Remove Your Orange Life Jacket!

JMToWin

It’s 2015.

You know what that means, right? It means that by the end of this year, we’ll have flying cars and self-fitted clothing and Hoverboards, and the weather will be predicted with absolute accuracy. Oh, also, the Cubs will win the World Series.

I’m not the only one who has seen the ‘Back to the Future’ movies, am I? I hope not. In fact, I hope I’m not the only one who has re-watched them this year, as this is the year in the “future” to which Marty McFly traveled. This is the year in which we had those flying cars and Hoverboards.

While thinking about the topic I wanted to write about this week, ‘Back to the Future’ came to mind – particularly, Lyon Estates came to mind.

In the ‘Back to the Future’ movies, we see Lyon Estates in 1955, when it was first being built: “LIVE IN THE HOME OF TOMORROW…Today!” We also, of course, see Lyon Estates in 1985, when Marty and his family live there: it’s a pleasant, safe neighborhood – a good place to raise a family.

And then, we see Lyon Estates in the Alternate 1985. This is the 1985 in which Biff has been using the sports almanac to dominate sports betting and build himself an empire; in this 1985, Lyon Estates is a mess. Graffiti is splashed across the entry. There are bars on the house windows. When Marty tries to enter his own house – when he tries to enter his own room – he ends up in the same room with a young girl who starts screaming, and Marty is subsequently chased with a baseball bat by an angry dad. You see, things had changed. Times were different. Marty failed to adjust his thinking, and this got him in trouble.

If we wanted to look at another example of Marty failing to adjust his thinking – failing to adjust his approach – we could also travel back to the past: 1955. If you recall, Marty traveled to 1955 in the first ‘Back to the Future’ movie, and everyone thought he was a sailor who had maybe jumped ship because of the “life jacket” he was wearing. Of course, since we’re hip to the styles of 1985, you and I know it was actually just a puffy, orange, zip-in-the-front vest that he was wearing because (Dimitri Martin shoutout) there was a very narrow cold front coming through, and Marty needed to keep the central part of his body warm. While Marty knew he looked pretty awesome for 1985, however, he failed to adjust to what looked cool in 1955, and this led to him looking like an idiot to everyone else.

Okay, so that’s maybe not the best tie-in ever. Look: there wasn’t a lot to choose from for “people traveling to different times and being out of place.” But don’t worry – we’re not hanging out with Marty McFly any longer; we’re moving onto baseball.

The reason I thought about all this? Well, partly it’s just because I loved the ‘Back to the Future’ movies as a kid, and you can’t really blame me for bringing out a ‘Back to the Future’ article here in 2015. But also, I thought of this because July 31 is one of the greatest holidays of the year: the MLB Trade Deadline.

Some years, of course, the trade deadline comes and goes with very little activity. Other years, the trade deadline blows our collective mind. I’m hoping this year falls into the latter category (the trade deadline is always more fun when that’s the case!), but even if there are no major, “blow our minds” trades this year at the deadline, we have already seen a flurry of relevant movement.

Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe have moved from the Braves to the Mets.

Johnny Cueto has been shipped to Kansas City.

Scott Kazmir has returned to his hometown of Houston.

Aramis Ramirez has gone back to the Pirates.

We cannot say, at the moment, what will happen throughout the rest of this week, but several additional pieces from the Brewers may be on the move (Gerardo Parra? Adam Lind?). Cole Hamels will likely be in a new rotation within a few days, and David Price may be as well. The Padres – after their offseason of spending – may have a trade deadline of unloading, with Justin Upton, Will Venable, and Ian Kennedy the names likeliest to be on the move, but with other arms and even bats for sale as well. David Murphy, Martin Prado, and even Mike Napoli (hahaha!) have seen their names come up in trade talks, and by Friday evening we will know where everyone is going.

Once we know that, everything will change…

Now, obviously, this is something that all of us know in a fundamental sense. “Sure, a player goes to a new team, it changes that player’s outlook.” But do we know exactly how a player’s outlook changes based on a change of scenery? Are we at risk of entering the wrong house in the Alternate 1985, or of wearing our “life jacket” around Hilldale like a total prat in 1955?

In order to ensure you are able to adjust (don’t go into the house you think is yours if it has bars where there were no bars before! – don’t wear your stupid orange life jacket around town when it’s clearly 1955! don’t assume each pitcher has the same value or each team is the same matchup after the trade deadline has passed!), we are going to look at a couple ways in which you need to reassess a player’s value once they have changed teams.

