Three Sneaky Home Run Calls: Monday, May 20th
Nothing accrues more fantasy points than home runs, this we know. But what is even better than rostering a player who goes yard? Rostering a player who goes yard that not a lot of other DFS players have in their lineups. The goal of this article is to find some sneaky home run calls with the help of some of our most useful RotoGrinders tools, such as MLB Weather, PlateIQ, and MLB Ballpark Factors.
HOME RUN CALLS
1) C.J. Cron, Minnesota Twins
Opposing pitcher: Felix Pena (expected to be long-man for Angels)
FanDuel price tag: $3,800
FanDuel position: C/1B
Two teams playing in Arlington and the Yankees (against Baltimore) and Astros (against the White Sox) against weak pitching staffs will make the Twins go overlooked in general on this eight-game slate tonight. A $3,800 first baseman without the platoon advantage that no one could even pick out of a crowd might be the most overlooked of them all.
Nonetheless, Cron has posted good power against RHP since the start of 2018 with his .229 ISO (second best in the split for this Twins projected lineup). While expected long-man Felix Pena has been pretty good against righties, he is still giving up about 38% hard contact against them according to PlateIQ.
Perhaps the most important thing to note here though is that, according to our weather page, it appears we have a 10 MPH wind blowing straight out to center field. With Angel Stadium already being an above average home run park, this is going to help all of the bats here tonight. Not just Cron.
2) Ronald Guzman, Texas Rangers
Opposing pitcher: Mike Leake
FanDuel price tag: $2,900
FanDuel position: C/1B
You are never being too sneaky rostering a guy in Arlington on a team with an implied run total that is over 6.0. However, on FanDuel, we can only roster four hitters from one team, so you are almost always going to get lower ownership on guys at the bottom of the order. Once DFS owners prioritize the likes of Joey Gallo and all of the other Ranger lefties (Choo, Calhoun, Mazara, Odor, etc.), Guzman is going to be on the outside looking in.
Guzman is almost like Gallo Lite in that he hits for a lot of power (nowhere near as much as Gallo) but strikes out a ton (again, nowhere near as much as Gallo). So, just like with Gallo, we love rostering hitters like this versus pitchers that can’t miss bats. Since the start of 2018, opposing pitcher Mike Leake has only struck out 14.3% of the lefties he has faced. That has me concentrating way more at Guzman’s .218 ISO against RHP in that timeframe as opposed to his 28.9% K%.
And if for some reason Guzman isn’t able to spring a Leake in Mike, the Mariners just so happen to have the league’s worst bullpen (sorted by xFIP) according to our Premium Leaderboards in PlateIQ. Guzman has as good of chance of hitting one deep tonight as anyone on the Rangers not named Gallo. And he will also probably be the second or third lowest owned guy on the team.
3) Trey Mancini, Baltimore Orioles
Opposing pitcher: J.A. Happ
FanDuel price tag: $3,700
FanDuel position: OF
This is one of the sneakiest best parks for righty home runs according to our Ballpark Factors, and we have a matchup here between two players trending in the opposite directions.
Mancini vs. LHP, 2018 (188 plate appearances): .288 wOBA, .139 ISO, 16.5% line drives, 16.5% flyballs, 22% hard contact
Mancini vs. LHP, 2019 (50 plate appearances): .482 wOBA, .333 ISO, 37.1% line drives, 34.3% flyballs, 54.3% hard contact
(2018 Mancini = yikes!)
Happ vs. righties, 2018 (590 plate appearances): .314 wOBA, .186 ISO, 26.4% K%, 32.7% hard contact
Happ vs. righties, 2019 (151 plate appearances): .344 wOBA, .262 ISO, 19.9% K%, 41.4% hard contact
We can talk small sample size all we want, but those are some pretty telling trends. Even if we think both guys ultimately land somewhere in the middle, Mancini still has a great shot at taking Happ deep tonight based on his own power, the park, and the great hitting weather tonight (should be in the high 80’s and low 70’s during the game according to our MLB Weather page).
With so many other appealing targets at this position and general price range on FanDuel, Mancini will be a forgotten man tonight. However, I think he takes Happ deep in his first at-bat tonight.
You can follow Andy Means on Twitter @ameansy