NL Wild Card Preview: Cardinals vs. Dodgers Odds, Picks & Prediction
Cardinals vs. Dodgers Odds
| Cardinals Odds | +196 |
| Dodgers Odds | -216 |
| Over/Under | 7.5 |
| Date | Wednesday, Oct. 6 |
| Time | 8:10 p.m. |
| TV | TBS |
On Wednesday night, the St. Louis Cardinals and the Los Angeles Dodgers will battle in the National League Wild Card game to determine which team has the opportunity to play the San Francisco Giants in the division series. Entering play, St. Louis has won 19 of their last 22 games. Los Angeles has won 18 of their last 21 contests. In a win-or-go-home atmosphere, the Cardinals will send ageless wonder Adam Wainwright to the hill. He will be opposed by Max Scherzer. Oddsmakers are confidently anticipating the Dodgers advancing to the next round of the postseason, pricing Los Angeles as -225 home favorites.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
St. Louis Cardinals
Across 32 starts in 2021, Wainwright delivered a 3.05 ERA, 3.84 xERA, and a 3.66 FIP. Despite rarely touching 90 miles-per-hour with his fastball, Wainwright ranked in the 63rd percentile or better in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, xwOBA, xERA, barrel-rate, and walk percentage this year. However, Wainwright was significantly better this season pitching in the comfort of Busch Stadium than he was on the road. At home, he posted a 3.33 FIP and a 1.01 WHIP. On the road, he owned a 4.22 FIP and a 1.14 WHIP. Still, in his last 11 trips to the mound, Wainwright was dominant with a 2.20 ERA and a 3.17 FIP. He should be able to keep St. Louis competitive in this contest.
Since the beginning of September, the Cardinals offense ranks fifth in OPS and second in ISO. Yet, this lineup also ranked 29th in walk-rate and 20th in strikeout percentage in that span—two problematic statistics when matched-up against Scherzer, who strikes out a lot of batters while limiting free passes. Paul Goldschmidt, Tyler O’Neill, Nolan Arenado, and Harrison Bader present a dangerous foursome in this lineup, but it is a tall order to expect success from anyone against a pitcher of Scherzer’s caliber.
Over the last 30 days, the Cardinals have seen tremendous growth out of their relief corps—ranking eighth in bullpen FIP after struggling for the majority of the campaign in the late innings. Having clinched the final Wild Card spot before the final day of the regular season, St. Louis chose to rest all of their best late inning arms this past weekend. None of Giovanny Gallegos, Genesis Cabrera, Alex Reyes, Luis Garcia, and Kodi Whitley have pitched since Saturday.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Scherzer has been nearly unhittable since being acquired by the Dodgers at the trade deadline. Since the beginning of A
ugust, he owns a 1.98 ERA and a 1.95 FIP. In that span, he is striking-out 33.6 percent of opposing hitters against a miniscule 3.0 percent walk-rate. On top of a sensational 0.82 WHIP, Scherzer has allowed an incomprehensibly-low 3.0 percent barrel-rate on the last 166 balls put in play against him. On the year, he ranks in the 71st percentile or better in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, xwOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, strikeout and walk percentage, and whiff-rate. Bettors should expect dominance from Scherzer on Wednesday night.
Considering the fact that the Los Angeles lineup features names such as Max Muncy, Will Smith, Justin Turner, Mookie Betts, Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger, and A.J. Pollock, it was incredibly surprising to see this offense be so inconsistent in 2021. Yet, this group appeared to finally begin figuring things out down the stretch—ranking seventh in OPS and third in ISO since September 1. During that stretch, they also ranked eighth in walk-rate and had the fifth-lowest strikeout-rate of any offense in the league. On Wednesday, this offense will be missing Muncy, and Bellinger continues to be missing in action, but this is still a lineup capable of doing a lot of damage on any given night.
Over the last 30 days, Los Angeles’ relief corps ranked seventh in bullpen FIP. Kenley Jansen owns a 0.65 ERA in his last 27 appearances. Blake Treinen, Corey Knebel, Alex Vesia, and Phil Brickford are all solid late inning complements that are capable of keeping runs off of the board. Of course, Manager Dave Roberts also has the ability to be ultra aggressive and go to arms such as Walker Buehler and Julio Urias in this contest if needed.
Cardinals vs. Dodgers Picks
Of the last seven National League Wild Card games, six have totaled eight runs or less, and four of the last five contests have totaled seven runs or less. The Cardinals and the Dodgers are two of the hottest offenses in baseball entering play on Wednesday, but when great pitching runs into great hitting, the smart wager is almost always on the pitching to prevail. The under is worth a small play in this one.
PICK: Under 7.5 (-110)
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