Thursday Night Football Betting Picks: Giants at Patriots

NFL Week 6 kicks off Thursday night as Daniel Jones and the New York Giants take on Tom Brady and the New England Patriots. To no one’s surprise, online sports betting sites don’t have much faith in the Giants. Let’s take a look at the odds, storylines and betting picks for Thursday Night Football.

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Thursday Football Betting Picks — Giants at Patriots -16.5, O/U 41.5

The New York Giants enter Week 6 as shorthanded as they’ve been all season, which is saying a lot considering how depleted their receiving corps was in September. The Patriots were going to be favored by double-digits regardless, but injuries to Sterling Shepard, Evan Engram and Saquon Barkley have made this a 17-point spread at some online sports betting sites.


WR Sterling Shepard Expected to miss multiple week after suffering his second concussion of the season

TE Evan Engram Engram was limited in practice on Tuesday as a result of an MCL sprain. He is currently questionable, but it’s certainly not an ideal time for a short week. Engram leads the Giants in receptions, yards, and touchdowns. In fact, he leads the NFL in targets among tight ends.

RB Saquon Barkley Barkley has returned to practice, beating the initial timetable given. That doesn’t mean you’ll see him play against the Patriots.

RB Wayne Gallman The Giants won’t only be without Barkley but they’ll likely be without backup running back Wayne Gallman who suffered a concussion against the Vikings.

The Patriots are undefeated and widely considered the No. 1 team in most NFL power rankings. NFL Week 6 makes the fourth week the Patriots have been favored by at least two touchdowns. The Patriots are 3-1 ATS in those games. Overall, the Patriots 3-2 ATS and four of their five games have gone Under. Worth noting, the Patriots failed to cover against the New York Jets after putting in rookie quarterback Jarret Stidham in the fourth quarter. Stidham threw a pick-six and the Patriots won 30-14. Unfortunately for New England backers, the Patriots were favored by three touchdowns.

Last week, rookie QB Daniel Jones and the Giants offense struggled to put points on the board against the Minnesota Vikings. Their defense also wasn’t bailed out by missed passes as they were against Case Keenum the week before. Kirk Cousins, who has struggled through most of the season, was able to get back on track against the porous Giants defense. Cousins threw for nearly 300 yards in the first half and the Giants gave up well over 100 yards on the ground.

Thursday Football Betting Pick — Giants at Patriots

On offense, the Patriots sit slightly above average on pass success rate (48%) but expect Brady to have his way with a Giants defense that has given up almost 1400 yards through the air this season.

Much like last week, the Giants are going to have a difficult time scoring, especially considering the absence of key players like Engram, Shepard, Barkely, and Gallman. The Patriots defense already has eight different players with at least two sacks. Teams facing the Patriots have had only a 34% rush success rate and 30% pass success rate according to data provided by Sports Data Solutions. New England hasn’t faced many potent offenses, but nor do they face one Thursday night. While I am concerned that the Patriots might have their way through the air, their defense should hold the Giants to few enough points for this game to go Under.

Thursday Night Football Betting Pick: Under 41.5 (use our FanDuel Sportsbook promo code to get these odds)

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Thursday Night Football Betting Picks — Player Props

Daniel Jones Over 222.5 passing yards +100 (use our PointsBet promo code to get these odds)- Most of these will come in the second half as the Giants play catch-up. I know Jones is missing two of his favorite targets but New York is thin at running back. Patriots opponents have passed a league-high 72% of the time. It won’t be easy, but I expect garbage time to help us out.

Golden Tate Over 4.5 receptions -152 (use our FanDuel Sportsbook promo code to get these odds) – Put simply, Jones doesn’t have many people to throw it to other than Tate.

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Thursday Night Football Betting Picks — Monkey Knife Fight Player Props

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Here are my favorite Monkey Knife Fight plays for Thursday Night Football:

Daniel Jones Over 209.5 passing yards
Tom Brady Under 309.5 passing yards
Golden Tate Over 5.5 receptions

Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images

About the Author

  • Matt Schmitto (schmitto)

  • Matt Schmitto is the sports betting editor for RotoGrinders. He grew up in Texas, graduating from Texas Tech University. He has played high stakes DFS since 2013, and enjoys betting on golf, basketball, football and whatever else is put in front of him. Schmitto is an advocate of The Bettor’s Oath.

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