Super Bowl 59 Sportsbook Boosts: Should You Bet This?
The Super Bowl is the … Super Bowl of sportsbook promotions. Anyone with a sportsbook account is getting bombarded with emails, push notifications, and social media posts from platforms hawking their latest boosts. My brother and I have this running joke that the worst bet you can make is whatever pops up first when you open a sportsbook app.
But come on, this is the last NFL game for a long time. We’re going to fire off some bets. This isn’t about squeezing every ounce of value out of each dollar. We don’t need to guarantee every single wager is +EV. Let’s just try to be strategic about where we get our money down for the big game.
Super Bowl 59 Sportsbook Boosts
I’ve divided each section by sportsbook. If you only use one book, just scroll down to that section. Most of the major books are doing some sort of 1st TD scorer pool, so I grouped those together at the end. Those are some of the most intriguing bets, so I’d make sure to at least skim that section.
When applicable, I’ll be using our ParlayIQ tool to gauge the odds. ParlayIQ uses simulations to estimate the probability of certain outcomes. You can plug in multiple bets and see what the implied win probability would be based on the simulations. ParlayIQ then shows what the sportsbook odds should be based on that info.
FanDuel
FanDuel has an interesting special pairing each moneyline with a top player from each team. It’s a promotion that includes a 50% boost, so make sure to opt in before you bet it.
“Super Bowl Boost”
- Saquon Barkley 100+ rushing yards and Eagles to win (+140)
- Patrick Mahomes 225+ passing yards and Chiefs to win (+145)
- Max Wager: $10
- Requires opt-in
When you tack on the 50% boost, the Philadelphia option moves to +210 and the Kansas City option moves to +218. We’re getting small discounts on the player props, as FanDuel has Barkley’s rushing prop at 109.5 and Mahomes’ passing prop at 250.5. FanDuel currently has the best Eagles ML odds (+102) and the worst Chiefs ML odds (-120).
If you build this parlay yourself instead of clicking the boost, FanDuel gives you +136 for the Eagles side and +141 for the Chiefs side. So we aren’t getting duped with the promo odds. ParlayIQ spits out +334 for Barkley o109.5 rush yards / Eagles ML. It suggests +300 for Mahomes o250.5 pass yards / Chiefs ML. ParlayIQ shows a decent gap compared to the boosted odds of +210 and +218, but it also had to use the standard player prop lines. The boost gives us lower numbers for the Barkley and Mahomes components.
Should You Bet It?: Yes. The value is pretty fair when you include the 50% boost, and the outcomes are realistic. Philly likely needs a big performance from Barkley if they’re going to control time of possession and limit Mahomes’ opportunities. Kansas City has struggled mightily on the ground and will need to rely on Mahomes through the air to win.
How To Bet It: Mahomes/Chiefs and hedge with Eagles ML. If you bet $10 to win $21.80 on the Kansas City side, you can also toss $10 on the Eagles at even money at a different sportsbook. Of course, Kansas City could win and Mahomes could fail to reach 225 passing yards, and you’d lose both bets, but there’s a strong chance at breaking even at worst.
DraftKings
DraftKings is offering a bet match when you wager on a touchdown scorer. The bonus bet you receive following your TD pick is based on the amount of the qualifying bet, with a specified limit. Mine was set at a max of $10, but it could differ based on your account and location. The max bet and ensuring reward will be clearly displayed after opting in.
“Super Bowl LIX Touchdown Bet Match”
- Place a touchdown scorer bet using the Bet and Get token
- Earn a free bet equal to your qualifying bet, regardless of the outcome of your bet
- Max wager/reward will vary
- Requires opt-in
This one is pretty straightforward. It pairs nicely with the FanDuel offer. If you took Mahomes and the Chiefs on FD, you can hedge on DK by using your free bet on the Eagles.
Should You Bet It?: Yes. The reward isn’t overwhelming, but matching 100% of your stake is a solid deal. I’m sure you were already planning on making some TD bets anyways; you might as well get rewarded for it.
