Three Sneaky Home Run Calls: Monday, September 2nd
Nothing accrues more fantasy points than home runs, this we know. But what is even better than rostering a player who goes yard? Rostering a player who goes yard that not a lot of other DFS players have in their lineups. The goal of this article is to find some sneaky home run calls with the help of some of our most useful RotoGrinders tools, such as MLB Weather, PlateIQ, and MLB Ballpark Factors.
HOME RUN CALLS
1) Michael Conforto, New York Mets
Opposing pitcher: Joe Ross
FanDuel price tag: $3,300
FanDuel position: OF
There are a ton of appealing outfielders in the $3,000-$3,900 range on this eight-game Labor Day slate. And since Mets hitters in general usually go overlooked, I am hoping we see that happen with Conforto today despite what I think is a huge mispriced $3,300 salary.
This is quite a big positive park shift for the Mets today. And opposing pitcher Joe Ross has struggled this season in his 109 plate appearances to lefties, allowing 27% line drives, 38% flyballs, and 36.5% hard contact while only posting a 15.6% K% and 16.5% BB%.
The floor/ceiling combo for Conforto is elite here in this matchup. He will make Ross pay if he makes a mistake over the plate (.284 ISO in the split this season), and he’ll take a walk if Ross tries to pitch around him (16% BB% for Conforto versus LHP this season). With McNeil and Nimmo back, my hope is that Conforto sees plenty of pitches to hit today with a deeper lineup. If so, I think he has a great chance to take Ross deep.
2) Jay Bruce, Philadelphia Phillies
Opposing pitcher: Anthony DeSclafani
FanDuel price tag: $2,800
FanDuel position: OF
I really hope we see Bruce in the lineup today (was activated off the IL yesterday and saw a pinch-hit appearance) because there are all sorts of things working in his favor.
For one, these are great hitting conditions in Cincy. We know that GABP is a great hitters park, but there is a bit of a wind blowing out and temperatures in the 80’s according to our MLB Weather page.
And DeSclafani’s splits are well-known at this point. He is basically elite against righties, but that is nowhere near the case against lefties. In 292 plate appearances against lefties this season, he has allowed a .379 wOBA and .254 ISO thanks to 49% flyballs and 45% hard contact.
Bruce himself has a massive .316 ISO against LHP. Sure, there is some strikeout/pop-up risk here in this matchup too, but there is just WAY too much power upside for a $2,800 price tag. Hopefully his long layoff and a spot a little further down the order (if he is in at all) keep his ownership depressed.
3) Matt Adams, Washingtion Nationals
Opposing pitcher: Noah Syndergaard
FanDuel price tag: $2,800
FanDuel position: C/1B
Adams is another guy who may or may not be in the lineup. He would have for sure been in there against a righty a week ago at this time, but the return of Ryan Zimmerman throws a wrench into things.
So if you do see Adams in there today, don’t be afraid to homerun-hunt here at a cheap price tag despite a matchup against Thor. We alluded to it a bit up above when talking about Conforto, but this is a great hitters park. And Thor’s strikeouts fall off drastically against lefties (19.2%), which is the one main drawback for Adams (massive 33.8% K%).
But we don’t really care about the strikeout risk here if we are just searching for home runs. We know that is what Adams does, as 16 of his 53 hits against RHP this season are dongs. Don’t let the name recognition of Thor fool you; Adams has a great chance of taking him deep today. And the best part about it is Adams is only $2,800.
You can follow Andy Means on Twitter @ameansy