Raybon's Rollout: Week 7
Welcome back to Raybon’s Rollout, where I highlight the unconventional stacks and players I’ll be rolling out in DFS each week.
The column is largely based on my intensive research on stacking and coaching tendencies, and this year I’m adding a section that features the player with the top projected percentage odds of the week to hit cash game value, which follows the same methodology I use to calculate projected odds of hitting tournament value in my GPP Leverage Score metric.
Unconventional Stacks
QB Dak Prescott + WR Dez Bryant + WR Pierre Garcon
Almost quietly, Prescott’s 22.46 fantasy points per game rank second among QBs on FanDuel and fourth among QBs on DraftKings. Dez Bryant ranks first in percentage of team targets inside the 10-yard line (54.5%) and second in percentage of team targets in the red zone (37.5%) behind DeAndre Hopkins, who is on a bye this week. That means there will be no more correlated quarterback-receiver pairing this week than Dak and Dez, who will take on a pass funneling 49ers defense that ranks 13th in run defense DVOA but 26th in pass defense DVOA. (Really, the 49ers defense is just bad as a whole—they also rank 31st in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs and 27th to offenses overall, meaning Ezekiel Elliott is a solid addition to this stack.)
While adding George Kittle to this stack is one option now that he’s reunited with his college quarterback, C.J. Beathard, the correlation between opposing games games is strongest among opposing No. 1 wide receivers, and Garcon saw a team-leading eight of Beathard’s 36 targets last week. With an average of 9.3 targets per game on the season, Garcon is one of only 10 wideouts averaging 9.0 targets per game or more. Dallas is ranked a middling 15th in DVOA versus No. 1 wide receivers, 19th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs, and 23rd in pass defense DVOA. If the Cowboys offense has success as expected, Garcon will have opportunities to rack up volume against a defense that offers little resistance.
RB Mark Ingram + WR Michael Thomas
This stack plays off two things that are likely to happen in this game: the Saints controlling the game against backup quarterback Brett Hundley, and the Saints attacking the Packers weakness at cornerback. Mark Ingram’s situation this week is reminiscent of Melvin Gordon’s last week, as both are coming off huge games and corresponding salary increases that may deter some DFS players from using them even though they’re in a good spot again. Green Bay ranks a middling 18th in run defense DVOA and 16th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs, but this is really about Ingram, whose weekly carry-plus-target totals have increased every week (11, 12, 18, 22, 30).
Thomas, meanwhile, has led the Saints in targets in every game, a trend which should continue against a Green Bay defense that opponents target with wide receivers 62% of the time, tied for fifth-most in the NFL. The Packers have no perimeter cornerback ranked in the top-60 of Pro Football Focus’ positional grades, and three ranked below 80th. The team is ranked 22nd in DVOA to opposing No. 1 wideouts, allowing 9.3 targets for 83.8 yards per game, per Football Outsiders. It’s also worth noting that Thomas and Ingram have correlated well, albeit in a relatively small sample: In the four games where Ingram has scored 20 or more PPR points during Thomas’ short career, Thomas averages 18.0 PPR points and 14.8 half-PPR points—better than his averages of 16.3 and 13.3, respectively, in games when Ingram doesn’t score 20-plus PPR points. I recommended the Saints DST as a cash game play last week, and I wouldn’t deter you from including their upstart defense in this stack as well against Hundley in his first start.
Best Odds to Hit Cash Game Value
Todd Gurley: 66% on FanDuel, 60% on DraftKings
(Note: For a complete explanation of how these odds are calculated, see the Week 1 edition of this column.)
The Cardinals defense looks good on paper, but despite allowing 3.4 yards per carry and ranking fourth in run defense DVOA, they rank a middling 13th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs. Gurley ranks first in the league among running backs in both DraftKings points per game (24.8) and FanDuel points per game (21.0), but comes at a discount to Le’Veon Bell, Leonard Fournette, and Ezekiel Elliott this week. In Gurley’s one bad fantasy game, against Seattle in Week 5, he flukily lost a touchdown when the ball was ruled as being knocked out of his hands prior to crossing the goal-line for a touchback. Gurley averages 24.3 touches per game, third in the NFL behind only Bell (27.3) and Elliott (24.4).
Coaching Tendency to Exploit
Patrick Peterson’s shadow coverage (and the benching of Justin Bethel)
Patrick Peterson looks good to go despite being hampered by a quad injury, and he’ll be tasked with shadowing Sammy Watkins this week. That leaves Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp to do battle with 34-year-old Tramon Williams and not-the-same-as-pre-injury Tyrann Mathieu, respectively. While Peterson has only been targeted 20 times all season and allowed just seven catches, Bethel had been targeted 42 times while Mathieu has been targeted 30 times.
Woods will be the prime beneficiary of Bethel’s benching, as he’ll get to feast on the end-of-the-line version of Williams. Over his past four games Woods is quietly averaging 4.5 grabs for 65.3 yards on 7.0 targets per game. Kupp, meanwhile, is tied for fifth in the league in percentage of team targets inside the 10-yard line (42.9%). The Cardinals are ranked 29th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs.
Injury Situation to Exploit
The Bills’ banged up offense missing Charles Clay (knee) and likely Jordan Matthews (thumb)
It’s easy to avoid the Bills—just ask four Super Bowls in the mid ‘90s—but doing so may not be wise given the defense they’re up against this week. The Buccaneers have allowed the third-most schedule adjusted fantasy points to offenses as a whole in PPR formats, and somebody has to score those points. As the team leader in both carries per game (17.4) and targets per game (6.4), LeSean McCoy has monster volume upside this week, and it’s worth noting McCoy has historically been at his best when his team is a home favorite. Also worth noting for large-field GPP hopefuls and early-only slate DFS players is that Clay and Matthews have accounted for 33% of the team’s red zone targets and 31% of their targets overall, leaving a large chunk of production to go to players at or near the minimum price across sites.
Tight end Nick O’Leary stepped with a 5-56 line on 6 targets in Buffalo’s last game, and rookie wideout Zay Jones and veteran Andre Holmes are likely to approach 100% snap rates. Jones has been targeted a lot more than Holmes, but has turned 23 targets into only five receptions for 66 yards. Holmes only has eight targets, but is second on the team in red zone target share (14.3%) behind the injured Clay and has hit paydirt twice. Tampa Bay ranks dead last in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs (and third-to-last to QBs). Disgustingly, we might even see Mike Tolbert play a huge role, as he has handled 60% of the team’s carries inside the 5-yard line this season and has two games of double-digit touches already.