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We start the work week with another 2-game NBA playoff slate. The Celtics will look to extend their series lead over the Cavaliers to 3-1 in tonight’s Game 4 in Cleveland. The Cavs are also facing some injury question marks, which puts them in an awfully tough spot. Out West, the Mavs will look to do the same at home against the top-seeded Thunder. Dallas is up 2-1 in the series, and they can put OKC on the brink of elimination with another victory this evening.

As always, PrizePicks has you covered when it comes to NBA pick’em DFS. Let’s build a winner for tonight’s slate.

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Now, let’s go through our NBA predictions to help make a PrizePicks entry for today.

NBA PrizePicks Predictions Today

Lu Dort More/Less Than 19 Fantasy Points

The Thunder haven’t played poorly in this series, but perhaps their lack of experience is catching up with them. Dort isn’t a major piece of the Oklahoma City offense, but he is the anchor of the defense. His role is vital, especially in this matchup against a team with a pair of dynamic offensive guards, Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving.

Dort’s minutes have actually increased in each of the first 3 games. He logged 26 minutes in Game 1, 33 minutes in Game 2, and peaked at 40 minutes in the last game. Dort is out there for his defense, so any offensive contributions the Thunder get from him are a bonus. So far in this series, the Arizona State product is averaging a mere 7.7 points, 4 rebounds, 2 assists, and a shade under 2 steals per game. He’s also picked up at least 5 fouls in every game, which is hardly a huge surprise for the guy tasked with trying to defend Luka and Kyrie.

The foul trouble is an obvious concern, but we have Dort projected to play another 36 minutes in Game 4. Even as a weak per-minute fantasy producer (0.62 FP/minute in the playoffs), Dort should play enough minutes to reach at least 19 fantasy points.

Josh Giddey More/Less Than 6.5 Points

Mark Daigneault decided to keep Giddey in the starting lineup for Game 3 despite Aaron Wiggins starting the 2nd half of Game 2 in his place. Giddey went on to play just 13 minutes, however, and he never returned to the game after subbing out with about 5 minutes to go in the 3rd quarter. Instead, OKC essentially closed the game with Wiggins or Isaiah Joe playing most of the minutes alongside the other 4 starters.

Giddey did muster a quick 9 points in those 13 minutes in Game 3, but I’d expect an even tighter leash tonight with Oklahoma City staring down the possibility of falling behind 3-1 in the series. The Mavs are essentially leaving Giddey open and daring him to shoot, which is not an area of strength for him. He attempted 4 3-pointers in those 13 minutes in the last game, and he converted just 1 of them. Given the Thunder’s other offensive weapons, the Mavs are more than happy to let Giddey try to beat them.

Daigneault knows this, however, and the Giddey minutes have been untenable for the Thunder to this point. We are again projecting Giddey to start, but he’s only projected to play 15 minutes. I’ll gladly bank on him to finish with less than 6.5 points in a game OKC cannot afford to lose.

Al Horford More/Less Than 25 Fantasy Points

The Celtics are still playing without Kristaps Porzingis, so they’ve had to rely on Horford to play a larger-than-expected role. Big Al has started every game since Porzingis went down, and we saw him play a whopping 39 minutes in Game 3. He wasn’t particularly effective offensively, however, finishing with a mere 2 points, 7 rebounds, and 2 assists on 1-for-7 shooting from the field. Horford whiffed on all 6 of his attempts from 3-point range too.

Still, it’s difficult to ignore the minutes. Horford averaged 28 minutes through the first 2 games of the series, but all five Boston starters played at least 37 minutes in Game 3. The Cavs don’t have a particularly big lineup beyond Evan Mobley, but they will revert to the 2-big lineup if Jarrett Allen (rib) returns to the lineup.

Regardless, Joe Mazzulla seems to trust Horford more than he does his bench options. Payton Pritchard played 22 minutes off the bench in Game 3, but no other reserve logged more than 10 minutes. Given his 34-minute projection in tonight’s game, I like Horford’s chance of topping 25 fantasy points.

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About the Author

tcsmith031
Taylor Smith (tcsmith031)

Based in Southern California, Taylor Smith (aka tcsmith031) has been working for RotoGrinders since 2018 in a number of different capacities. In addition to contributing written content for NBA, MLB, and NFL, Taylor is also a member of the projections/alerts team and makes regular appearances as an analyst on NBA Crunch Time. Follow Taylor on Twitter – @TayeBojangles