RG Newsletter #14: DFS/Betting Community News, Stats, Trends, And More!
Hey Grinders,
The addition of two playoff teams kinda got lost in all the chaos of the NFL season. The No. 2 seeds (Buffalo and New Orleans) having to play in the first round looks huge right now with both teams dealing with injuries. And we could have a No. 7 seed win a Super Bowl!
As always, hit us up on Twitter, Instagram or Facebook if you have something you want to see in this space!
In this week’s edition:
- Top Stacks for Wild Card Weekend
- PGA is Back
- Sports Betting Expansion in 2021
- Quick Hitters
- Schmitto’s Sharp Money
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TOP STACKS FOR WILD CARD WEEKEND
Saturday
Josh Allen + Stefon Diggs
“The other top QB/WR combinations have very difficult matchups, which makes Diggs/Allen grade out way ahead of combinations like Wilson/Metcalf or Brady/Godwin. Despite heavy ownership, I think you absolutely need to be overweight on Diggs and Allen in any format.”
Sunday
Nick Chubb + CLE D/ST
“”(player-popup #ben-roethlisberger)Ben Roethlisberger”:/players/ben-roethlisberger-11615 has had to force throws and has made a lot more mistakes in the second half of the season. Diontae Johnson still gets the dropsies at times. Cleveland’s defense isn’t elite but isn’t terrible, either, and I’ll gladly take them at 10-15% ownership on a short slate.
Cleveland’s defensive upside is enhanced if they are able to get a lead in this game. That would allow them to focus on defending the pass even more. Therefore, it makes sense to correlate the CLE D/ST lineups with some Nick Chubb exposure. He is still the grinding, early down and red zone back on this team, and he has scored in six consecutive games.”
Full Core Stacks article ($) from STLCardinals84 HERE
PGA IS BACK
The PGA season kicked off this week with a small-field event, and next week we get our first big tournament with the Sony Open.
Our PGA product is led by golf GOATs Notorious, STLCardinals84 and ToeTagginTambo, and they’re pumping out amazing content every week!
The PGA product includes:
- LineupHQ Optimizer with projections for every main slate
- Articles for both cash games and GPPs
- Video content for main slates and showdown slates
- Projected ownership for every main slate
- Premium Discord chat to speak directly to our analysts
- And more!
IS SPORTS BETTING COMING TO YOUR STATE THIS YEAR?
Check out the 2021 outlook for Michigan, Virginia, North Carolina, Washington, Maryland, South Dakota, Louisiana, Ohio, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Georgia and Nebraska!
State-By-State Sports Betting Expansion: What To Expect In 2021 – By Eric Raskin for USBets
“In 2020, six states/districts took their first legal sports bets, two states passed legislation to regulate sports gambling, and three states saw voters approve November referendums that will make a sports betting launch possible in the near future.
For all of 2020’s obvious faults, it stood as a third consecutive year of significant progress in the U.S. sports wagering industry.
And 2021 could potentially be the year in which that industry crosses a key tipping point: By the end of these 12 months, the number of jurisdictions in which you can place a legal sports bet might outnumber those in which you can’t.” … READ HERE
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WHAT ABOUT NEW YORK? Gov. Andrew Cuomo surprisingly supported mobile sports betting this week. NJ Online Gambling covered Cuomo’s announcement HERE, and USBets detailed Cuomo’s desire to have the state lottery take control of sports betting HERE. But is it time to get excited? Jill Dorson says curb your enthusiasm in this opinion piece for Sports Handle.
INJURY NEWS FOR WILD CARD WEEKEND
Plenty of big spots to monitor these weekend, here’s the latest on the key players:
- Jared Goff (Thumb) – Went through throwing drills on Wednesday, remains questionable.
- Alvin Kamara (COVID-19 list) – Practiced virtually on Wednesday, eligible to come off the COVID list on Sunday. Tweeted “See y’all Sunday” on Thursday.
- Michael Thomas (Ankle) – Came off IR and practiced on Wednesday, expected to play.
- Mike Evans (Knee) – Game-time decision, head coach Bruce Arians said he “has a chance” to play on Saturday.
- Cole Beasley (Knee) – Practiced on Thursday, remains questionable.
For full injury news and ramifications, check out our NFL Injury Report HERE
QUICK HITTERS
Stat of the Week: Washington is the third team in NFL history to make the playoffs with a record below .500. The two previous teams (Seattle in 2010 and Carolina in 2014) won a playoff game. And that Carolina team? Coached by Ron Rivera.
Top Game Total (Main slate): 55 – Baltimore Ravens @ Tennessee Titans
Top Team Total (Main slate): 29 – Baltimore Ravens
Top Ownership (Saturday): As of Friday morning, our top owned player is Jonathan Taylor on FanDuel (54.58%) and DraftKings (55.8%).
Top Ownership (Sunday): As of Friday morning, our top owned player is Alvin Kamara on FanDuel (50.82%) and DraftKings (49.7%).
Weather Watch (via Kevin Roth): Some chilly temps but not much impact. Full forecast HERE
Free Stuff Friday: We’re giving away a 5-day NFL Premium pass! Enter for a chance at access to tools and content for Wild Card weekend HERE
SCHMITTO’S SHARP MONEY
Baltimore Ravens @ Tennessee Titans +3
“The Ravens were far overvalued at the start of the season, hence being 3.5-point favorites over the Chiefs in Week 3, but now we’re seeing Baltimore undervalued in the betting market.
The Ravens have covered five consecutive games since losing to the Steelers in the first weekend of December. Their opponents haven’t been all that impressive, but the Ravens certainly look more like the team we were expecting. Sure, Baltimore will have their hands full with Derrick Henry but I don’t see how the Titans defense keeps Lamar Jackson and J.K. Dobbins from scoring.”
Read Matt Schmitto’s full Wild Card weekend betting picks HERE
NICOLE’S KNOWLEDGE NUGGET
In the Rebuild/Late Swap section of LineupHQ, “Relax Build Rules” is a new checkbox to quickly help more rebuilds succeed. The settings listed in the tooltip are the ones that will be used when the box is checked on a rebuild. It is checked by default, so you need to turn it off if you want to rebuild with groups and more than one unique player.
TWITTER POLL RESULTS
Which Steelers WR are you playing in GPPs?
— RotoGrinders (@RotoGrinders) November 19, 2020
Close one. FanDuel and DraftKings have three-game slates for both days and a six-game slate, but the “main” slates with the bigger contests are the three-gamers.
CONTENT CENTER
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