How To Bet It: Jalen Hurts has the best combination of price and likelihood. DraftKings has the best price for him right now at -110. Hurts has failed to score a TD just twice in his last 12 complete games (including the playoffs). He scored 2 times when these teams played last season and 3 times when they matched up in Super Bowl 57.
DraftKings also has a robust selection of Taylor Swift-related props. Under “SB LIX Specials,” they have a tab labeled “Swiftie Specials.” They’re basically parlays mashed together with Swift song titles. Most of them are long shots and probably not viable, but there is one with some juice that could make sense.
“Fifteen”
- Patrick Mahomes to have 15+ rush yards & 215+ pass yards (-175)
It’s tough to gauge this one because DraftKings won’t let you parlay those two props, so we can’t see what the odds would be outside of this promotion. The odds for Mahomes 15+ rushing yards are -405. They have 225+ passing yards at -240. FanDuel and BetMGM’s lowest alternate rushing yards line is 25+, so I wasn’t able to make a viable parlay comparison. FanDuel gave me Mahomes 200+ passing yards / 25+ rushing yards at -107.
Should You Bet It?: No. Both props are solid discounts from the standard lines, but the -175 price is too steep.
How To Bet It: If you want to take something related to Mahomes, I’d focus on his rushing props. He’s averaging 5.4 carries across 20 career playoff games, compared to 3.9 attempts in 112 regular season games. FanDuel has 40+ rushing yards at +180.
BetMGM
BetMGM focused on Barkley for their boosts. Under “Super Bowl Player Props,” they have a “Saquon Barkley Specials” section. Most of them are huge long shots, but there are a couple that caught my attention.
“Eagles Career Postseason Rushing Record”
- Barkley to rush for 150+ yards (+230)
Brian Westbrook leads the Eagles in playoff rushing yards at 591. It took him 11 games to get there. Barkley has piled up 442 rushing yards in just 3 postseason games with the team. It’s insane. Speaking of insane…
Should You Bet It?: No. This is an awful price. FanDuel has Barkley 150+ rushing yards at +330 odds.
DraftKings has it at +334 odds. BETMGM THEMSELVES HAS IT AT +250. Just go to Alternate Rushing Yards on the normal player props page, and you’ll see Barkley 150-plus at a better price. Ridiculous.
How To Bet It: DraftKings has the best prices for the Barkley alternate rushing props. They also have the milestones in 10-yard increments all the way up to 200. FanDuel goes 25 yards at a time after 110.
“Playoff Rushing Record”
- Barkley to rush for 169+ yards (+425)
John Riggins has the record for the most rushing yards in a single postseason at 610 in 1982-83. He racked up 185 yards in the Divisional Round against Minnesota, the 6th-most in a playoff game at the time.
Should You Bet It?: No. Again, this is a terrible price. DraftKings has Barkley 170+ rushing yards at +680.
FanDuel has Barkley 175-plus rushing yards at +750. DraftKings has it at +334. BetMGM has 175-plus rushing yards at +475. So for 6 more yards, they’re giving you +475 instead of +425.
How To Bet It: DraftKings has the closer analog (170+ rushing yards), but I’d prefer the 175+ on FanDuel at +750.
Caesars
Caesars has one of the lengthier lists of player prop boosts. The max bet will likely vary, but mine is $100, which is solid. I admittedly don’t use Caesars often because I don’t love their prices or interface, so I’m guessing the max is lower if you’re a frequent bettor over there. I won’t go through every boost, but here are a few of the more reasonable options.
“Back to Back to Back”
- Mahomes over 274.5 passing Yards and over 1.5 passing TDs (+225)
- Max bet will vary
The passing yards aspect is about 25 yards over Mahomes’ standard line. His passing TDs prop is 1.5 at every book, priced around -150. If you build this yourself on Caesars, it gives you +203, so at least it is a legitimate boost. ParlayIQ spits out +233 for Mahomes o252.5 passing yards and o1.5 TDs on Caesars.
Should You Bet It?: Yes. It’s a fair enough boost. FanDuel has Mahomes 275+ passing yards / 2 passing TDs at +182. DraftKings doesn’t let you parlay them.