PITCHERS CHANGING TEAMS: HOW ARE THEY AFFECTED?

A high-strikeout pitcher will, obviously, rely on his strikeout abilities in order to record a great number of his outs (file that under “Duh”). But as much as a high-strikeout pitcher would love to go out there and scrub out each batter he faces with a quick K, this will never actually end up being the case. In other words: all pitchers allow balls in play…and all pitchers must rely on the defense behind them once a ball is put in play. When a pitcher changes teams, then, shouldn’t we be paying attention to the change in defense behind them?

Fangraphs has a great stat that is simply called “Defense” (and is labeled as “Def” on their fielding pages), which combines Fielding Runs Above Average with an adjustment for position. Basically, by looking at a team’s overall “Def” number, you can see how many runs above or below average (that is, how many runs above or below the average defensive player, at each position) that particular defense has saved or allowed.

As of this writing, the Royals have the best team defense, with an incredible 43.1 runs saved above average. Considering the Royals have played 97 games, that means their defense is saving about 0.44 runs every single game – runs that would be scored if the Royals instead had a league average player at every position.

On the other hand, we have the Astros, who have played 100 games…and have allowed 10.1 more runs than they would have allowed if their team were filled with league average defenders (if this sounds bad, how about this: last year, by the end of the season, the Astros had allowed 74 more runs than they would have allowed with an average defender at every position!). In other words: each game, on average, the Astros allow 0.1 more runs than a “team filled with perfectly average defenders” would allow.

It’s interesting, of course, that those two teams are at opposite ends of the “Defense” statistic, as each of those teams has added a big-name pitcher this last week.

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Johnny Cueto receives a slight downgrade for no longer being able to face a pitcher every time through the lineup, but he gains an upgrade in defense, as the Reds have been slightly below average this year. He also gains a park bonus (something that needs to be taken into account), as Kauffman Stadium is far less friendly to home run hitters than Great American Ballpark.

Scott Kazmir also gains a slight defensive bonus, as the A’s have allowed 17.4 runs above what they would have allowed with an average defender at every position. To illustrate what things can look like the other way, however (with a pitcher’s expectations falling after a trade), I’m going to take a moment to travel back to the future (um…“back to the past,” I guess) and pretend that Kazmir was traded to the Astros last year – with last year’s Astros and A’s defensive stats in play (as the Astros were the worst defense in the league last year, and the A’s were ranked seventh).

Last year, the Astros allowed 74 more runs than they would have with an average player at every position, while the A’s saved 13.7 runs. For the Astros, that’s -0.46 runs per game, and for the A’s, that’s +0.08 runs per game.

The difference between the A’s and the Astros in runs above average (with positional adjustments) allowed per game last year, then, was 0.54 runs per game. In other words: if a pitcher with perfectly average strikeout stuff and a perfectly standard batted balls profile moved from the A’s to the Astros last year and pitched 162 games, he would see his runs allowed rise by about 0.54 per game (not necessarily earned runs, of course, but runs nonetheless). That’s how much a pitcher’s expectations can change in moving from one team to another!

Of course, it is important to also realize that some pitchers allow the ball to be put in play less often than others (the higher a pitcher’s K%, the less often the ball is being put in play), so some pitchers rely on defense less than others. But all pitchers rely on defense to at least some extent (heck, even a “high-strikeout, low-walk pitcher” allows the ball to be put in play about 70% of the time).

As pitchers move this week, realize three things:

A pitcher’s value is impacted by the defense behind him.

A pitcher’s value is impacted by the ballpark in which he is pitching.

A pitcher’s price is dictated by how he has performed in the past, rather than by how he is likely to perform in the future.

As pitchers change hands this week, take some time to look at the change in defense behind them, study up on the change in ballpark for each pitcher, and determine whether you feel this means the pitchers in question will be undervalued for their first few starts with their new team, or will instead be priced higher than they should be.

HITTERS CHANGING TEAMS: HOW ARE THEY AFFECTED?

Let’s imagine a world in which the Nationals decide to move Bryce Harper, and the Diamondbacks decide to trade for him. Let’s then imagine that the Diamondbacks slot Harper into the four hole, while batting Paul Goldschmidt third. What would that do for the value of Goldy?

