Stat Factors: Week 5
NFL Advanced Data is more accessible than ever, and with the power of providers like Sports Info Solutions and PlayerProfiler.com, RotoGrinders is here to bring them to your doorstep. Each week, Stat Factors will compare 99 team level metrics and hundreds more advanced player level analytics to bring you five key “Stat Factors” that matter for each game. We’ll then break them down and teach you how to empower your decision making for the week using these factors. The best DFS players in the world supplement their process with sports analytics, and we’re here to help you enhance your week of research.
Week 5
Atlanta Falcons vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Atlanta Falcons Skewed Matchups of Note
Top 5 WR Fantasy Points Allowed Matchup
Top 5 QB Fantasy Points Allowed Matchup
Top 10 Explosive Pass Matchup
Bottom 5 RB Fantasy Points Allowed Matchup
Bottom 10 RB Target % Matchup
Bottom 10 Pass Behind Line % Matchup
Has any defense faced a tougher pass schedule than the Steelers D? No, at least not according to SharpFootballStats.com. The Browns, Chiefs, Buccaneers, and Ravens are all good passing offenses despite what you may think of Tyrod Taylor, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Joe Flacco. Supporting cast matters and these teams all have solid passing game weapons. The Falcons are no different.
The Steelers enter this game with a 19th ranked DVOA defense and 20th graded PFF unit. As noted, this comes against the second toughest schedule of opposing defenses. The Falcons have the 7th rated DVOA offense and 10th graded PFF unit. This comes against the 10th easiest schedule of opposing defenses. It’s a fair fight in terms of the Falcons offense vs. the Steelers defense.
Julio Jones is the poster boy for TD regression with a 52% team share of air yards and 3 TDS in 21 games. With the Steelers having allowed 18 plays of 20+ in the passing game so far, this is where I am going to hang my hat. Julio is scoring this week and it might happen on a deep ball. He might accidentally get matched up with Cameron Sutton or Coty Sensabaugh and go wild. Let’s be honest though: he can smash Joe Haden too. Just keep playing Julio and tune out the noise.
The Steelers are a bottom 5 matchup for RB fantasy points, and the Falcons come limping in with a recovering Devonta Freeman and questionable Tevin Coleman. With targets likely to continue flowing to the WR and TE groups, and not the RBS, we’re not super excited to roster any RB on this team.
You can go ahead and continue to ride the Calvin Ridley Hype train, but Mohamed Sanu is cheaper and actually owns the bigger role in the offense despite Ridley’s performance. Ridley has well above a non-zero chance to produce here, but at the end of the day I want to be on the other side of his overly efficient games until that price comes plummeting down to where it needs to be.
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