Three Sneaky Home Run Calls: Monday, August 19th
Nothing accrues more fantasy points than home runs, this we know. But what is even better than rostering a player who goes yard? Rostering a player who goes yard that not a lot of other DFS players have in their lineups. The goal of this article is to find some sneaky home run calls with the help of some of our most useful RotoGrinders tools, such as MLB Weather, PlateIQ, and MLB Ballpark Factors.
HOME RUN CALLS
1) Hunter Renfroe, San Diego Padres
Opposing pitcher: Trevor Bauer
FanDuel price tag: $3,100
FanDuel position: OF
With Trevor Bauer likely to be one of the most popular pitchers on the slate, it is unlikely you see many DFS owners gravitate towards Renfroe. After all, there is all sorts of strikeout risk here too for Renfroe in this matchup against Bauer.
That being said, let’s not pretend there isn’t all sorts of power risk when looking at this from the other side. PlateIQ tells us that Renfroe still has a massive .270 ISO in this split in 306 plate appearances this season. Did you know that, of Renfroe’s 31 home runs this season, 20 of them have come against RHP?
Throw in this huge positive park shift (GABP is a great park for home runs) for Renfroe, and he actually has a great chance at taking Bauer deep tonight if he can put the ball in play. Renfroe will also come with quite a bit of leverage off of inflated Bauer ownership.
2) Renato Nunez, Baltimore Orioles
Opposing pitcher: Jorge Lopez
FanDuel price tag: $3,000
FanDuel position: 3B
Nunez is another guy that shouldn’t garner much attention tonight thanks to a R/R matchup against Jorge Lopez. But just like the aforementioned Renfroe, Nunez absolutely holds his own from a power perspective against RHP. He has a .218 ISO in the split this season, and 16 of his 27 home runs have come against righties.
Lopez is quite simply a below average pitcher. If there is one department you could argue that he does at least decently, it’s that he can get some groundballs versus righties (46.7% GB%). The massive flyball lean for Nunez in this split (45.5% FB%) is going to counteract that. Nunez’s one big weakness against RHP is his strikeouts (25.6% K%), and that is just not Lopez’s forte (20.4% K% in the split).
As you can see from our MLB Weather page, it is going to be pretty hot in Baltimore tonight with maybe a little bit of wind blowing out. So already one of the best hitting parks on the slate just got a little more favorable. With this also being one of the best parks for righty power, Nunez has a subtly great chance to dong tonight at minimal ownership.
3) Cheslor Cuthbert, Kansas City Royals
Opposing pitcher: John Means
FanDuel price tag: $2,500
FanDuel position: C/1B
I had to do a double-take when I saw the numbers in PlateIQ for Cuthbert this season against LHP. A .447 wOBA and .305 ISO?? I know it is a very small sample size (only 63 plate appearances), but good grief man.
Some of that can be attributed to good luck (.395 BABIP), but that batted ball profile (42.2% Hard%, 24.4% LD%, 37.8% FB%) shows that the guy knows what he is doing up there at the plate. And opposing pitcher John Means has a paltry 16.8% K% against righties this season while also allowing a ton of flyballs. Cuthbert also gets those same favorable hitting conditions we just talked about for Nunez.
So while other DFS owners are trying to jam in Soler and Dozier from the Royals (and rightfully so), be sure not to overlook Cuthbert. That $2,500 price tag gives you some huge savings too, while maintaining plenty of upside.
You can follow Andy Means on Twitter @ameansy