Red Sox vs. Rays Odds, Prediction & Preview: Playoff Picks for Game 2
Red Sox vs. Rays Odds
| Red Sox Odds | +120 |
| Rays Odds | -142 |
| Over/Under | 7.5 |
| Date | Friday, Oct. 8 |
| Time | 7:02 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
On Friday evening, the Boston Red Sox and the Tampa Bay Rays will battle in the American League Division Series at Tropicana Field. Entering play, Boston has won five of their last seven games. Tampa Bay has won eight of their last 11 contests. In Game 2, the Red Sox will send Chris Sale to the hill. He will be opposed by Shane Baz. Oddsmakers are anticipating the Rays securing a commanding 2-0 series lead, pricing Tampa Bay as -142 home favorites.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Boston Red Sox (+120)
As recently as 2018, Sale was one of the most dominant starting pitchers in baseball. However, that is not the Sale that will be on the mound for Boston tonight. Since returning from the injured list, he has posted a 3.16 ERA, 3.49 xERA, and a 3.69 FIP—good, but not elite numbers. In Sale’s career, he owns a 2.71 FIP and a 1.06 WHIP on the road, so there should be little concern about him pitching in a hostile environment in this one. Bettors should expect around five solid innings from Sale in this one, but do not expect a vintage, elite performance from a guy who still appears to be working himself back into game shape on the mound.
Against left-handed pitching in 2021, Boston ranked eighth in OPS, 18th in ISO, 19th in walk-rate, and 3rd in strikeout percentage. Since the beginning of September, the Red Sox lineup ranks third in OPS and seventh in ISO overall. This is a talented collection of players, featuring legitimate stars in Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, and Enrique Hernandez. Yet, getting shutout in Game 1 by a rookie pitcher will do little to inspire bettors to trust these guys in Game 2. The Rays had nearly a week to prepare for this series. Tampa Bay’s usage of advanced analytics against Boston’s best hitters is going to be difficult to overcome.
Eduardo Rodriguez lasted only 1.2 innings in yesterday’s loss, but thankfully, Nick Pivetta was able to save the bullpen by lasting 4.2 innings in relief. Closer Matt Barnes has been less than stellar since the All-Star break, but Garrett Whitlock, Adam Ottavino, Hirokazu Sawamura, and Hansel Robles have all seen high-leverage work and experienced moderate success. Manager Alex Cora will have all of his top weapons rested and available in this one.
Tampa Bay Rays (-142)
Tampa Bay simply does not care about baseball tradition. After starting a rookie in Game 1, the Rays are turning to an even more inexperienced rookie, Baz, in Game 2. Baz has only 13.1 innings of MLB experience under his belt entering play tonight. In three starts during the final month of the regular season, he posted a 2.03 ERA, 2.55 xERA, and a 4.07 FIP. The Rays apparently feel comfortable inserting the young pitcher into this pressure situation, and it is hard to blame them after Baz’s dominance in the minor leagues. There is only a small professional track record for bettors to trust in this one, but Baz looks like the real deal.
Prior to the trade deadline, the Rays had one of the worst offenses in the league against left-handed pitching. The addition of Nelson Cruz and Jordan Luplow, plus the emergence of Wander Franco as a star player, seemed to remedy this issue over the final few months of the regular season.
Yesterday, the Rays put four men on base against the lefty, Rodriguez in less than two innings to start the game—plating a pair of runs. Since September 1, Tampa Bay ranks eighth in OPS and sixth in ISO. This lineup does not have many household names, but there is no shortage of talent on offense for the Rays.
Arguably Tampa Bay’s biggest strength is their relief unit, and the fact that they use their relievers in the most unpredictable ways imaginable. Manager Kevin Cash used three relief pitchers to cover five innings in yesterday’s victory, leaving him with a wide assortment of rested options for tonight’s matchup. After using J.P. Feyereisen to close-out the game yesterday, Cash will likely lean on a combination of Andrew Kittredge, Pete Fairbanks, and Collin McHugh in the late innings today. Cash might not be able to engineer another shutout, but it would be surprising to see Boston have much sustained offensive success in this contest.
Red Sox vs. Rays Picks
Since the beginning of the 2019 campaign, Tropicana Field has generated the second-fewest offensive production of any venue in Major League Baseball, including a home run rate that is 21 percent below league average. Yesterday’s affair totaled only five runs. There is some risk to the under in this one, considering the strength of both of these offenses. Nevertheless, two capable starting pitchers and two capable bullpens are likely to lead to another low-scoring affair. Bettors should strongly consider a play on the under.
PICK: Under 7.5 (-110)
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