People Change
People change. In fantasy, just as in real life, it is a fact of life. In some cases, it is normal and expected. For instance, as you age, you get smarter and fatter. That is until you get really old, when you get confused and strangely honest. When you get married, you typically get less social, with a tendency toward collective pronouns. When you get your first job out of college, you find the taste of Ramen noodles much less appealing. It’s very normal that people change.
Other times, it comes as a surprise, like when our most decorated decathlete becomes a female, when one of our most feared heavyweight boxers becomes a rapist, then a piece of art, and then a loveable actor, or when an Austrian bodybuilder becomes a huge movie star and then the governor of most powerful state in our country. The only thing that won’t change is the fact that people change.
In daily fantasy, you go in thinking people are a certain way. For instance, for most big backs, you expect them to score a lot from in close or for wide receivers who are “gritty, hard-working, grinders” (read: a short, white guys), you expect lots of receptions. Many times, these things are correct. But, all because they are true today, it doesn’t mean they will be true tomorrow. Even in fantasy, people change.
Let’s spend a little time examining our fantasy friends and the things we know about them, to see if things have changed. (SPOILER: They have.)
#1: Peyton Manning just makes everyone happy.
Loveable Peyton. We’ve known him for so long. All that time, anyone who encountered him came away happy (producing). Just think of a couple years back (2013). He was thick as thieves with his buddies, Demaryius and Eric (1400-and-14 & 1300-and-11). Wes hung around some of the time, and when he did, he was always laughing, too (800-and-10). Though, with Wes, it seemed like he might be on something that made him so … happy. Then there was Julius, who used to hang around that religious guy, Tim. He was literally never happy (7 total receiving yards). As soon as he started to hang with Peyton, things started looking up (800-and-12).
Even the guys at his work felt the effect. Knowshon was his (running) back-up at their job, working when Peyton wasn’t. He was a pretty perky guy in 2013 as well (1600 total yards, 13 TDs), just for working at the same store (the Broncos). Frankly, even when Peyton’s back-up’s replacement Montee was around, everyone was happy (including tspiedo in the 2013 FFFC). Happy times.
Have you noticed any changes in Peyton though, lately? It started last year, actually, but that was easy to explain, as he had some loss in his life (quad functionality). Now though, he just seems down (13.2 PPG), and really, you can’t just blame it on his age (lower PPG than Matt Hasselbeck). The real shame is that he seems to be bringing everyone else down. Demaryius (12.9 PPG this year, 17.7 PPG last year) and the new guy, Manny (14.2 PPG this year, 15.2 PPG last year), are visibly less happy. Even at work, his (running) back-up, CJ, is basically the Grinch now compared to last year (5.2 PPG this year, 13.0 PPG last year).
People change and happiness is fleeting. The real problem is that people continue to expect Peyton and his friends to be cheery all the time (Manning – fourth highest QB salary in the FanDuel Sunday-Monday slate // Thomas – fourth // Sanders – tenth). The Gin Blossoms summed it up best when they sang: “If you don’t expect too much from me, you might not be let down.”
Peyton Manning is kind of a fantasy grump now, and he’s bringing everyone else (‘s scores) down as well.
#2: Giovani Bernard is just your work friend.
Jeremy Hill comes up right way (drafted early), when you’re asked who your friends are, so it stands to reason that he’s your best friend. But, take a second to examine the things your work friend, Gio Bernard, does for you. Sure, you go out to lunch with him (the occasional series). When you go on work trips, he’s your guy (passing situations, third downs). Have you noticed that when you really need something done for you, you’re as likely to call Gio as Jeremy (16 red zone touches for Hill, 14 for Bernard)? Most importantly, you just hang out with Giovani more. When you do, you just have more fun. (WEEK 5 – Total Snaps: Bernard – 66; Hill – 19 // Rushes: Bernard – 15 for 80, 5.3 YPC; Hill – 8 for 13, 1.6 YPC // Total Touches, Yards: Bernard – 20 for 101; Hill – 9 for 25). Friendships change, as the people do.
Giovani Bernard is your Cincinnati running back best friend.
#3: Julian Edelman has lots of friends that are girls, but he doesn’t get chicks.
We all know what Julian Edelman is. Last year, in fourteen games, he encountered 135 women (targets) with whom 92 he became friends (receptions). He’s a good guy, so that’s not a surprise. None of it was very serious, just light and casual (10.6 Yards Per Reception). In fact, many fat guys were getting further with the ladies (16 TEs with a higher YPR). Ultimately, he just didn’t do that well with women (4 TDs).
This year though, have you noticed any changes in Julian? He’s going to the bar a lot more (two red zone targets per game, tied for third among WRs). In fact, he’s only going a little less than his friend Rob (2.33), and we all know he likes to party (just in real life). Also, his relationships with women seem to be getting deeper (11.7 Yards Per Reception). Let’s just call a spade a spade, he’s getting chicks (three TDs, in four games). I don’t know what’s changed with him. Maybe it’s Tinder. I hear he’s big on that.
Julian Edelman is scoring a lot more … TDs.
#4: Jimmy Graham is so good at life.
Tight end life is hard, but for so long, Jimmy Graham has seemed like none of it bothered him. For regular tight ends, managing the all the aspects of tight end life is difficult (blocking, route running, personnel packages), and he IS a tight end (arbitration ruling, July 2014). It’s like he never had to block (he didn’t), was always out running routes (95% of pass plays), and was in on every play (basically, yes). He was, essentially, the Jessie Spano of tight ends.
Now, he’s got some new friends (the Seahawks), and tight ends are starting to think there was something helping him not have any tight end problems (the Saints offense). When asked to block, it appears he’s not that good at it (Ole!). Because of that, sometimes, he doesn’t get to hang with the guys (81% of the Seahawks offensive snaps). Frankly, he just doesn’t seem to be doing well (8.6 PPG this year, 11.7 PPG last year). As his friends, we need to look out for him in coming weeks, if he goes to enter the game and Coach Carroll tells him he can’t on that play. It wouldn’t be surprising for him to sing “I’m so excited (to play), I’m so excited (to play), I’m so, so, scared,” and break down in tears. Even tight ends change.
Jimmy Graham has tight end problems just like every other tight end.