How To Bet It: IF you bet this, do it on Caesars. I’d rather focus on the individual props though. FanDuel has Mahomes 3-plus TDs at +225. DraftKings has 300-plus passing yards at +278. Those seem like better avenues for targeting a big Mahomes game.
“A.J. Brown Most Receiving Yards”
- Brown to lead all players in receiving yards for the game (+225)
- Max bet will vary
Brown has the highest receiving yards prop at around 70. Caesars and DraftKings are the highest at 71.5, while BetMGM is down at 68.5. BetMGM has the closest gap between Brown and the next-closest player, with just 6 yards separating him from Travis Kelce (62.5).
Should You Bet It?: Yes. Again, it’s a fair enough boost. BetMGM has Brown to lead the game in receiving at +190. Caesars has it at +180 outside of the promotion.
How To Bet It: Brown is who I’d pick for this prop, and Caesars is the best place to bet it with this boost. But how about something spicier? Brown is +800 to lead the playoffs in receiving yards. He’s 109 behind current leader Dyami Brown.
Dallas Goedert is the favorite at -135. He’s 41 yards away from Dyami Brown. If A.J. Brown goes off, it’s likely at the expense of Goedert. Philly is only going to pass so much.
Brown is +352 for 110-plus receiving yards on DraftKings. I like the 8-1 shot on FanDuel.
Super Bowl 59 Touchdown Jackpots
Most of the major sportsbooks have some sort of promotion where you place a qualifying bet that can win you a share of a bigger prize pool. I’m going to run through the details for each of them and give a quick yes or no on whether they’re worth participating in.
FanDuel – $5,000,000 Touchdown Jackpot
- Claim a Touchdown Sweepstakes Token
- Bet at least $0.09 on an Anytime Touchdown Scorer using your token (MUST SELECT THE TOKEN FOR IT TO COUNT)
- If your player scores the first TD, win a share of $2,500,000 in bonus bets split between everyone else who had that player
- If your player scores the last TD, win a share of $2,500,000 in bonus bets split between everyone else who had that player
Should You Bet It?: Yes. It’s a tiny bet requirement and two chances to win.
DraftKings – King of the End Zone
- Opt in to get Qualifying Bet Token
- Bet at least $5 on any prop listed under “TD Scorer” (First TD Scorer, Anytime TD Scorer, 2+ TDs) [MUST SELECT THE TOKEN FOR IT TO COUNT]
- If your player scores the longest touchdown of the game, win a share of $5,000,000 in bonus bets split between everyone else who had that player
- Qualifying Bet can contain up to 3 legs as a Same Game Parlay and all players will qualify as entries into the King of the End Zone promotion
Should You Bet It?: Yes. It’s a small bet requirement, and you can jam 3 players in there if you don’t mind probably losing a $5 parlay.
BetMGM – King of the End Zone
- Opt in to the promotion
- Bet at least $10 on an Anytime Touchdown Scorer (first qualifying bet after opt-in is the one that counts)
- If your player scores the longest touchdown of the game, win a share of $250,000 in bonus bets split between everyone else who had that player
Should You Bet It?: No. It’s just a much worse version of the DraftKings promo.
Caesars – Super Bowl LIX Bonus Bet Bonanza
- Opt in to the promotion
- Bet at least $5 on a Same Game Parlay with minimum odds of +400
- Every qualifying SGP earns 1 entry into the prize drawing, up to 1,000 entries
- Prizes: 5 $59,000 bonus bets, 100 $590 bonus bets, 1,000 $59 bonus bets
- Max of one prize per participant
Should You Bet It?: No. It’s fine, but probably not worth making a bunch of +400 SGPs just for a random drawing.
ESPN BET – Big Game First TD Jackpot
- Opt in to the promotion
- Bet at least $5 on a Player To Score The First Touchdown
- If your player scores the first TD, win a share of $500,000 in bonus bets split between everyone else who had that player
- There is no limit to the number of First Touchdown scorers you can wager on for the promotion
Should You Bet It?: No. It’s just a worse version of the FanDuel promo, and it makes you bet on 1st TD, not just Anytime TD. The no limit on entries is enticing, but it’s probably a trap.
Image Credit: Getty Images