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Right now, Goldy has the second highest walk rate in all of Major League Baseball (Harper is first). But also, Goldy has the most intentional walks in Major League Baseball – with a whopping 22 (nearly double the next highest guy). You see, because Goldy walks so much, he is a consistent and safe source of daily fantasy points…but he also walks so much that we often see his ceiling lowered. Even worse is the massive number of intentional walks, as those always come in RBI situations. That means that there have been 22 times this year when Goldy had the bat taken out of his hands when he had a chance to drive in runs (gaining minimal DFS points when he could have gained a bunch) – and that does not even include all of the pseudo intentional walks, where the pitcher basically pitched around him. Sure, a lot of Goldy’s walks are the result of a patient hitter with a good eye being willing to let bad pitches pass him. But another huge contributor to the massive walk rate is the fact that Goldy has no protection behind him.

If we woke up tomorrow, however, and Bryce Harper were batting behind Paul Goldschmidt, we would suddenly be looking at a much more lethal version of Goldy. No one wants to put runners on base in front of Bryce Harper if they can help it, so while pitchers would still be as careful as they possibly could with Goldy, the extent to which they “possibly could” be careful would be much smaller. They would have to pitch to him more…and with that, he would have more opportunities than he currently has to do damage.

Now, obviously, that’s a dream world – an Alternate 2015, so to speak. But that “dream world illustration” is in place to provide an extreme example of the way a hitter’s value can change when he changes teams.

When hitters move to new locations this week, take a moment to assess the lineup protection they had before, and the lineup protection they have now. Also, assess the guys they had hitting in front of them before, and the guys they have hitting in front of them now (after all, you cannot drive in many runs if the guys in front of you are not doing their job; some guys will move into better RBI situations this week, and some guys will move into worse RBI situations this week). And, of course, pay attention to the ballpark to which they are moving!

There may be plenty of hitters this week who see their value change as a result of trades. Their pricing is likely to remain the same for a little while – based on their previous production (and their previous situation). If you can adjust before the pricing algorithms do, you will have a nice window to get guys for cheaper than they should be priced, and to avoid paying up for guys who should no longer be priced quite so high.

HITTERS CHANGING TEAMS: HOW ARE PITCHERS AFFECTED?

This is probably the most important element of all, as it is the one that will have the largest day-to-day impact on you during the last two months of the season.

At this point – nearly four full months into the baseball season – we all feel very comfortable looking at this year’s stats in order to assess a team. How much strikeout upside does a lineup offer our pitcher? How safe is a pitcher against a particular lineup? How much power or run-scoring ability does a lineup have? At this point, we can comfortably look at season stats (with maybe a splash of “last 14 days” or “last 30 days” stats mixed in for balance) to assess the matchup our pitcher has in front of him.

But now, things change. Now, with the trade deadline upon us, a lineup spot that used to feature a guy with a 25% strikeout rate and a .301 wOBA may now feature a guy with a 15% strikeout rate and a .360 wOBA. Conversely, the guy with the 15% strikeout rate and the .360 wOBA has left a hole on his previous team that is now being filled by a sub-average player (perhaps a guy with, say, a 25% strikeout rate and a .301 wOBA!).

You see? I’ve said all year that one hitter can change the complexion of an entire lineup. Well, this week, there may be plenty of “one hitters” who are moving to new teams.

This week, it will be important for you to pay attention to the movement at the trade deadline. Take the time to assess how each lineup changes with the additions or subtractions that have been made. And as we move into the next couple weeks, continue to pay attention to the matchup each team provides for pitchers now that lineups are changing. In this way, you will be hip to what’s happening in the present, instead of relying on outdated knowledge to determine the moves you should make.

In this way, you can make sure you’re not the only one wearing an orange “life jacket” in 1955.

About the Author

JMToWin
JM Tohline (JMToWin)

JM Tohline (Tuh-lean) – DFS alias JMToWin – is a novelist and a DFS player who specializes in high-stakes MLB and NFL tourneys, with a strategy geared toward single-entry play in multi-entry tourneys. He joined the DFS scene at the beginning of the 2014 MLB season, and has since won five DFS championship seats and two separate trips to the Bahamas. His tendency to type a lot of words leads to a corresponding tendency to divulge all his DFS thoughts, strategies, and secrets…which is exactly what he does in his RotoGrinders articles and RotoAcademy courses. You can find JM on Twitter at JMToWin.