Sportsbooks Update Super Bowl and AFC East Odds After Patriots Sign Cam Newton
And just like that, Cam Newton is a New England Patriot.
As reported by Adam Schefter on Sunday night, the New England Patriots and head coach and general manager Bill Belichick signed the 2015 NFL MVP to a one-year “incentive-laden deal.” The Patriots bring Newton in after Tom Brady left New England to join the Tampa Bay Buccaneers earlier this offseason.
Online sports betting sites posted odds for where Newton would end up once the Panthers parted ways with the quarterback earlier in the offseason.
Read More: Are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Overvalued?
Oddsmakers opened New England +350 to be Newton’s destination by Week 1 of the 2020 NFL season. At one point, bettors were getting +750 that the Patriots would land the quarterback.
As I wrote when the particular betting market opened, “You would be a fool to think Belichik will be patient and rebuild. The Patriots still have a great defense, and Belichick, with or without Brady, is always in win-now mode. Who is a quarterback that can help Belichick win now? With Philip Rivers in Indianapolis, Cam Newton is the most notable name.”
The acquisition took a little longer than expected, but it’s not of any surprise.
Before signing the free agent, New England’s depth chart included Jarrett Stidham and Brian Hoyer as its top two quarterbacks.
If Newton is healthy he’ll compete with Stidham for the starting job, giving the Patriots a viable alternative if the second-year quarterback isn’t ready.
Stidham threw only four passes in his rookie season. His lone touchdown was to the opposing defense during a blowout against the New York Jets. Belichick pulled Stidham immediately, letting Brady finish the game despite their comfortable lead.
Whoever starts in Week 1 will be a roughly 6.5-point favorite against the Miami Dolphins, as FanDuel’s NFL Week 1 lines currently stand. The division rivals last met in Week 17, as the Dolphins shocked the Patriots in a 27-24 upset.
The Patriots will face a more difficult test in Week 2, traveling across the country as 3.5-point underdogs to face the Seattle Seahawks.
Oddsmakers Adjust Patriots Super Bowl Odds
PointsBet Sportsbook moved the Patriots’ Super Bowl odds from +2500 to +2000 in light of the news. Their odds are as short as +1700 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
The Patriots have also jumped ahead of the Buffalo Bills as the favorites to win the AFC East. New England enters the season in pursuit of their 12th consecutive division title, but can Belichick keep the streak alive without Brady?
If you aren’t a believer in the Patriots, or simply think the market is overreacting to the recent news, you can bet the Bills +160 at FanDuel Sportsbook. The New York Jets and Miami Dolphins are each +700 to win the division.
Additionally, the New England Patriots win total is currently 9.5. Remarkably, the Patriots haven’t won fewer than 10 games in a season since 2009, and they’ve won fewer than 12 games only once over the last decade.
A win column with double digits won’t come for the Patriots in 2020. Their schedule includes both participants from last season’s Super Bowl. They have seven more games against teams that made the playoffs, including the Seahawks, Bills, Texans, and Ravens
Football fans have long questioned who was more responsible for the Patriots dynasty: Belichick or Brady? There will be more debate than ever as fans, analysts, and pundits watch both the Patriots and Buccaneers closely in 2020.
Cam Newton 2020 Comeback Player of the Year?
While Newton is the projected starter in New England, some sports bettors are wondering if Newton can win 2020 Comeback Player of the Year.
U.S. Sportsbooks aren’t doubting him; at +450, Newton ahead of Rob Gronkowski, JJ Watt, Matthew Stafford and AJ Green. The only NFL player more heavily favored than Newton is Ben Roethlisburger +350, per BetMGM.
Quarterbacks have earned the honors in each of the last two seasons, but unlike the NFL MVP, where quarterbacks dominate, other positions are in play to win Comeback Player of the Year. Receivers won in 2016 and 2017, and a tight end and safety each won the award in 2014 and 2015.
Whether Newton truly has nearly a 20% chance to win Comeback Player of the Year depends on your confidence that he will in fact be the Patriots starting quarterback. It’s no secret Newton struggled in 2019 due to a nagging shoulder injury. Based on that, I’m hesitant to bet on Newton in this spot.
Even if Newton does start, as these odds presume, the field’s strength, which includes three future Hall of Famers in Roethlisberger, Watt and Gronkowski, should scare you away. If the Texans return to the playoffs after losing DeAndre Hopkins, you can bet that Watt (+700) will play a pivotal role. Meanwhile, Gronkowski’s body is fresh after a year away from the NFL. The tight end obviously has plenty of chemistry with Tom Brady. Moreover, Bruce Arians has suggested that the Bucs will be using a lot of 12 personnel (two tight-end sets), which should give Gronkowski the opportunity to put up numbers.
If you’re looking for a dark horse, A.J. Green +1400 is interesting. The Bengals not only used the No. 1 draft pick on Joe Burrow but they also improved their offensive line. With Joe Mixon in the backfield, and head coach Zac Taylor installing a west coast offense, there’s potential for the Bengals to put up yards and numbers.
Still, the safest 2020 Comeback Player of the Year bets are on Roethlisberger and Watt.
Sign up at BetMGM to bet on Roethlisberger +350 and Watt +700 to win Comeback Player of the Year!
All in all, New England was wise seeking the former NFL MVP. If he’s healthy, it only raises the Patriots ceiling, but the betting markets seem to have overreacted to the news. If anything, there’s more value than ever on betting the Bills to win the AFC East. That’s where my money is going.