Thursday MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Bet Yankees Moneyline (July 29)

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It’s been a wild week of baseball, with stars getting traded left and right and playoff races intensifying. We have had a ton of great MLB betting action to enjoy, and a plethora of opportunities to hit it big on the sportsbooks. And, just as we were riding as high as we have all season—as high as a phallic Jeff Bezos space rocket—we come crashing back to Earth Wednesday.

Things were going so well! My Bets of the Day were 32-19 on the year, and I was confidently cruising into the midweek slate. But then the White Sox let me down against the Royals again, and Zach Plesac made me look like a fool for questioning whether he’s even good. Whatever… it’s just one day, and at least we got one out of three correct—the Athletics walloped Blake Snell and the Padres—because, as I stated yesterday, Snell is no longer a quality pitcher.

Today, our yearly Bets of the Day record stands at 33-21, still a healthy 12 games over .500. We will take it, especially since we are confident that more winning lies on the horizon. The closer we get to the playoffs, the clearer we can see each team’s big picture.

Our big picture? We are continuing to hold our heads high, do our due diligence, and hopefully win some money along the way. Screw Wednesday—it’s the worst day of the week for a reason! Let’s finish off the week strong, and get ourselves to 20 games above .500 by Sunday.

All MLB odds are from BetMGM. All stats are from MLB.com and Baseball Reference.

Thursday MLB Betting Picks — July 29th

New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays

Pitching Matchup: Gerrit Cole vs. Luis Patino
MLB Bet: Yankees -135

The Yankees are rolling—they have won seven of their last 10 games, including their first two of a three-game series in Tampa. They just traded for Joey Gallo, a slugging outfielder who will fit like a glove in the Bronx. And now they get their veteran ace on the mound, against a Rays club that has scored six total runs over its last three games. I swell a sweep!

Cole has been electric this season. He saw a brief dip in production immediately following the sticky baseball crackdown, but he jumped right back into the groove against his former club in Houston on July 10. His numbers in the three starts since then: 20 innings, 4 earned runs, 14 hits, 6 walks, 31 strikeouts.

Screw sticky stuff—Cole might win his first Cy Young with or without a tighter grip. He leads the MLB in strikeouts (166), and sits atop the AL in wins (10), WHIP (0.968), strikeouts per nine innings (12.0), and complete games (2). He’s only walked 26 of the 487 batters he has faced.

Good luck, Luis Patino. The second-year righty from Columbia will make just his seventh career start Thursday, and he will be crossing his fingers that the day ends better than his last three outings. Patino has surrendered 13 runs in those three starts, while allowing a whopping 24 baserunners over 14 innings. The 21-year old has a 5.27 ERA and 1.247 WHIP on the season.

I like the Yankees to continue their strong start to the second half Thursday. If you’re gun-shy about the Bombers’ bullpen, take them at -140 in the first five innings. But I have no doubt Cole will lead New York to another victory, especially with the exciting news about Gallo in pinstripes.

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Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals

Pitching Matchup: Carlos Rodon vs. Carlos Hernandez
MLB Bet: White Sox -1.5 (-120)

I mentioned in my column the other day that I’m a stubborn Capricorn. I wasn’t lying. Here I am sticking with the White Sox for a fourth consecutive game against the Royals, despite Kansas City delivering two upsets over the past three days.

Here’s the thing (as Jake from StateFarm would say): Carlos Rodon is probably the only AL pitcher as deserving of the Cy Young right now than the aforementioned Cole. The seven-year vet is 8-4 with a 2.24 ERA, 0.924 WHIP, and 145 strikeouts in 100.2 innings. He has issued just 28 walks. Batters are slashing .180/.251/.288 against him, and striking out 36 percent of the time they face him.

Kansas City has played the White Sox well, but its offense remains limited. The Royals have scored only 10 runs over their last three games, and I don’t love the odds of KC beating that 3.33 runs average Thursday against Rodon. In 11.2 innings against the Royals this season, Rodon has allowed four earned runs on 13 hits with 13 strikeouts. He walked just three Royals in his two consecutive matchups with Kansas City in May.

As if that didn’t paint a murky enough picture for Royals fans, we must also consider the fact that the other Carlos in this game, Carlos Hernandez, has struggled mightily. The second-year pro out of Venezuela bounced around the bullpen with little success earlier this season, before getting the green-light to start games a couple weeks ago. The result? Just 6.2 innings across two starts, with seven earned runs and 11 total baserunners. Hernandez has a 6.04 ERA and 1.659 WHIP on the year.

Take the money and run in this Carlos duel. One guy’s the real deal, while the other has struggled to stay on the field. So what if I’m stubborn—this feels like an easy green.

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Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates

Pitching Matchup: Freddy Peralta vs. Chad Kuhl
MLB Bet: Brewers -0.5 (-120) in the First Five Innings

If the Brewers’ -190 moneyline feels a little too high for your liking, grab their -0.5 run line across the first five innings for a far better value. Milwaukee has been scorching at the plate as of late, scoring at least six runs in four of its last five games. The Brewers have also allowed just eight total runs in their last five games, and now they put their ace on the mound.

Peralta has come into his own in his fourth professional season. A first-time All-Star, the 25-year old Dominican has a 7-3 record, a 2.29 ERA, and an 0.892 WHIP. He has allowed an MLB-lowest 4.0 hits per nine innings, and surrendered just 10 homers in 102 innings. Opponents are batting just .129 against Peralta this season. That’s a tough draw for Kuhl (3-5, 4.38 ERA, 1.362 WHIP, 7.7 SO/9).

Pittsburgh has already established itself as a seller this week, dishing All-Star second baseman Adam Frazier to the Padres ahead of the trade deadline. The Brewers, meanwhile, acquired an All-Star second baseman of their own, grabbing Eduardo Escobar from the D-backs. That perfectly encapsulates these two franchises right now—they are moving in completely opposite directions. Bet the Brewers to beat the Bucs, at least in the first five.

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About the Author

SloanPiva
Sloan Piva (SloanPiva)

Sloan Piva is a veteran of the sports journalism industry, and a freelance sports betting analyst. He received his master’s degree in Professional Writing from the University of Massachusetts, and currently resides in East Bay, Rhode Island with his wife and daughter. He covers the MLB, NFL, NBA, NCAA, and PGA, as well as anything related to fantasy sports and sports betting. Shoot him an email anytime at SloanPiva@gmail.com!