Three MLB Stacks to Target: Friday, July 12th
Stacking has become a common strategy used in tournaments on FanDuel. The concept is simple – roster multiple players from teams with the best MLB odds to score the most runs.
This article will take a closer look at the three teams on FanDuel’s main slate with the highest implied run totals.
New York Yankees (7.1 implied run total)
I’m not entirely sure how or why Aaron Sanchez is pitching the first game for the Toronto Blue Jays post-All-Star Break but I’m excited to take advantage of it. Sanchez has been terrible for the Blue Jays this season due to his inability to keep the opposition off the basepaths – his 13% walk rate nearly matches his 17.9% strikeout rate. Aside from walking a ton of batters, Sanchez is also struggling to generate both swings and misses (8.7 SwStr%) and soft contact (17.9%). None of that is encouraging in general but even less so when facing a lineup as potent as the New York Yankees.
New York won’t have the services of the oft-injured Giancarlo Stanton yet they still have five hitters in their projected lineup with ISO’s north of .200 against right-handed pitching over the last two seasons – and both Gleyber Torres (.193) and Brett Gardner (.187) have shown respectable pop against righties. Even in Stanton’s absence the Yankees remain one of the most powerful offenses in the league and remain a good source of the long ball.
Historically Sanchez has been much worse against left-handed hitters (.332 wOBA vs .284 wOBA) but he has generally been terrible regardless of handedness this season. I have no issue playing righty bats against Sanchez tonight despite his wide career splits.
Colorado Rockies (6.4 implied run total)
The Rockies enter Friday with the second highest implied run total on the slate (6.4) behind just the New York Yankees but are currently projected to be much lower owned. Part of the reason for lower Colorado ownership is respect for Sonny Gray who will be toeing the rubber for the Cincinnati Reds.
Gray has been excellent this season for the Reds with a career-high 27.8% strikeout rate to go along with a solid 3.83 SIERA. Despite Gray’s first-half success, there’s still plenty of concern for any pitcher throwing in Coors, let alone a pitcher that relies heavily on vertical movement for success. Gray’s Sinker (19.6%) and Curveball (23.3%) have accounted for over 40% of his pitch selection this season. While both pitches have been plus-pitches for Gray there’s plenty of evidence they’ll lose some effectiveness in Coors’ elevation which may force Gray to rely more heavily on his Fourseam Fastball which is the only pitch that has been a negative for him this season.
As we learned from his time with the Yankees, a non-effective Sonny Gray is one that can be exploited, especially in favorable hitting environments. Colorado makes for one of the top overall stacks of the night and their high price tags in a perceived tough matchup should lead to a healthy ownership discount.
Houston Astros (6.0 implied run total)
Those itching for some MLB action after a couple of days off due to the All-Star Break returned to a big fat zero from the Houston lineup last night as Lance Lynn shut the Astros down in Arlington racking up 11 strikeouts along the way. It’s safe to say that we shouldn’t expect similar success out of former long-reliever-turned-starter Jessie Chavez on Friday night.
Houston enters Friday’s slate with the third highest implied run total (6.0) as they’ll look to tee-off against Chavez in some of the best hitting conditions of the night (90+ degrees, 10mph winds blowing out). The Astros, who have struggled to stay healthy all season long, are finally almost back to full strength as Carlos Correa remains the only key offensive threat still on the IL. Despite struggling to stay healthy, Houston has remained one of the top offenses this season with the third best wRC+ (113) against right-handed pitching and the ninth best ISO (.193). The insertion of George Springer and Jose Altuve back into the lineup should only lead to those numbers increasing over the second half of the season and both guys can be used as core pieces in four-man Houston stacks.