Risers and Fallers: Volume 13
I’m back for another week of reviewing the most interesting players from the past seven days, pairing advanced metrics and insights from my DFS projection system, THE BAT, with my scouting background to try to figure out what to make of some the week’s most active lot of ballplayers. Guys whose stock is going up, guys whose stock is going down, guys who are perpetually underpriced or overpriced, guys who are worth paying a premium for, or guys who are just interesting and warrant some analysis on.
If anyone ever has a suggestion for a player they’d like to see included, feel free to send me an email or a tweet.
Without further ado, let’s jump right into it!
RISING… AND UNDERPRICED
Randal Grichuk, OF, St. Louis Cardinals
With Brandon Moss headed to the DL, the Cardinals called back up Randal Grichuk. Grichuk has a world of talent and was a major sleeper headed into 2016 but has struggled to the tune of a .288 wOBA before being demoted in the middle of June. Cardinals beat writer Derrick Goold wrote a great article about Grichuk’s issues and the changes he made down at Triple-A, which is a must read.
Essentially, Grichuk was getting in his own head. With the sheer number of options that the Cardinals had, a bad at-bat or a bad night that led to a benching the next day would create a spiral for Grichuk, who responded by continuing to alter his stance and mechanics in attempt to get something going. Of course, this just made things worse. In the minors, Grichuk and Triple-A hitting coach Mark Budaska worked on simplifying things, preaching rhythm and timing. Grichuk studied his mechanics from 2014 when he tore up Triple-A, found a more comfortable stance at the plate, and turned in an excellent couple weeks at Triple-A. Since being recalled, Grichuk holds a wOBA close to .500 with a pair of home runs and just two strikeouts. It’s only been 22 plate appearances, but this is an excellent sign.
Given the adjustments and the underlying talent level, I’m sold on giving Grichuk another shot, especially at his price points. He ended the first half at $3,200 on DraftKings and $2,700 on FanDuel, so especially on days when he’s in the top half of the Cardinals order, he could be a cheap play with big upside. The Cards won’t go into a pitchers’ park until the first week of August, but Busch Stadium can play very hitter-friendly this time of year when it’s hot and humid. They’ll get Miami and San Diego out of the break, which has plenty of exploitable pitchers.
Ketel Marte, SS, Seattle Mariners
The Mariners are having an excellent offensive year and will make a play for a playoff spot in the second half, but one of their biggest weak spots has been the leadoff spot. The announcers in Sunday’s game were talking about how the team will pow-wow over the All-Star break to figure out what to do with one of the most important spots in the order—and a spot from which they rank 27th in baseball in OBP.
Ketel Marte has been their usual leadoff hitter against lefties, but he earned the start on Sunday against a righty and went 2-for-4 with a walk, RBI, and run scored. Marte has posted just a .280 wOBA in the first half of the year, so he’s certainly no sure thing to assume the role full time, but if he does he’d become very interesting. Marte is a speedy slap hitter that I expect to improve at the plate, and at his current high $2,000s-to-low $3,000s DraftKings price tag, he’s a great punt on days when the Mariners project well given the quality of hitters behind him.
Salvador Perez, C, Kansas City Royals
For some reason, Salvador Perez was priced in the mid-to-high-$2,000s on DraftKings this week, making him close to a cash game must play in good matchups like at home against southpaw Wade Miley. After three straight 17+ point games and high ownership rates, he rose to $3,600 on Sunday, which you’d think would close the loophole. Royals manager Ned Yost would have none of it, though, and decided to hit Salvy second in the order, once again making him significantly underpriced. He “only” posted 8 points, but the real story is the boost in the batting order. If that happens to stick when we come out of the All-Star break, he’d be the only catcher outside of J.T. Realmuto to hit that high. And seeing as how he’s a significantly better hitter than Realmuto, that’s kind of huge.
FALLING… AND NO LONGER JUST OVERRATED, BUT BAD
The Kansas City Royals Bullpen
No sooner had I written about how mediocre and overrated the KC bullpen was last week when Wade Davis was placed on the DL. This takes the bullpen from mediocre to bad and downright targetable. With their only truly great pitcher, Kelvin Herrera, now closing games, there are very few real threats to worry about in games where you’re expecting their starting pitcher to give up runs.
