Three Sneaky Home Run Calls: Monday, September 23rd
Nothing accrues more fantasy points than home runs, this we know. But what is even better than rostering a player who goes yard? Rostering a player who goes yard that not a lot of other DFS players have in their lineups. The goal of this article is to find some sneaky home run calls with the help of some of our most useful RotoGrinders tools, such as MLB Weather, PlateIQ, and MLB Ballpark Factors.
HOME RUN CALLS
1) Todd Frazier, New York Mets
Opposing pitcher: Caleb Smith
FanDuel price tag: $2,900
FanDuel position: 3B
It is really anyone’s guess as to who garners the most attention at third base tonight; the fact of the matter is that there just aren’t that many appealing options at this position on a tiny five-game slate. The hope there though is that Frazier flies under the radar a bit due to this game taking place in such an elite pitchers park.
After a rough 2018 (.243 wOBA and .108 ISO in 129 plate appearances versus LHP), Frazier has rebounded to look more like himself in 2019. In 130 plate appearances in the split this season, he has posted a .379 wOBA and .267 ISO.
There is usually some elevated risk taking such a big flyball hitter like Frazier and pitting him against a flyball pitcher like Smith; it is much more likely that you get a bunch of infield pop-ups or fly-outs. On the flip side, it is far more likely that he is able to take Smith deep if he puts the barrel on the ball.
Those are the risks we are willing to take when we are home-run-hunting, especially when a guy is below $3,000 on FanDuel. Besides perhaps Anthony Rendon, Frazier is one of the likeliest third basemen to go yard tonight. And you will get him at a fraction of the cost.
2) Tommy Edman, St. Louis Cardinals
Opposing pitcher: Alex Young
FanDuel price tag: $3,000
FanDuel position: 3B
Edman is another third basemen in the same price range as Frazier that I think has a good chance of hitting one out tonight. And he might even go overlooked in Cardinals stacks (despite likely hitting second) with the masses flocking toward the affordable price tags of Fowler, Goldy, Ozuna, and DeJong.
Edman has actually shown a decent amount of pop in the 84 plate appearances against LHP this season, posting a .241 ISO on 46% hard hits, 40% flyballs, 88.8 MPH average exit velocity, and 304.2 average air distance. Those numbers are far lower across the board when he has faced RHP.
Opposing pitcher Alex Young has been just about average against righties this season. Despite showing decent ability to induce a bunch of groundballs to that side of the plate (53% GB%), he is still allowing 42.5% hard contact. If Young makes a mistake to him tonight, I think Edman can punish him with a long ball.
3) Justin Smoak, Toronto Blue Jays
Opposing pitcher: Chandler Shepherd
FanDuel price tag: $2,900
FanDuel position: C/1B
Against RHP Chandler Shepherd, we are getting Smoak from his better side of the plate tonight. Check out these splits since the start of 2018, per PlateIQ.
Versus RHP (744 plate appearances): .358 wOBA, .250 ISO, 42.4% hard contact, 45.5% flyballs, 91.3 MPH average exit velocity
Versus LHP (337 plate appearances): .299 wOBA, .126 ISO, 28.1% hard contact, 37.6% flyballs, 87.1 MPH average exit velocity
Quite frankly, it doesn’t get much more clear cut than that. And if you want to narrow the sample down to just this year, it looks like much of the same.
The jury is still out on what we should expect going forward from Shepherd, but there is little doubt he is going to be susceptible to the long ball. Smoak is yet another guy below $3,000 that should give you plenty of power upside tonight.
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