Three Sneaky Home Run Calls: Monday, June 10th
Nothing accrues more fantasy points than home runs, this we know. But what is even better than rostering a player who goes yard? Rostering a player who goes yard that not a lot of other DFS players have in their lineups. The goal of this article is to find some sneaky home run calls with the help of some of our most useful RotoGrinders tools, such as MLB Weather, PlateIQ, and MLB Ballpark Factors.
HOME RUN CALLS
1) Rhys Hoskins, Philadelphia Phillies
Opposing pitcher: Taylor Clarke
FanDuel price tag: $4,100
FanDuel position: C/1B
Picking a guy like Rhys Hoskins to hit a homerun isn’t exactly sneaky by its literal definition, but it is when you factor in what his ownership should be tonight. On a slate with Coors Field, the Yankees at home against Jason Vargas, and the Nationals getting a positive league shift against Odrisamer Despaigne, it is unlikely many want to spend $4,100 for Rhys in a R/R matchup.
We don’t know too much yet about Clarke as a pitcher since he has only thrown 22 big league innings. What little we have seen is that he is pretty decent against righties, but nowhere near anything that would want us to be avoiding a hitter as good as Rhys.
Hoskins has destroyed RHP the past two seasons. Check out these numbers in that split, per PlateIQ.
2018 (506 plate appearances): .385 wOBA, .287 ISO
2019 (207 plate appearances): .370 wOBA, .229 ISO
If you look at the RotoGrinders Ballpark Factors (linked above), you see that Citizens Bank Park is an elite park for right-handed power. Throw in 5-10 MPH winds blowing out to left field (per the RG Weather page), and I see it as very likely that Rhys takes Clarke deep tonight.
2) Michael Conforto, New York Mets
Opposing pitcher: Masahiro Tanaka
FanDuel price tag: $3,700
FanDuel position: OF
Tanaka has always been susceptible to the long ball, and Conforto is getting a huge park shift in his favor going into Yankee Stadium to attack that short porch in right field.
For the reputation that Tanaka carries, he honestly hasn’t been all that good this season. And that is especially so against lefties. In 144 plate appearances against them, he has allowed a .361 wOBA and .224 ISO while only striking them out an 18.8% rate. He does get decent groundballs (46.5%), but that matters little up considering Conforto leans so heavily towards line drives and flyballs (31.5% groundballs, 30.4% line drives, 38% flyballs).
That batted ball profile for Conforto (mixed in with his 37.6% hard contact) has led to a .413 wOBA and .273 ISO against RHP this season. With how much hard contact Tanaka has been giving up (38.2% to righties this season to be exact), I feel good about Conforto depositing one in the seats tonight. With a litany of other outfield options in this price range on FanDuel, ownership should be extremely low on Conforto tonight too.
3) Maikel Franco, Philadelphia Phillies
Opposing pitcher: Taylor Clarke
FanDuel price tag: $2,600
FanDuel position: 3B
A lot of what I said up above about Rhys applies here to Franco when it comes to the ballpark and weather. The main reason I am pointing out Franco here is that he is one of the few third basemen on FanDuel tonight that is under $3,000 that can come anywhere close to matching the upside of some of the other options at this loaded position.
With names like Arenado ($4,800), Bryant ($4,600), Rendon ($4,400), Carpenter ($3,400), Turner ($3,100), and Donaldson ($3,000) on this slate , going extremely cheap at third base should automatically make your roster construction a little unique. And with Franco at home and likely hitting 8th, that should keep DFS owners even further away.
But the guy does have a .213 ISO against RHP in 172 plate appearances this season. You just aren’t going to get power like that very often at this kind of price tag. And if you want to fit in Chris Sale tonight, you are going to have to save somewhere. It is highly unlikely that many are going to choose third base for that with all of those other names being available. As a result, I love Franco as a cheap one-off or as part of a Phillies wraparound stack.
You can follow Andy Means on Twitter @ameansy