RISING… AND PRESENTLY OVERPRICED BUT SHOULD FALL BACK DOWN SOON
Yasmani Grandal, C, Los Angeles Dodgers
Grandal may as well be the poster child for not relying on single-year stats. (Honestly, single year isn’t even the right word. We’re actually only halfway through a year, and solely referencing a hitter’s stats from this season is so terribly flawed from a methodological standpoint, yet we continue to see countless people doing it). Through April and May, Grandal had posted an awful .282 wOBA. Since the start of June, though, he has a .384 mark, bringing his seasonal line up to .325.
This wasn’t any surprise to THE BAT, which liked Grandal despite the slow start and absolutely loves him now. It has him ranked as a top-five catcher, behind only Buster Posey and Jonathan Lucroy and on par with the likes of Brian McCann and Stephen Vogt. (And before you get on me with “what about “(player-popup)Wilson Ramos”:/players/wilson-ramos-10289?” nonsense, remember my literally-just-spoken single year rant. Ramos isn’t far behind, but he’s not the best catcher or anywhere near it.) Playing in Dodger Stadium can mask how good Grandal actually is, but this guy is near elite. Excellent power for the position, stellar plate discipline, and a solid surrounding offense.
And he’s turned his season around pretty quietly (up until his three-homer outburst this weekend). I almost hadn’t even noticed that he’d been doing so well, but after that game, his DraftKings price promptly rose to $4,000 and FanDuel to $3,200. Once the luster of that game wears off, though, Grandal should fall back to the low-$3,000s and high-$2,000s, respectively, which will frequently put him in play on days the Dodgers are on the road away from Chavez Ravine. That will start right out of the break with a series in Arizona, a series in Washington, and a series in (hopefully hot and humid) St. Louis.
RISING… AND INTERESTING ENOUGH TO KEEP AN EYE ON
Ji-Man Choi, 1B/OF, Los Angeles Angels
Just as C.J. Cron was starting to heat up and get ridiculously overpriced, he broke his hand and landed on the DL. The Angels called up and replaced him in the lineup with Ji-Man Choi, who, aside from having an 80-grade name, is also a solid hitter. THE BAT pegs him as basically league average with skills across the board that are basically average (sans speed). If he has a weak point, it’s his power, which is maybe a little below average. With a relatively low price and multi-position eligibility, though, he could be an option while hitting sixth for LA away from Angel Stadium. They’ll go to Houston in the week after the All-Star break, and if Choi is still minimum price on FanDuel and around $3,000 on DraftKings (or, ideally, a bit lower), he could be in play.
RISING… AND I’M HAVING NONE OF IT
Michael Fulmer, SP, Detroit Tigers
On the surface, this one seems pretty open-and-shut. Fulmer was a quality pitching prospect coming into the year. He throws 96 with his fastball and boasts both a slider and change-up that flash or sit plus. He has a 2.11 ERA. Better still, after allowing 14 earned runs in his first four starts, he’s allowed just four total earned runs in his subsequent nine starts. Clearly, this is a young guy who took a few starts to get his feet wet and is now ready to become a bona fide major league ace. Or, you know, not.
There’s no doubt that Fulmer’s stuff is great, but pitching is about more than stuff. His 8.5 K/9 rate is certainly real (maybe even slightly low), but a 3.2 BB/9 and 4.04 SIERA means that Fulmer has actually been a pretty average pitcher. And that, of course, does not make him a $10,000 pitcher, as he’s (roughly) been on DraftKings for his past five starts. (His price on FanDuel has risen to $8,800, which is also much too high.) Outside of an elite matchup, where his price would surely go even higher, there’s almost no scenario where you can consider rostering Fulmer right now. If anything, you can play hitters against him on DraftKings given their dynamic pricing and inevitably underpriced hitters. The Tigers will get the Royals and Twins at home coming out of the All-Star Break, which could both have some sneaky plays, and then they’ll go into U.S. Cellular and Fenway, where Fulmer could really struggle.