Raybon's Rollout: Week 5
Welcome back to Raybon’s Rollout, where I highlight the unconventional stacks and players I’ll be rolling out in DFS each week.
The column is largely based on my intensive research on stacking and coaching tendencies, and this year I’m adding a section that features the player with the top projected percentage odds of the week to hit cash game value, which follows the same methodology I use to calculate projected odds of hitting tournament value in my GPP Leverage Score metric.
Unconventional Stacks
QB Dak Prescott + RB Ezekiel Elliott + WR Dez Bryant
The Cowboys have the highest implied total of the main slate in the only game with an over/under of 50 or more (the line is Dallas -2, 52.5 as of this writing), which is precisely the type of circumstances under which this type of stack hits. On DraftKings when a QB-RB-WR stack scores 75 or more combined points, the team is the favorite 72.5% of the time, the average implied total is 25.0, and the average spread is close—2.8 points. When a QB-RB-WR stack scores 75 or more combined points on FanDuel, those figures are 80.0%, 25.7, and 3.4, respectively. What’s more, of the 15 plays the Cowboys have run at or inside the opponent’s 10-yard line, Dez and Zeke are responsible for six looks apiece, and Dak also has a TD run. If you’re scoring at home, that’s 87% of Dallas’ plays at or inside the 10 that the Dak-Zeke-Dez trip has accounted for.
With a ranking of 15th in overall DVOA, Green Bay’s defense has been more mediocre than outright bad, but Dallas is coming off consecutive games where they put up 28 and 30 points points against a Cardinals defense ranked 12th and a Rams defense ranked 13th, respectively. This stack potentially gives you exposure to every TD for a Cowboys team that may have to score a lot of them because their own defense ranks 21st in pass defense DVOA and has little chance of limiting Aaron Rodgers.
RB Jay Ajayi + WR DeVante Parker
It’s come to this. We have to find a way to creatively exploit Tennessee’s 31st-ranked defense in overall DVOA … while avoiding Jay Cutler at all costs. Cutler hasn’t thrown multiple TDs in his last eight starts, hasn’t thrown for more than 252 yards in his last 11 starts, and hasn’t thrown for three TDs in his last 15 starts. The only thing Cutler has been good for this season is force-feeding Parker, who averages 9.0 targets per game and has at least 69 yards in every game.
The Titans, meanwhile, rank dead last in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to wide receivers and have given up a NFL-worst eight TDs to the position. The Titans are also 20th against running backs, and a few weeks removed from his knee issue, Jay Ajayi’s salary (and likely, his ownership as well) has come down at the perfect time for this get-right spot. But hey, if you’re not on board with this stack you could go naked Cutler instead:
Best Odds to Hit Cash Game Value
Todd Gurley / Le’Veon Bell 71% on FanDuel and Todd Gurley 64% on DraftKings
(Note: For a complete explanation of how these odds are calculated, see the Week 1 edition of this column.)
With Le’Veon Bell, it’s simple: He’s played 93% of the snaps over the past three weeks while averaging 30.7 touches per game, and faces a funnel defense ranked No. 1 in pass defense DVOA but No. 32 in run defense DVOA. Gurley is the one I think some people may shy away from because of Seattle’s reputation on defense. Seattle, however, is allowing 5.1 yards per carry to running backs, ranks 21st in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs, and ranks 30th in run defense DVOA. Gurley? He only leads the NFL in fantasy points per game. For good measure, Gurley also leads the league in touches per game (26.5), and is second only to Bell over the past three weeks.
Coaching Tendency to Exploit
Jim Bob Cooter Giving Ameer Abdullah Goal-Line Work
Ameer Abdullah has been one of the most frustrating fantasy players since he came into the league—not because of how he plays, but because of how he’s used. From the time Lions offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter took over in the middle of the 2015 season up until this season season, Abdullah averaged 2.0 targets per game and handled just one of Detroit’s 17 carries inside the 10-yard line while active. This season, Abdullah is averaging a career-high 18.8 touches per game, which is 12th in the NFL. We know touch volume is a strong predictor of fantasy production, yet Abdullah is priced as RB17 on the FanDuel main slate and RB20 on the DraftKings main slate. Most importantly, he has handled both of the team’s carries inside the 5-yard line this season, including one he converted for a 3-yard TD last week.
Abdullah did roll his ankle last week, but was cleared to return and said he felt good afterward; I expect his injury designation to be removed prior to this week’s game against Carolina. Abdullah checks all the boxes as a home-favorite RB, and though Carolina may seem like a tough matchup on paper, they rank 12th in run defense DVOA—four spots lower than the Minnesota unit Abdullah posted a 20-94-1 rushing line against last week.
Injury Situation to Exploit
The Giants’ banged-up pass rush…and offense
Much of the focus has been on the Giants’ ineptitude on offense this season, but the bigger surprise has been the struggles of their talented defense; the G-Men rank 31st in run defense DVOA and 25th in pass defense DVOA. This week, their best pass-rushers will not be 100%, if they play at all; Jason Pierre-Paul has a shoulder issue and Olivier Vernon aggravated his ankle injury last week. Both are already struggling—of 101 qualifiers, Vernon ranks 76th and JPP 95th in pass rushing grade, per Pro Football Focus—but the Giants don’t have anyone on the roster with a pass rush grade above 73.2, and that’s Snacks Harrison, a run-stopping defensive tackle. Pressure has been Philip Rivers’ downfall this season: his 56.4 accuracy percentage when pressured ranks 29th on 32 QBs this season, per PFF. Not only should Rivers have ample time to throw in New Jersey, but he should have the ball a ton, too. While the Giants offense has shown signs of life over the past two weeks, their center (and highest graded offensive lineman) Weston Richburg is in the concussion protocol and unlikely to play. Starting right tackle Bobby Hart is still nursing an ankle injury, and Odell Beckham is as well, in addition to a dislocated finger.
The Chargers offense won’t be popular this week because of the reputation of the Giants defense and the fact that LA is an underdog traveling east with an implied total of under 21, but Rivers and company should be squarely in play. Rivers is the best option, however, because it’s difficult to know which of Antonio Gates or Hunter Henry will exploit the Giants’ 31st-ranked defense in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to the position; or to know whether it will be Tyrell Williams or Travis Benjamin to exploit cornerback Eli Apple, who has given up a TD in every game; or to know if Melvin Gordon’s knee is healthy enough for a full workload to exploit the Giants’ aforementioned second-to-last ranking in run defense DVOA.