingly struggling in the two previous meetings with the Senators, managing just a single assist. That’s a really small sample size and I’m not putting too much stock into it given his form and pedigree.

Kirill Kaprizov
DraftKings $8,000

Kirill Kaprizov hasn’t been a staple in this article nearly as often as past years thanks in large part to a slow start by his standards. Even with a recent uptick in production, he’s still averaging less than a point per game on the season. The form lately has been rapidly improving, however, and he has four goals in his last three games. The shot volume still isn’t quite what we’d like, but the efficiency has made up for it. Efficiency shouldn’t be a challenge tonight against a Red Wings team rolling out their third or fourth string goalie. They have allowed 18 goals in their last four games, or 4.5 goals per game. Kaprizov isn’t cheap at $8k, but the savings over someone like a $10k Matthews are significant and allow you to upgrade the rest of your lineup.

Other Options: Nathan MacKinnon, Jack Hughes, David Pastrnak, Mikko Rantanen, William Nylander, Valeri Nichushkin, Nikita Kucherov (GPPs), Nikolaj Ehlers and Gabriel Villardi

Top Values

Brock Faber
DraftKings $4,300

I’ll keep this one brief because Faber has been a staple in this article over the last few weeks. It’s pretty simple for him. His usage is better than anyone in the league right now with Brodin and Spurgeon out. He hasn’t been terribly efficient with the the time, but when you play 30+ minutes, you’re bound to stumble into some peripherals. As noted above for Kaprizov, the matchup is excellent against a Red Wings team leaking goals. The price has come up slightly, but should still be priced above $5k given his role/usage.

Trevor Zegras
DraftKings $3,900

Despite 28 teams to choose from, there’s a lack of obvious values tonight, at least as of the time of this writing. It’s possible some value will open up closer to lock, but for now, there aren’t many of the usual values where a cheap player has been elevated to a prominent role. Zegras returned from an extended absence just before the quick break and appeared to have no limitations. He played 18+ minutes and scored an incredible “Michigan goal” in his return. He also had five shots on goal, which is a positive development because the shots were severely lacking prior to the injury. The matchup with Vegas isn’t ideal, but this also isn’t the same shutdown team we’ve seen in prior years. And at this price tag, you’re really looking for a point (hopefully a goal) and several shots on net. I think that’s well within the range of outcomes given his role on the top line and power play, especially without Leo Carlsson in the lineup.

Other Options: Hampus Lindholm, Arthur Kaliyev, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Brock Faber, Marco Rossi, Timothy Liljegren

Top Goalie Projections

Juuse Saros
DraftKings $8,000

Similar to skaters, I don’t think there’s a singular standout option tonight. Juuse Saros seems like as good of an option as any for a few reasons. First, his form has rapidly improved after a slow start to the year. His numbers in November were: 4-5-0 record, 3.71 GAA, and .880 SV%. Not good. In December, he’s sported a 7-2-0 record, 2.17 GAA, and a .933 SV%. The real Juuse Saros is probably somewhere between those two extremes, but that still puts him as a Top 8 goalie in the league. Tonight he faces the Hurricanes, who we have targeted frequently this season. It’s not that the Hurricanes aren’t good because they are; it’s that they present the opportunity for plenty of low-danger shots and easy saves for the opposing goalie. They lead the league in this category by a wide margin. Saros is far from guaranteed to get a win as a +115 underdog, but if he does manage to pick up the W, there’s a good chance he ends up as the highest-scoring goalie on the slate.

Other Options: Jeremy Swayman, Ilya Sorokin, Filip Gustavsson (Value)

Top Stack Projections

Projected Ownership is posted daily after morning skate.

Top Stacks

Toronto 1/PP1

For several weeks, the Maple Leafs paired Auston Matthews and William Nylander together on the top line, and to good results. After some struggles, they have reverted back to their usual pairings of Matthews-Marner on the top line and Tavares-Nylander on the second line. I think this is the best option long-term given the combination of skills and how the players complement each other. The nice thing for stacking purposes is that Marner is significantly cheaper than Nylander if you’re just looking to go with a two-man mini-stack. Of course, the full power play onslaught is always in play with any combination of Nylander, Matthews, Tavares, and Marner. Morgan Rielly is an interesting one because his price is pretty high and the upside hasn’t been there lately, but it feels like a three assist night is in play in the near future. Against a Senators team fully capable of allowing goals in bunches, I’ll be looking to get as many Maple Leafs as possible into my lineup.

Winnipeg 1/PP1

Here’s what I said in my last article Saturday: “The Blackhawks are bad. Like really bad.” That’s the kind of hard-hitting analysis you pay the big bucks for (you’re welcome). The Blues did explode for 7 goals after a relatively slow start and the chalk hit in a big way. It’s a similar spot tonight, except that the Jets are much better than the Blues. Gabriel Villardi and Nikolaj Ehlers are arguably the hottest duo in the NHL right now and has the Jets thinking ‘ Kyle Connor who? ‘ Ok, that’s not really the case, but the chemistry has been undeniable with Mark Scheffiele centering the two at both even-strength and the power play. Josh Morrissey is similar to Morgan Rielly on a lot of ways, except that he’s actually producing at a nice enough rate to be considered as a core piece of this power play stack. They will be chalky, but as the Blues proved the other night, chalk is chalk for a reason sometimes.

Other Options: COL1/PP1, BOS1/PP1, MIN1/PP1, NJ1/PP1, TB1/PP1 (GPPs), NYR2/PP1 (GPPs)

Image Credit: Getty Images