Thursday Night Football Betting Picks: Titans at Jaguars
NFL Week 3 kicks off with a Thursday Night Football matchup between two AFC South rivals. Here’s a sports betting preview and Thursday Night Football betting picks for the Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars
The Tennessee Titans opened as 2.5-point favorites but the spread has moved to -1.5 at some online sports betting sites, according to VegasInsider.com. The total opened 40.5 and has fallen a point to 39.5.
NFL Betting Tips:* Remember to use RotoGrinders’ new NFL odds comparison tool to look at NFL Week 3 lines across the online sports betting industry and find out what sportsbook has the best price for your favorite bets. Also read our breakdown of early NFL Week 3 lines and betting picks for almost every game.
Now, let’s break down the odds and make NFL betting picks for Thursday Night Football.
Thursday Night Football Betting Picks — Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars +1.5, O/U 39.5
The Tennessee Titans started off hot with a win against Cleveland but fell two points short to the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday. The Jaguars had high expectations heading into the season before new QB Nick Foles went down in the first quarter of Week 1. Rookie Gardner Minshew has stepped up, playing well against both the Chiefs and the Texans. Though the 0-2 Jaguars are dealing with drama between Jalen Ramsey and Jacksonville’s front office, Minshew’s impressive play leaves a glimmer of hope for Jaguars fans.
Speaking of Ramsey, a trade doesn’t sound imminent as Ramsey’s price tag, plus his desire for a new deal, leaves potential suitors slow rolling for now. If and when the Jaguars trade Ramsey, it will certainly be a loss. As PFF’s George Ghahrouri points out, Ramsey allowed a 69 passer rating when targeted (120 times) while covering Antonio Brown, T.Y. Hilton, Tyreek Hill, Odell Beckham Jr. and Deandre Hopkins. The rest of NFL cornerbacks? A 104 rating when covering that same group.
On Tuesday, Ramsey said his focus was on the Titans, which is good news if you’ve already bet on the Jaguars or are leaning that direction.
It’s about to get windy…
Jacksonville is in store for heavy winds Thursday night. RotoGrinders’ Chief Meteorologist Kevin Roth tweeted on Tuesday that there could be 20mph sustained winds and gusts up to 30 mph. Since his tweet, the total has dropped to 38.5 at DraftKings.
My Pick: Under 39.5 (use our FanDuel Sportsbook promo code to get these odds) This was already the lowest total on the board prior to the windy weather forecast. Though Minshew has looked more than serviceable, the Jaguars still only managed to score 12 points against the Texans. The Titans offense wasn’t much better, scoring 17 at home against the Indianapolis Colts. The total has fallen significantly at Draftkings but we can still bet Under 39.5 at FanDuel.
Thursday Night Football Betting Picks — Player Props at FanDuel
Leonard Fournette Over 67.5 Rushing Yards (use our FanDuel Sportsbook promo code to get these odds) – Fournette has yet to rush over 66 yards. Back from an injury in 2018, Fournette has been handed the ball 28 times out of the Jaguars 30 designed runs. Fournette is averaging 4.0 yards per carry and if the weather is bad on Thursday, there could be an uptick in run plays. It doesn’t hurt that the Titans are giving up an average of 134.5 rushing yards per game.
Thursday Night Football Betting Picks — Game Props at PointsBet
Use our PointsBet promo code to get these odds
Will There be a Defensive Touchdown — NO -400 – Oddly, there seems to be a lot of value on this bet, making it my favorite prop of the night. I didn’t look back at 2018 or 2017 numbers, but through 32 games this season only five have had defensive touchdowns. One of those games was against the Dolphins and the other was against the pass-heavy Buccaneers. If those numbers are a true depiction of what we can expect during the season (I don’t know if they are or not), then the implied odds ought to be -640 not -400. Moreover, both teams will rely on their run games Thursday night and the game should be close throughout. Fewer dropbacks reduce the odds of a fluky defensive touchdown from either an interception or quarterback fumble — when most defense touchdowns occur. And don’t worry about Fournette or Henry fumbling the ball. Dating back to Week 1 of the 2018 season, neither running back has lost a fumble.
Outcome of First Drive — Punt -165
First Touchdown Scorer — Marcus Mariota +2500
Thursday Night Football Monkey Knife Fight Picks
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Here are my favorite Monkey Knife Fight props for Thursday Night Football:
Touchdown Dance Over 1.5x (Prize: 1.5x) — Leonard Fournette + Derrick Henry + Delanie Walker
Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images