Thursday Night Football Betting Picks: Rams at Seahawks

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NFL Week 5 kicks off Thursday night with an NFC West matchup between the Los Angeles Rams and the Seattle Seahawks. Russell Wilson and the Seahawks are 1.5-point favorites at online sports betting sites and the total is set at 49.5 as of Wednesday afternoon.

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Thursday Night Football Betting Picks — Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks

Spread: Seahawks -1.5 (use our PointsBet promo code to get these odds)

41% of bets on Seahawks, per VegasInsider.com

Over/Under: 49.5

51% of bets on the Over

This time last week the Los Angeles Rams (3-1 ATS) were projected to be 3-point favorites according to Pointsbet’s NFL Week 5 lookahead lines. Fast forward a few days and now Sean Mcvay’s squad is traveling as an underdog for the first time since the Super Bowl. Is the big shift merely a product of recency bias or did the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, in fact, expose the defending NFC champions in Week 4?

After a performance where Jared Goff threw for over 500 yards (passing the ball 67 times), but not without three costly turnovers. Goff has now thrown as many interceptions as he has touchdowns in the first four weeks of the season. Star running back Todd Gurley saw only 5 carries against Tampa Bay —the same number that backup running back Malcolm Brown received. The lack of carries for Gurley could be attributed to the game script. The Rams were playing from behind for nearly the full duration of a game that turned into a 55-40 shootout. Gurley did receive 7 receptions, after all. On the other hand, questions are surrounding Gurley’s health and whether McVay is beginning to preserve Gurley for the latter part of the season and eventually the playoffs. As Rams’ SB Nation writer Brandon Bates points out, it looks like McVay is preserving Gurley. Just look at his attempts and targets through Gurley’s first four weeks of the last three seasons:

“There’s no denying that Gurley is being utilized less in the run game, as his carries are down over 60% of what they were to start the last two seasons. His 49 carries currently ranks 23rd among all running backs. The burning question remains: if they’re truly not limiting his workload, then why such a drastic reduction in carries?” asks Bates.

With a short week for the injury-ridden running back, don’t expect a bump in touches.

So long as McVay preserves Gurley, the Rams will need better performances from their $134-million quarterback. To Goff’s defense… well, the Rams didn’t have any on Sunday. The Rams are in the bottom half of the league in sacks and the secondary has proven to be a complete liability.

Lucky for the Rams, the Seahawks aren’t big on airing the ball out if they don’t have to. Over 40% of Seattle’s offensive plays have been runs and they’re in the bottom half of the league in terms of pace. Only 42% of those plays have been successful according to data provided by Sports Info Solutions. For more matchup data powered by Sports Info Solutions, you can sign up for RotoGrinders premium tools featuring GridironIQ.

I think it’s very likely that the Buccaneers exposed the Rams, but I’m skeptical the Seahawks will try to take advantage of them through the air. I also don’t think the Seattle’s win over the Cardinals told us anything. For that reason, I’m staying away from a side and instead betting the total on this game. The Seahawks will play at a slow pace as usual, and I can see the Rams trying to run the ball more, even if it’s not with Todd Gurley.

My Pick: Under 49.5 (use our FanDuel Sportsbook promo code to get these odds)

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Thursday Night Football Betting Picks — Player Props

Todd Gurley Under 59.5 Rushing Yards (use our PointsBet promo code to get these odds)

Will Dissly Over 4.5 Receptions +120 (Use our DraftKings Sportsbook promo code to get these odds)

Thursday Night Football Betting Picks — First Touchdown Bets

First Touchdown -Will Dissly +1100 (use our PointsBet promo code to get these odds)

Thursday Night Football Betting Picks — Monkey Knife Fight Player Props

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Jared Goff Under 280.5 Passing Yards
Russell Wilson Under 270.5 Passing Yards

Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images

About the Author

schmitto
Matt Schmitto (schmitto)

Matt Schmitto is an Organic Strategy Lead for Better Collective. He was introduced to daily fantasy sports in 2012 and soon became a member at RotoGrinders. Seven years later, Schmitto joined RotoGrinders Network full time as a staff writer shortly after the Supreme Court overturned PASPA. He has since covered important stories in the sports betting and fantasy sports industries for sites like SportsHandle and USBets and has had roles as a sports betting editor and commercial content manager. He continues to play DFS and loves placing Futures bets at sportsbooks. His favorite DFS sites are DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, and PrizePicks. Follow Schmitto on Twitter – @Matt_Schmitto