Sunday Night Football Picks: Buccaneers vs. Patriots Odds & Predictions
Buccaneers vs. Patriots Odds
| Buccaneers Odds | -6.5 |
| Patriots Odds | +6.5 |
| Over/Under | 49.5 |
| Date | Sunday, Oct 3. |
| Time | 8:20 p.m. |
| TV | NBC |
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the New England Patriots will duel in Week 4 of the young NFL season on Sunday Night Football at Gillette Stadium. In one of the most highly-anticipated regular season games in recent memory, oddsmakers are expecting Tom Brady to emerge victorious in his return to Foxborough, pricing Tampa Bay as a touchdown favorite on the spread.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6.5
After a disappointing 34-24 loss to the Los Angeles Rams in Week 3, the Buccaneers will be looking to reassert their temporarily interrupted dominance tonight against the Patriots. Brady was still excellent in last week’s loss, throwing for 432 yards and scoring two touchdowns. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin turned in solid performances against a tough Los Angeles secondary. Tampa Bay’s biggest issue last Sunday was, understandably, Aaron Donald. Ali Marpet struggled mightily to slow Donald down, which tremendously hurt the Buccaneers ability to run the ball—totaling only 35 yards on the ground on 13 rushing attempts. Expect a better performance from Tampa Bay’s offensive line this week against New England.
As we mentioned in our preview in last week’s game preview, the Rams were simply a poor matchup for the Buccaneers. Head Coach Sean McVay designed a phenomenal gameplan to exploit Tampa Bay’s vulnerable secondary. Despite the Buccaneers’ ferocious defensive line, Matthew Stafford was not sacked until late in the fourth quarter. Tampa Bay’s defense is likely to continue to struggle against teams that get rid of the ball very quickly, such as the Rams. However, a matchup against New England—a team that runs a lot of slow-developing, play-action passes, is one that should allow stars such as Shaquil Barrett, Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, Ndamukong Suh, and Vita Vea to shine. The addition of Richard Sherman should also improve this defense going forward, though it remains to be seen how many snaps Sherman will get in his first game action of 2021 this evening.
New England Patriots +6.5
After Mac Jones was announced as the Week 1 signal caller for New England, we immediately jumped on the bandwagon for him to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, despite the prevailing thought at the time that the award would be Trevor Lawrence’s to lose. We are not shying away from that prediction after Jones threw for three interceptions last week against the New Orleans Saints. Per Pro Football Focus, Jones was under pressure for 18 of his 50 dropbacks last week. Only one of his interceptions was due to poor decision-making by Jones. Additionally, Jones was still excellent from a clean pocked—an indication that he is likely to be just fine against less elite defenses going forward. Unfortunately for the Patriots, this offense has another tough matchup against a tough Tampa Bay defense in Week 4.
Despite losing in Week 3, the Patriots defense once again looked great. Deatrich Wise Jr., Christian Barmore, and Matthew Judon created a lot of pressure on Jameis Winston. Ja’Whaun Bentley solidified a linebacker unit that looks to only be getting better each week. If there is one vulnerability, which could hurt New England this evening, it is a couple of weak members of the secondary. Jonathan Jones and Jalen Mills are going to have a very difficult time slowing down Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Antonio Brown in this contest.
Sunday Night Football Picks
After opening at over/under 51, this line has been bet down to over/under 49.5. Bettors should expect Head Coach Bruce Arians to make a conscious effort to establish some semblance of a running game this evening after gaining only 35 yards on the ground in their Week 3 loss against the Rams. Jones and the Patriots are likely to struggle to put points on the board in this one against a Tampa Bay defense that will be looking to prove that they are better than their performance last week indicates. A lower-scoring affair should be in order at Foxborough in this one.
PICK: Under 49.5 (-110)
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