RotoGrinders Matchup of the Week: Week 3

by RotoGrinders Last Updated 2017-09-24 01:53:22

Welcome to the RotoGrinders Matchup of the Week! Each week, this piece will pull out one matchup that stands out to us on the weekend’s slate.

Below, you will find JMToWin’s writeup of this game from his NFL Edge – the most in-depth, DFS-specific piece in the industry, in which every game is broken down from top to bottom in a DFS-specific manner – and you will also find assorted thoughts from some of the other, top minds in Daily Fantasy Sports.

JMToWin’s NFL Edge

Bengals at Packers

Vegas-Implied Total: Packers 26.75, Bengals 17.75

KEY MATCHUPS:

Packers Run D – 14th DVOA / 14th Yards allowed per carry
Bengals Run O – 13th DVOA / 23rd Yards per carry

Packers Pass D – 23rd DVOA / 32nd Yards allowed per pass attempt
Bengals Pass O – 11th DVOA / 10th Yards per pass attempt

Bengals Run D – 20th DVOA / 23rd Yards allowed per carry
Packers Run O – 5th DVOA / 7th Yards per carry

Bengals Pass D – 14th DVOA / 5th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Packers Pass O – 7th DVOA / 16th Yards per pass attempt

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I wonder if we’ll end up seeing so much industry hype on A.J. Green this weekend that he actually turns into a chalky play. Looking at his game logs and the play of Andy Dalton so far, that might seem crazy, but Green is one of the most talented wide receivers in the NFL, taking on a Packers unit that ranked 23rd in DVOA and 32nd in yards allowed per pass attempt last year. After their miserable Thursday night loss, the Bengals fired Ken Zampese – and reports indicate that a large part of the reason for Zampese getting canned was “player mutiny.” This leads to a likely-accurate assumption that Bill Lazor will be tasked with two things right away: 1) Getting A.J. Green more involved, and 2) Getting more touches for Joe Mixon, at the expense of Jeremy Hill.

The one concern with A.J. Green is that the Bengals’ offensive line has not looked much better than the Seahawks’ unit, and Dalton is a much better quarterback when he is not dealing with pressure. In Week 1, the Packers’ pass rush was able to torpedo the Seahawks’ weekend by getting constant pressure on Russell Wilson, and there is a legitimate chance they will be able to do the same thing to Dalton this week (though the outlook for Dalton is improved if Mike Daniels cannot suit up for Green Bay).

With that said: it’s tough to get away from AJG as a tourney play – especially on FanDuel, where his price is just silly. This is a guy who has seen 18 targets through two games against two of the best pass defenses in the NFL, and is now set up to see a good 12 targets in a shootout against a poor secondary. The poor offensive line play of the Bengals and the correspondingly poor play of Dalton likely takes Green off the table for me in cash games, but he has a shot at being a tourney beast this weekend.

Further adding to the pile of positives for Green is the lack of viable weapons elsewhere on the Bengals. Tyler Eifert is playing hurt once again, Tyler Boyd was a healthy scratch last week, John Ross is not yet ready to contribute, and Brandon LaFell is only DFS-relevant when he trips and falls into a long touchdown.

The backfield on the Bengals is best left alone, though I can see a case for putting Mixon on 5% of your tourney teams if you are building a ton of rosters, as he is a guy who could easily notch 20 points if the Bengals surprise the Packers with a Mixon-heavy game plan. Marvin Lewis said to reporters after Week 1 that Mixon is “way better than I expected,” and Jeremy Hill looks cooked. We cannot risk too much of our weekly investment here, but it will not surprise me if Mixon comes out as the lead back this week.

In 2016, the Bengals’ long-vaunted defense began to slip, with a 14th DVOA ranking against the pass and a 20th DVOA ranking against the run. I put a little less stock in their pass defense DVOA ranking, as this Bengals defense is built around limiting big plays – which still lowers upside against them in DFS – though that’s not enough to pull me off of Aaron Rodgers at home (Rodgers is awesome on the road – but, unsurprisingly, he’s even better at home). As always, Rodgers is the likeliest player in the NFL to account for his team’s touchdowns – as he accounted for 44 of the Packers’ 51 scores last year. He’s an elite play this week, regardless of what weapons are healthy.

Jordy Nelson practiced “in full” on Wednesday, but is still being called 50/50 to suit up. Randall Cobb is expected to play, but he did not practice Wednesday. Cincy’s defense is built around their efforts to push targets to the middle of the field – allowing slot receivers and tight ends to beat up on them more than perimeter receivers do. This leaves Cobb as the highest-floor play if he suits up, though his ceiling is capped with the routes he runs out of the slot. Davante Adams becomes an elite tourney play if either Cobb or Jordy misses, while Geronimo Allison will step into low-opportunity upside (i.e., tourney-viable territory) if this is the case. If all three guys are healthy, Jordy and Davante are also viable in tourneys. I’m not too worried about the matchup here; as long as Rodgers is on the field and the opposing defense is non-elite, I’ll have interest all over.

