Saturday NFL Wild Card Betting Picks for Titans at Patriots
Tom Brady and the New England Patriots threw the AFC’s no. 2 seed away in Week 17 as the Miami Dolphins — 16-point underdogs — upset the defending Super Bowl winners in Foxborough. The loss leaves the AFC East champions bye-less for the first time since 2009. Without the brief break New England has become accustomed to, the Patriots are set to face the Tennessee Titans in an AFC Wild Card game on Saturday.
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NFL Wild Card Betting Odds — Titans at Patriots
59% of bets are on the New England Patriots, and 63% of bets are on the Over as of Thursday night, per VegasInsider.
NFL Super Bowl 2020 Odds
| Team | Odds | Sportsbook |
|---|---|---|
| Patriots | +1200 | FanDuel |
| Titans | +5000 | DraftKings |
AFC Championship Odds
| Team | Odds | Sportsbook |
|---|---|---|
| Patriots | +650 | Points Bet |
| Titans | +3000 | William Hill |
NFL Wild Card Betting Picks — Titans at Patriots
Is the Patriots dynasty nearing its end? That’s how it appears if you’ve seen the Patriots offense the last half of the season. There were concerns before the Patriots slipped up against the Dolphins. After starting the season 8-1, New England lost three of their final five games. Before facing the Bengals in Week 15, the Patriots were on a two-game losing streak and had failed to score more than 16 points in three of four games.
Despite their struggles, the Patriots enter Wild Card Weekend with the second-highest implied team total of the eight teams competing Saturday and Sunday. They also have a favorable matchup against a Tennessee Titans defense that ranks 21st in DVOA against the pass. The Titans are 10th DVOA against the run, and 16th overall.
This would be encouraging news if the Patriots didn’t look pathetic against one of the worst defenses in the league less than a week ago. To add to their troubles, the Titans bring with them the 2019 regular season rushing title and a quarterback possessing highest passer rating in the NFL.
If it weren’t for the realization that the Titans needed to move on from second overall pick, Marcus Mariota, in favor of former Miami Dolphins starter Ryan Tannehill, the Titans likely be on their couches rather than preparing for the postseason. Since starting the season a dismal 2-4, which included a 20-7 loss to Jacksonville and a 16-0 loss to Denver, the Tannehill-inspired offense has helped Tennessee win seven of their final 10 games. The December AFC offensive player of the month’s league-ldeading passer rating (117.5) is 18 spots and nearly 20 points higher than Brady himself.
In fairness, Derrick Henry ‘s 1,540 rushing yards (102.7 per game) has forced defenders in the box, making Tannehill’s job a bit easier. Wide receiver A.J. Brown has been sensational, placing himself squarely in the Rookie of the Year race while averaging 20.2 yards per reception — the second-highest mark in the NFL. The Ole Miss product is the only receiver in NFL history to have 1,000+ receiving yards on less than 94 targets. Again — he’s only a rookie.
Though Tannehill has exceeded expectations since taking over the Titans’ starting quarterback duties, it’s worth noting that this is Tannehill’s NFL playoff debut. Could you think of a more difficult setting for a first-time playoff appearance? The inexperience could be a factor Saturday night, but then again, Tannehill is a 31-year-old veteran. He just hasn’t been on a team good enough to showcase his talents in January.
I should probably know better than to bet against Brady and Bill Belichick by now, and especially in the playoffs. This isn’t the same Brady we’ve grown up watching, though. Brady has career-lows in a handful of passing stats, and his weapons are limited at best. You may look back and think the Patriots can resemble the team that started the season with eight wins, but even that is less impressive than it seemed at the time. In those eight games, the Patriots beat only one playoff team. Overall, New England is a measly 3-3 against playoff teams, with two of those wins coming against the Buffalo Bills and the other win against the wounded Philadelphia Eagles.
There’s little to like about the Patriots other than the historic playoff dominance from Belichick and Brady. If truth be told, I hope the Patriots dominate the Titans so that I can load up on the Chiefs against the Patriots at a smaller spread in the divisional round. Unfortunately, I think this is more likely to stay close, so I’ll have a small play on Titans +5.
NFL Wild Card Betting Pick: Titans +5
NFL Wild Card Round — Titans at Patriots Player Props
Player Props to be posted as made available.
NFL Wild Card Player Props at Monkey Night Fight
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Here are my favorite Monkey Knife Fight picks for the AFC Wild Card game:
Ryan Tannehill +29.5 Passing Yards (vs. Tom Brady)
Julian Edelman -1.5 Receptions (vs. James White)
- Derrick Henry -28.5 Rushing Yards (vs. Sony Michel)
Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images