NFL Wild Card Lines & Betting Picks at Online Sportsbooks

by Matt Schmitto (schmitto) Last Updated 2021-01-11 01:02:52

We made it. The regular season is over and the NFL playoffs are here, kicking off with a Wild Card Weekend unlike we’ve ever seen.

Beginning with six wild-card games this weekend, the 2020-2021 playoffs will include a total of 14 teams, leaving only the top seed from each conference with a first-round bye. Previously, the 1- & 2-seeds were given a bye and there were only two wild-card spots in each conference.

What does the change mean for sports bettors? At least this week, it means we get two additional games to bet. I don’t hear anyone complaining.

While Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers rest up for the divisional round, hungry wild-card visitors like Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson, Philip Rivers, Tom Brady and even Mitch Trubisky will lurk into enemy territory this weekend with aspirations to extend their seasons.

By Sunday night, only eight teams will remain to continue their quest for the Lombardi Trophy, which will ultimately be delivered at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Fla., the site of Super Bowl LV.

With all of that in mind, let’s take a look at NFL odds and Wild Card Weekend betting lines for what should be a wild Saturday and Sunday.

Wild Card Weekend Betting Lines

Saturday Wild Card Picks

Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills

Opening Line: Bills -6.5
Opening Total: O/U 52
Time: Saturday, 1:05 p.m. ET
How to Watch: CBS

Josh Allen did his best to mount an MVP campaign, and while he likely won’t get many votes ahead of Aaron Rodgers, the third-year quarterback did enough to deliver Bills Mafia a home playoff game for the first time since 1996. Bills Stadium won’t be as loud as it would be under normal circumstances, but 6,700 lucky fans will be present.

Entering the wild card round with a little bit of rest and on six-consecutive wins, there may not be a scarier playoff team than the Bills. Even more impressive than their six-game win streak to close out the regular season is the dominance the Bills have shown on both sides of the ball over the last 1.5 months. During a span that includes games against the Steelers and Dolphins, the Bills have won each game by double digits, finishing the season an NFL-best 11-5 against the spread. Safe to say that Bills Mafia doesn’t lack the funding for new tables to break.

What’s sweeter than a 13-3 regular-season record and the return of the NFL Playoffs in Buffalo? Another win and cover against the Indianapolis Colts.

If Buffalo wants to advance, their defense will need to figure out a way to slow down running back Jonathan Taylor. The Colts’ rookie makes his playoff debut one week after breaking the Colts’ single-game rushing record. Of course, those yards came against Jacksonville, but breaking rushing records is never an easy feat, and Taylor has really rounded into form as Indianapolis has given him a larger workload.

[Also read: Best Player Props for Wild Card Weekend]

Wild Card Pick

This isn’t a game I’m jumping to bet on right away, because I am a little worried about how the Bills match up against the Colts. Indianapolis has a top-7 defensive DVOA, while the Bills’ defense has struggled against the run on more than one occasion this season.

If you’re looking for closing line value, however, I think the line will be at least Bills -7 across online sportsbooks by kickoff. The public will likely be all over the hottest team in the league, so if you’re wanting to join Bills Mafia as an honorary betting guest this weekend, I suggest heading to PointsBet as soon as possible to grab the Bills -6.5. If you prefer the Colts, it’s probably wise to be patient and place your bet later this week for the best number.

[Bet on the Bills -6.5 at PointsBet]

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks

Opening Line: Seahawks -4.5
Opening Total: O/U 42.5
Time: Saturday, 4:40 p.m. ET
How to Watch: FOX

After a blistering start through the first five weeks of the season, Russell Wilson’s MVP aspirations began to taper off along with Seattle’s offensive play. Despite a stretch where the Seahawks would lose three-of-four games between weeks 7-10, Seattle would finish the season with a 12-4 record and an NFC West division title.

The Rams tried their best to win the division themselves, but a Week 15 loss to the Jets, followed by a loss to Seattle, would keep the Rams fighting for wild-card ticket in Week 17. To add to their stress, Los Angeles entered Week 17 without their starting quarterback, wide receiver and left tackle. Luckily, their opponents weren’t at full health either. Beating the Cardinals 18-7, the Rams clinched a playoff berth with rookie quarterback John Wolford behind center. Now, as the Rams return to the playoffs two years removed from a Super Bowl appearance, head coach Sean McVay may have to rely on Wolford again.

Saturday Update: Jared Goff remains questionable and is pushing to play, but McVay “has no intention of revealing before kickoff who will start at quarterback,” according to Adam Schefter.

Wild Card Pick

With or without Goff, the Rams will depend on their No. 4-ranked DVOA to fluster Russell Wilson and his receivers, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Wilson isn’t an easy quarterback to fluster, but the Rams seized the opportunity in Week 10 and forced three turnovers from Wilson. The Rams weren’t able to sweep Seattle, but they did hold Russ to only 225 passing yards in Week 16.

Despite Wilson’s struggles against Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey, I will seize the opportunity to lay 4.5 points on Wilson vs. Wolford. Seattle’s defense has looked much better in the latter half of the season and could very well take advantage of Wolford’s inexperience. There’s no better Russ than Playoff Russ. Let’s hope Pete Carroll allows him to cook.

