Rays vs. Red Sox Odds, Prediction & Preview: Playoff Picks for Game 3
Rays vs. Red Sox Odds
| Rays Odds | -104 |
| Red Sox Odds | -112 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 |
| Date | Sunday, Oct. 10 |
| Time | 4:07 p.m. |
| TV | MLB Network |
On Sunday afternoon, the Tampa Bay Rays and the Boston Red Sox will battle in the American League Division Series at Fenway Park. Entering play, Tampa Bay has won eight of their last 12 games. Boston has won six of their last eight contests. In Game 3, the Rays will send Drew Rasmussen to the hill. He will be opposed by Nathan Eovaldi. Oddsmakers are anticipating a Red Sox victory, pricing Boston as -112 home favorites.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Tampa Bay Rays (-104)
Across 76.0 innings of work in 2021, Rasmussen posted a 2.84 ERA, 3.65 xERA, and a 3.09 FIP. He was even better after being transitioned into the starting rotation in mid-August—delivering a 1.46 ERA and a 2.76 FIP across his final eight trips to the mound to end the regular season. In 13.0 innings against the Red Sox since August 12, Rasmussen allowed only three earned runs on 10 hits while striking-out 11 batters. The main concerns for Rasmussen’s long-term success include an unimpressive 16.9 strikeout percentage as a starter and a 53.3 percent hard-hit rate. He was also extraordinarily lucky on balls in play over the final two months of the regular season with a .198 BABIP. Bettors should not blindly bet on Rasmussen based on his recent level of surface-level success.
Against right-handed pitching in 2021, the Rays ranked eighth in OPS, fifth in ISO, fifth in walk-rate, and 22nd in strikeout-percentage at the plate. In Game 1, Tampa Bay scored five runs in a Game 1 victory and six runs in a Game 2 loss. Randy Arozarena, Wander Franco, Brandon Lowe, and Nelson Cruz are not the biggest names in baseball, but the top of this lineup is as dangerous as any team in the game. Expect this group to continue to have good at-bats, and to create plenty of run-scoring opportunities.
David Robertson was the only member of the Tampa Bay bullpen to appear in each of the first two games of this series. Collin McHugh threw 34 pitches on Friday evening, making it unlikely that he will see action on Sunday. Manager Kevin Cash has everyone else from this talented relief unit rested and available for a pivotal Game 3.
Boston Red Sox (-112)
Eovaldi was sensational in the American League Wild Card Game against the New York Yankees, delivering 5.1 innings of work, allowing only one earned run on four hits while striking-out eight batters. In 32 regular season starts, he posted a 3.75 ERA, 3.37 xERA, and a 2.79 FIP. However, he was dominant when pitching at Fenway Park with a 2.43 FIP and a 1.12 WHIP. Eovaldi draws a tough assignment in this one against a dangerous Rays lineup, but should still be able to deliver a strong outing.
After being shutout in Game 1, the Red Sox lineup erupted for 14 runs in Game 2 to even up this series. Enrique Hernandez, Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts, Alex Verdugo, and J.D. Martinez were responsible for nearly all of the damage—driving in 12 of the team’s 14 runs from the two-through-six spots in the order. Against right-handed pitching this year, the Red Sox ranked second in OPS, second in ISO, 19th in walk-rate, and 17th in strikeout percentage. Against Rasmussen, a low-strikeout pitcher who surrenders an abundance of hard-contact, Boston could be in for a big day at the plate, despite their recent run of poor production in head-to-head matchups against Sunday’s opposing starter.
Boston’s bullpen continues to be a concern. Tanner Houck saved this group from being overtaxed, throwing five innings in relief of Chris Sale, who was tagged for five runs in only one inning of work in Game 2. Matt Barnes once again struggled to close-out the game, allowing multiple baserunners and needing 33 pitches to secure the win. There are no usage issues for Manager Alex Cora’s bullpen, but there are certainly reliability problems.
Rays vs. Red Sox – Game 3 Picks
Boston was barely a .500 ballclub on the road during the regular season, but they finished an outstanding 49-32 at Fenway Park, which was the sixth-best home record in all of baseball. Eovaldi is one of the best starting pitchers in baseball when throwing in his home ballpark. Avoid the possibility of a late blown lead and bet Boston to win the first five innings.
PICK: Red Sox ML, First 5 innings (-130)
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