Ty Montgomery smashed in a smash spot last week, at (rightfully) massive ownership. This spot is a little less elite, as the Bengals were middle of the pack last year defending running backs out of the backfield, and Montgomery’s yardage upside is capped even against below-average run defenses; basically, we roster him more for his pass game involvement and his scoring potential than for his chances of posting a huge game on the ground. Nevertheless, he retains one of the largest snap shares in the NFL after playing 74 snaps in Week 1 and 65 snaps in Week 2 – good for 87% of the Packers’ total plays. He is no longer underpriced, but he is still a fair value this week.

Finally, Martellus Bennet is a guy who will likely go overlooked after his abysmal start to the year (only eight catches for 90 yards on 17 targets), but the Bengals are attackable with tight ends. Last year, they allowed the most targets and the third-most catches to the position. Ertz, Kelce, Gronk (if healthy), Reed (if healthy), and even Jack Doyle are better on-paper plays than Martellus, given his iffy chemistry with Rodgers so far, but I do like Martellus for his upside in a Rodgers-quarterbacked offense, in a good tight end matchup.

Guys I like in cash games: Aaron Rodgers, Ty Montgomery, Randall Cobb (if healthy)

Guys I like in tourneys: All of the above, plus: A.J. Green, Joe Mixon, Davante Adams, Jordy Nelson (if healthy), Geronimo Allison (if Jordy or Cobb miss)

What Our Experts Are Saying (NFL Premium)

Below you will find a couple of teasers from our Premium selections. We have a lot of content available for subscribers each week, including Consensus Value Rankings, in-depth slate writeups, cheat sheets, positional spotlights, and much more.

DraftKings NFL Reid Option

Ty Montgomery vs CIN ($6900 DK, $7200 FD, $13000 FDraft) – Stronger than an ox on ‘roids and more elusive than the meaning of life, TyMont’s talent is the cherry on top of a cake matchup; the Pack are a 9-point home favorite against the toothless Bengals and carry a 26.8-point implied team total, the third-highest of the week. Through two weeks TyMont has seen the field on 88% of Green Bay’s offensive snaps and received 39 touches, while Cinci has allowed 325 rushing yards to the likes of Baltimore and Houston. He’s the biggest lock since … uh … Ty Montgomery in Week 2.

AJ Green @ GB ($8100 DK, $7500 FD, $15300 FDraft) – AJG’s price on FanDuel is ridiculously low for a true WR1 with 18 targets and 213 air yards (6th in the NFL) through two games. New Bengals OC Bill Lazor rates to improve Cinci’s outlook from a passing game perspective and natural positive regression is on the horizon as well, likely as soon as this week against Green Bay’s weak secondary. The Packers appear to be one of the slate’s strongest stacks and bringing it back with AJG is a strong game-stacking move in tournaments, especially if Tyler Eifert – Green’s main Red Zone competition – can’t give it a go.

Davis Mattek’s Automattek Absolutes

Ty Montgomery

Unlike Bell, Montgomery is an all-caps LOCK on both DraftKings and Fanduel. Now that David Johnson is likely out for the year, Montgomery is the 2nd best running back in fantasy football and has a commanding lead of his team’s usage. The Packers have run 142 plays and Montgomery has been involved in 40 of those plays (28% market share of the teams total offense). Backup Jamaal Williams has only 5 interactions through 2 games. Montgomery has 139 snaps played which is 16 more than any other team in football. He is simply the best possible combination of usage, playing time and efficiency on the board.

The Packers are a home favorite this week to the terrible Bengals, currently listed as 8.5 favorites. Running backs generally always do well in this scenario, especially when they have a monopoly of goalline work (three goalline touchdowns for Montgomery through 2 games, including one reception) and if forced to bet, I would assume the Packers cover and then some. It’s the easiest thing you have to do this week; click the green plus next to Montgomery and move on.

Davante Adams

Jordy Nelson is being listed as “50-50” to play against the Bengals this Sunday and Randall Cobb is listed as day to day. If both of them end up playing, then Adams is merely a secondary or GPP target but nothing near a core play. Even in a game that the Packers are big favorites, they will still come out passing in the first half (even in big wins, Rodgers still makes sure to get his pass attempts off). As of Wednesday, it is too close to call with Nelson’s health but the bottom line is clear: Adams is underpriced if Nelson doesn’t play and fairly priced if he does.

In games that Nelson has not played, Adams receives 1.2 more targets per game (though this includes Adams’ terrible 2015 so his rate statistics are terrible in this split). The Packers offense overall is worse without Nelson but the volume upgrade for Adams will make him a play.

Green Bay Packers DST

I 100% will be playing the Packers defense on both sites unless something dramatic happens to change my lineup construction by Sunday morning. The Bengals offense has not scored a touchdown; nay, they have NOT BEEN INSIDE THE OPPONENTS FIVE-YARD LINE. New offensive coordinator or not, a team that has more interceptions than scoring possessions is going on the road to Lambeau. That is not going to end well for them.