NFL DFS Showdown Lineup Optimizer Values: Panthers-Bears DraftKings Picks
NFL Showdown season continues with the Panthers at Bears on Thursday Night Football. Our expert analysts are breaking down DraftKings Showdown picks with our in-house NFL DFS lineup optimizer. Sign up for RotoGrinders Premium for full access to our NFL lineup optimizer and fantasy football projections all season long.
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It’s the battle for a better draft pick tonight, as the 1-7 Panthers go on the road to take on the 2-7 Bears. The biggest story is DJ Moore facing his former team for the first time, and he could be in for a huge game, as the Panthers will be without starting CB C.J. Henderson and starting LB Brian Burns. Moore will still have Tyson Bagent throwing to him, as Justin Fields remains out, but you know Moore’s going to be extra motivated to find the end zone this week. He’s my favorite Captain play.
DJ Chark is doubtful for the Panthers and Laviska Shenault remains out, so Terrace Marshall will get a few more looks as the WR3. Khalil Herbert is expected to remain out for the Bears, and Equanimeous St. Brown is questionable, while Jordan Matthews has been elevated from the practice squad for Carolina and will help at TE with Stephen Sullivan out.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Panthers at Bears Week 10
Currently, this game is sitting at a 38.5 total, with the Bears favored by 3 points. This is tied for the 2nd-lowest game total of the week, but hopefully we get an exciting game that stays close to the end. We still have plenty of talent on both teams that could turn this game into a higher-scoring affair than projected, assuming both teams actually try to win and not tank for a higher draft pick.
Quarterback
Bryce Young ($9,800) has yet to have a clean fantasy performance, as he’s only thrown for multiple TDs in one game this season, and he also had 2 INTs in that game. A matchup with the 28th-ranked Bears pass defense could be a recipe for a breakout Young game, and for under $10,000, I think he makes for a solid cash game play who has a solid floor due to his rushing ability.
Tyson Bagent ($9,200) faces a tougher matchup against a Panthers pass defense allowing under 180 pass yards per game. But with Carolina having two key defensive starters out, Bagent should have a solid game. The Bears should move the ball on the ground pretty easily and have plenty of red-zone opportunities, and the Panthers are still allowing 26 points per game. Like Young, Bagent also has a high floor, as shown by his 70 yards rushing last game. So he’s a cash-game priority for me who has a great shot at 2+ total TDs, and he’ll have some extra motivation to do well and create some QB controversy knowing Fields is close to a return.
Running Back
Chuba Hubbard ($8,000) should see more touches than Miles Sanders ($5,200), but against a Bears defense allowing just 79.7 rushing yards per game, there’s just too much downside using either of them outside of GPPs. There’s also a chance we see a closer split in their workload after Sanders produced 61 yards on 9 touches last week, while Hubbard only had 67 yards on 20 touches.
With Khalil Herbert doubtful to play, D’Onta Foreman ($8,600), Roschon Johnson ($3,600), and Darrynton Evans ($2,700) will carry the load for Chicago. Foreman should remain the RB1 after seeing 20 carries last week, but at a similar price point to both QBs and likely limited work in the passing game, I’d rather spend my salary on the QB/WR stacks and not an RB that will be very TD-dependent for value. If you’re doing MME (mass multi-entry) though, by all means, cover Foreman in plenty of lineups and even in a couple Captain spots.
Wide Receiver
DJ Moore ($10,600) is a cash game must-play, in my opinion, and I’d be looking to use him in the Captain spot. On paper, it’s a tough matchup for the Bears passing game, but with two Panthers starters out on defense, Moore should be facing softer matchups, and I think Bagent will be looking to force the ball to him so he can score against his former team (yes I’m team narratives). There aren’t a ton of elite-upside options tonight, but Moore falls into that category, and I won’t be looking to fade him in any type of contest. Darnell Mooney ($7,400) is coming off a solid game (5 catches on 6 targets for 82 yards), but he’s just a bit too pricey to trust for cash games.
Adam Thielen ($11,800) is the most expensive player, but given the other options we have, I think he is definitely a priority for cash games, and you should have plenty of him in the Captain spot if you’re doing MME in GPPs. He draws a fantastic matchup against a pass-funnel Bears defense, and with 11+ targets in three of his last four games, he’s by far the highest-upside Panthers skill player in this game. Jonathan Mingo ($2,800) has seen 5+ targets in all but two games this season, and with Chark out, he should easily see 6+ targets tonight, making him a great cash-game value play. Terrace Marshall ($400) will move up to WR3 with Chark out, and at his extremely low salary, I think he’s definitely worth using in some GPP lineups. And if you need someone at his price range to fit in your ideal cash-game lineup, I think he’s worth the risk.
Tight End
Cole Kmet ($6,600) has been fantastic the last two games, with 18 targets and 2 TDs. If you go with Moore at Captain along with Thielen and both QBs in flex spots, then Kmet will be off the table. But if you don’t go with Young, then I’d be looking to include Kmet in a Bears stack with Bagent and Moore in cash games. He’s my favorite skill player under $7k, and if you’re playing GPPs, I’d definitely have some Kmet in the Captain spot.
Hayden Hurst ($4,800) and Tommy Tremble ($2,400) are way too volatile and TD-dependent to trust in cash games, but I don’t mind sprinkling in some Tremble in GPPs at his discounted price compared to Hurst.
Defense / Special Teams
Both defenses are allowing over 24 points per game, and at $4k+ in salary each, I likely won’t use either in cash games. Given the low total and shaky QB play on both teams though, I think they’re worth using in some GPP lineups.
I’m really trying to jam in Moore, Thielen, and both QBs, so Cairo Santos ($5,000) and Eddy Pineiro ($4,400) are going to be hard to fit in cash games unless you sacrifice one of the four most expensive options. I think both are fine guys to sprinkle throughout GPP lineups.
Thursday Night Football NFL DFS Strategy
Based on pricing, I’m liking either a 4-2 Panthers build or a 3-3 build. Mingo and Marshall are key value plays that will make fitting in the top four expensive plays much easier, while Kmet is who I’d be targeting if you only go with three of the four most expensive options.
DraftKings DFS Showdown Rankings
1. DJ Moore – A cash game must-play and my favorite player to use in the Captain spot. Highest-upside skill player in this game, with extra motivation against his former team.
2. Adam Thielen – Similar to Moore in that he’s the highest-upside play for the Panthers, and he gets one of the best matchups in football for a WR.
3. Tyson Bagent – Solid rushing upside and plenty of weapons to go for 2+ total TDs at a great price.
4. Bryce Young – Excellent matchup to have another multi-TD game, and it’s very doable to fit him and the three guys above if you use Marshall ($400) in a flex spot.
5. Jonathan Mingo – He fits perfectly in lineups with the four guys above + Marshall and Moore at Captain. Even if you go another route in cash games, Mingo is still a great play at just $2,800 with Chark out.
NFL DFS Lineup Optimizer for Thursday Night Football
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