Rays vs. Red Sox Odds, Prediction & Preview: Playoff Picks for Game 4

by Nick Galaida (nickgalaida) Last Updated 2021-10-11 18:42:36

Rays vs. Red Sox Odds

On Monday evening, the Tampa Bay Rays and the Boston Red Sox will battle in the American League Division Series at Fenway Park. Entering play, Tampa Bay has won eight of their last 13 games. Boston has won seven of their last nine contests. In Game 4, the Rays will send Collin McHugh to the hill as they look to keep their season alive. He will be opposed by Eduardo Rodriguez. Oddsmakers are anticipating a tightly-contested affair, pricing this game at a pick’em.

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.

Tampa Bay Rays (-108)

McHugh was outstanding across 64.0 innings of work this year for Tampa Bay—posting a 1.55 ERA, 2.31 xERA, and a 2.12 FIP. In his last six trips to the mound during the regular season, he allowed only two earned runs in 8.2 innings. Considering that he has not faced more than 10 batters in an appearance since April, bettors should expect him to serve as an opener. Tampa Bay used eight different pitchers in yesterday’s extra-inning loss, but only David Robertson threw more than 20 pitches. Other than Robertson, Manager Kevin Cash should have everyone available in his bullpen as he tries to send this series back to Tropicana Field for a winner-take-all Game 5.

The Rays have scored five runs, six runs, and four runs, respectively, in the first three games of this series. Wander Franco, Austin Meadows, and Randy Arozarena have produced big numbers for this offense against the Red Sox, but it could be southpaw-killers, Nelson Cruz and Jordan Luplow that are the difference-makers in Game 4. During the regular season, Cruz had a .913 OPS, .222 ISO, and a 142 wRC+ against left-handed pitching. Luplow is not a household name, but he also destroyed left-handers in 2021, delivering an .899 OPS, .295 ISO, and a 139 wRC+.

Boston Red Sox (-108)

Rodriguez was less than spectacular in Game 1 of this series, lasting only 1.2 innings in a losing effort. However, there is hope for a better performance from him as the Red Sox look to advance to the American League Championship series. As has been the case throughout his career, Rodriguez was at his best when pitching at Fenway Park in 2021. At home, he posted a 3.25 FIP and a 29.1 strikeout percentage. Prior to getting roughed up in Game 1 against Tampa Bay, Rodriguez had turned in a 2.11 ERA and a 1.86 FIP across his previous 21.1 innings of work. Bettors should expect a solid performance from the southpaw on Monday.

Boston was shutout in the series opener, but rebounded to score 14 runs in Game 2 and another six runs in Game 3 to move within one game of advancing to the next round of the playoffs. The middle of the order did the majority of the damage in Game 2, but there were contributions from everyone in their Game 3 win. When this offense is getting production out of Hunter Renfroe and Christian Arroyo, there is little that opposing pitchers can do to slow this lineup down.

The Red Sox used six pitchers in yesterday’s 13-inning affair, but only Nick Pivetta threw more than 19 pitches. Manager Alex Cora should have everyone other than Pivetta available tonight as he seeks to close-out the series at home.

Pick

There has been an abundance of offense the last two games between Tampa Bay and Boston, which has understandably inflated the totals market ahead of Game 4. However, Cash’s decision to go with a bullpen game should keep this contest relatively low-scoring, at least in the early going. Rodriguez did not look good in Game 1, but he is a quality starting pitcher, who is capable of keeping opposing hitters off balance. McHugh has not thrown since Friday, so he should be rested and ready to limit run-scoring opportunities in the early frames. A play on the under for the first five innings could be a profitable endeavor for bettors.

PICK: Under 5.5 runs, First 5 innings (-162)

Image Credit: Imagn