Three Sneaky Home Run Calls: Monday, July 1st
Nothing accrues more fantasy points than home runs, this we know. But what is even better than rostering a player who goes yard? Rostering a player who goes yard that not a lot of other DFS players have in their lineups. The goal of this article is to find some sneaky home run calls with the help of some of our most useful RotoGrinders tools, such as MLB Weather, PlateIQ, and MLB Ballpark Factors.
HOME RUN CALLS
1) Joey Gallo, Texas Rangers
Opposing pitcher: Jose Suarez
FanDuel price tag: $4,300
FanDuel position: OF
I am putting Gallo here not because it is EVER sneaky if he hits a home run but instead because he is sitting at a price ($4,300) and a position (outfield) that has the two top overall options on the slate. Let’s see, Christian Yelich at $4,800 in Great American Ball Park against a righty with major platoon splits and Mike Trout at $4,600 in Arlington versus a lefty. Now whom exactly will be selecting Joey Gallo tonight for only a few hundred bucks of savings in a L/L matchup?
As good as those other two guys have it tonight, let’s not forget how much power Gallo still has against lefties. According to PlateIQ, here are his numbers the past two seasons versus LHP.
2018 (172 plate appearances): .350 wOBA, .331 ISO, 50% hard contact, 51.2% flyballs
2019 (67 plate appearances): .456 wOBA, .393 ISO, 51.7% hard contact, 48.3% flyballs
What!?
If Yelich and Trout are just ‘okay’ tonight, and Gallo hits a three-run bomb and a double at like one/fifth of their ownership, that is a great way to vault up leaderboards in those large-field tournaments on small slates like this.
2) Hunter Renfroe, San Diego Padres
Opposing pitcher: Jeff Samardzija
FanDuel price tag: $3,200
FanDuel position: OF
Renfroe has been out of the starting lineup since Wednesday thanks to an illness, but he did finally make a pinch-hit appearance in yesterday’s game. So that should make us feel good about him returning to the lineup tonight. That multi-game absence compared with the R/R matchup in a pitchers park (with Arlington and Great American Ball Park games on the slate) should make him fly under the radar tonight, even on a five-game slate.
I think opposing pitcher Jeff Samardzija is outperforming his peripherals a bit this season against righties. In 170 plate appearances against them, he has allowed 44.1% hard contact, 22.8% line drives, and 39.4% flyballs. In spite of those numbers, he has ‘only’ allowed a .307 wOBA and .164 ISO. If he keeps that batted ball profile up, I think things are only going to get worse for him.
And Renfroe himself has plenty of pop against RHP. Since the start of last season, he has posted a .289 ISO in the split in 476 plate appearances. Even though Petco Park is a pitchers park, it plays where more friendly for right-handed power than it does left-handed power according to the RotoGrinders Ballpark Factors.
Renfroe has a great mid tier price tag on FanDuel tonight and a matchup that is ripe for a home run.
3) Renato Nunez, Baltimore Orioles
Opposing pitcher: Ryan Yarbrough (projected long-man)
FanDuel price tag: $2,900
FanDuel position: 3B
Assuming Nunez is back in the lineup tonight after sitting out yesterday, we should have a ton of interest in a projected clean-up hitter for under $3,000.
Is it a bad park shift for Nunez? Absolutely, but Tropicana Field plays close to average for right-handed power according to our Ballpark Factors. He should get at least a couple of at-bats against the projected long-man for the Rays, Ryan Yarbrough, and Nunez has been an absolute beast against LHP this season. In 113 plate appearances, he has posted a .378 wOBA and .288 ISO on 39.5% hard hits and 43.4% flyballs. It is very rare to get good numbers like that for a guy that is priced like this.
While the majority of DFS owners will likely pay only $300 more for a guy like Eugenio Suarez in GABP, it makes a ton of sense to go down a little bit for a guy with similar power at far less ownership. Nunez is that guy.
You can follow Andy Means on Twitter @ameansy