[Bet on the Seahawks -4.5 at BetMGM]

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Football Team

Opening Line: Buccaneers -7.5
Opening Total: O/U 46.5
Time: Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET
How to Watch: NBC

Wild Card Pick

Back in the playoffs, it looks like Brady is the winner of his and Bill Belichick’s offseason “breakup.” Brady’s pre-retirement move to Tampa wasn’t without hiccups, though. They were swept by the Saints, which is why they’re one of three wild card teams in the NFC. Still, an 11-5 record with a new team is no reason for disappointment. Their most impressive performance was a 38-10 win over the Green Bay Packers, who now happen to be the betting favorites in the NFC.

The Bucs might be a wild-card team, but their 11-5 record set them up to play the 7-9 Washington Football Team — probably the cushiest matchup a wild-card has ever had.

The matchup might be cushy but the spread is big and getting bigger. After opening as 7.5-point road favorites, the line stretched to Bucs -8.5 within hours. We’ll likely see public money flood the Bucs side of this game throughout the week but I’m not sure that’s the best idea.

Washington is 5-2 when Alex Smith leads the team in passing this season, and presumptive Defensive Rookie of the Year Chase Young helped them put together the second-ranked defensive DVOA in the league. The Bucs have struggled most against solid pass rushes, which is what Washington has with Young. The Bucs will also be without linebacker Devin White and possibly wide receiver Mike Evans.

I don’t have a good feel for where this line will close, so I’m going to go ahead and grab the Football Team +8.5 at Fanduel.

Tuesday Update: I was a premature arrival to the Football Team party. On Tuesday, you can bet Washington +9 at BetMGM.

Saturday Update: Mike Evans plans to play Saturday night. However, I like betting Under on his player props, especially as a sort of hedge against my original Washington +9 bet. If the Bucs jump out to a comfortable lead, my guess is they proceed with caution and keep Evans’ snaps to a minimum.

Here’s a more in-depth Buccaneers vs. Washington betting preview.

[Bet on Washington +9 at Betmgm]

Sunday Wild Card Picks

Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans

Opening Line: Ravens -3.5
Opening Total: O/U 54.5
Time: Sunday, 1:05 p.m. ET
How to Watch: ABC/ESPN

There’s no time for small talk—let’s get to my favorite pick of Wild Card Weekend before the line moves.

Wild Card Pick

The Ravens were far overvalued at the start of the season, hence being 3.5-point favorites over the Chiefs in Week 3, but now we’re seeing Baltimore undervalued in the betting market. The Ravens have covered five consecutive games since losing to the Steelers in the first weekend of December. Their opponents haven’t been all that impressive, but the Ravens certainly look more like the team we were expecting. Sure, Baltimore will have their hands full with Derrick Henry but I don’t see how the Titans defense keeps Lamar Jackson and J.K. Dobbins from scoring.

Tuesday Update: Down to Ravens -3, this line shortened a half-point on Tuesday at PointsBet but -3.5 remains steady at FanDuel. As always, use our NFL lines comparison tool to find the best price and sportsbook for your wild-card betting picks.

[Bet on the Ravens -3 at PointsBet]

Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints

Opening Line: Saints -9.5
Opening Total: O/U 47.5
Time: Sunday, 4:40 p.m. ET
How to Watch: CBS

Wild Card Pick

Alvin Kamara and Micheal Thomas are active (updated), but it’s not like Drew Brees is anyone to be scared of these days. Meanwhile, the other quarterback in this game is Mitch Trubisky. This might be in a dome, but these are two of the better defenses in the NFL. Give me the Under all day.

[Bet Under 48 Points at PointsBet]

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers

Opening Line: Steelers -3.5
Opening Total: O/U 47.5
Time: Sunday, 8:15 p.m. ET
How to Watch: NBC

Wild Card Pick

I’m not sold on either of these teams, but I have a feeling most bettors will take the Steelers after they gave the Browns all they could handle while sitting Ben Roethlisberger and other starters. In fact, that’s what it looks like is happening early as the line has already moved from Steelers -3.5 to Steelers -4.5. I lean towards taking the points and the Browns, but, before I put any money down, I want to hear some good news regarding the Browns corners who were placed on the Reserve/Covid list last week.

Tuesday Update: I was concerned about the Browns covid situation mainly regarding their secondary, but it turns out I should’ve been concerned about much more. It was announced Tuesday that Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski tested positive for covid-19 and won’t be coaching this weekend. Additionally, the Browns will also be without offensive lineman Joel Bitonio and receiver KhaDarel Hodge for the same reason. To add to the Browns’ troubles, their practice facility has been shut down to do the outbreak. As a result, oddsmakers quickly moved this line to Steelers -5.5, and it has since stretched to -6 at most sportsbooks as of Tuesday afternoon. I wouldn’t be surprised if this one moves even further away from the Browns. Pittsburgh -7 or -7.5 by kickoff is definitely in the range of possible outcomes. If you like the Steelers, I suggest betting it ASAP. If you’re sticking with the Browns, wait for +7.

Sunday Update: This spread has come back down to Browns +5.5. Despite all of the impediments, I’m taking the points.

[Bet on Browns +5.5. at Betmgm]

NFL Wild Card Weekend Betting Card

Check back for more NFL betting tips for Wild Card Weekend.

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