Raybon's Rollout: Week 4
Welcome back to Raybon’s Rollout, where I highlight the unconventional stacks and players I’ll be rolling out in DFS each week.
The column is largely based on my intensive research on stacking and coaching tendencies, and this year I’m adding a section that features the player with the top projected percentage odds of the week to hit cash game value, which follows the same methodology I use to calculate projected odds of hitting tournament value in my GPP Leverage Score metric.
Unconventional Stacks
QB Philip Rivers + WR Keenan Allen + TE Zach Ertz
Rivers has become an interception machine, throwing at least one pick in nine of his last 10 games. While that’s not ideal for (what’s left of) the Chargers fanbase, it will keep his DFS ownership minimal. Despite struggling with turnovers, Rivers still has 3 TD upside (Week 1 at Denver) and 300+ yard upside (Week 2 vs. Miami)—he just has to put it all together. That could happen this week against an Eagles defense that just allowed the ghost of Eli Manning to throw for 366 yards and three TDs. The Eagles have allowed the most catches in the league to WRs, which sets up nicely for volume hog Allen, who has 9+ targets in every game so far.
In 12 games with Allen active since 2015, Rivers averages 313.1 passing yards per game, compared to 269.0 with Allen on the shelf. When Allen goes over 100 yards receiving, Rivers jumps to 371 passing yards per game. You can leverage the correlation of opposing passing games with Ertz, who is on a torrid stretch over his last 12 games dating back to last season. Over that spa, Ertz averages 9.5 targets, 7.0 catches, 75.9 yards, and 0.41 TDs per game—essentially high-end WR1 numbers. Ertz has at least eight targets and five catches in every game this season.
QB Tyrod Taylor + RB LeSean McCoy
I usually don’t target large road underdogs at QB or RB, but a road date at Mercedes Benz Stadium could prove fruitful for Taylor and McCoy. Because they’ve faced the Jets, Panthers, and Broncos, the Bills defense hasn’t been truly tested yet, allowing Taylor to stay under 30 pass attempts in each of the team’s first three games. Atlanta, however, averages 29.0 points per game, and as a result, opposing passers average 45.0 pass attempts per game against the Falcons, most in the NFL. In games where Taylor has throws 30 or more passes, his passing yardage (256.8 yards per game) and TDs (1.45) spike drastically compared to games in which he attempts fewer than 30 passes (179.9, 1.19). Taylor’s floor and ceiling are enhanced by his rushing prowess, as he’s had 8 rushing attempts in every game this season.
Increased passing volume would only help McCoy as well, who is actually Taylor’s most highly target receiver through three games (20 targets). McCoy is averaging 6.0 receptions per game and has drawn at least six targets in every game despite Buffalo’s muted passing volume. The Falcons, meanwhile, have allowed the second-most receptions in the league to running backs (26). That’s largely by design, as Atlanta is content to allow short catches underneath, trusting athletic linebackers Deion Jones and DeVondre Campbell to rally and make tackles. Of course, tackling McCoy is easier said than done—his 20 evaded tackles are third in the league, per PlayerProfiler.com. QB-RB is an underrated stack because the two positions are positively correlated and stacking them potentially gives you access to nearly all of a team’s offensive production in a given game.
Best Odds to Hit Cash Game Value
Ezekiel Elliott: 62% on FanDuel and 59% on DraftKings
(Note: For a complete explanation of how these odds are calculated, see the Week 1 edition of this column.)
Even after adjusting for salary, home favorites are still the most consistent RB plays in DFS by a wide margin. Zeke’s Cowboys are 6-point home favorites against the Rams, who have allowed 133.0 rushing yards per game to RBs, the second-most in the league. The Rams have also allowed RBs to score a rushing TD in each of their three games, including multi-TD games in each of their past two games.
After closing out 2016 with five multi-TD games over his final 11 games, Zeke is a good bet to get his first multi-TD game of 2017 this week. What’s going overlooked with Zeke is his increased involvement in the passing game this season. After averaging 2.1 receptions per game during his rookie year, Zeke has nearly doubled that to 4.0 in Year 2.
Coaching Tendency to Exploit
New Bengals Offensive Coordinator Bill Lazor’s Love for Joe Mixon
Joe Mixon led Bengals running backs in snap rate for the first time in Week 3, playing 56% of the snaps to Jeremy Hill’s 23% and Giovani Bernard’s 21%. Mixon had only played 30% of the snaps during the first two weeks of the season. Most importantly, Mixon was an offensive focal point, piling up 21 touches in a game where the Bengals had only 61 offensive snaps.
The Browns have played stout run defense to date (3.4 yards per carry allowed to running backs), but Mixon is capable of having a game similar to the one Javorius Allen put up against the Browns in Week 2: 19 touches, 101 yards and a TD. Also promising is Mixon’s involvement in the passing game. He caught all 3 of his targets for 39 yards last week, and his snaps came at the expense of
Giovani Bernard.
Injury Situation to Exploit
Corey Davis’ Hamstring Injury
Davis immediately asserted himself with 10 targets in Week 1, but his absence solidifies Rishard Matthews as Marcus Mariota’s top wideout. Matthews is averaging 8.0 targets per game this season and drew 10 targets last week with Davis out. Over his last 11 games dating back to last season, Matthews has seen double-digit targets five times. During that span, he’s averaged 8.5 targets, 4.7 catches, 71.7 yards, and 0.64 TDs per game.
With cornerback Kevin Johnson out, the Texans have had to turn to Johnthan Banks, who promptly got roasted for 3 catches, 89 yards and a score last week. Because Matthews moves around and the Texans cornerbacks remain stationary, Matthews should get to run his fair share of routes on Banks or whomever else the Texans trot out. At $6,000 on FanDuel and $4,900 on DraftKings, Matthews’ price does not reflect his production.