Thursday Night Football Picks: Broncos vs. Browns Odds & Predictions
| Broncos Odds | +1.5 |
| Browns Odds | -1.5 |
| Over/Under | 41 |
| Date | Thursday, Oct 21. |
| Time | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
A plethora of injuries, wind gusts up to 25 mph, and a chance of rain — NFL bettors, beware: Thursday Night Football could get ugly.
The news coming out of the Browns locker room has kept oddsmakers and sportsbooks on their toes, but probably not as much as you expected. Despite a lengthy injury report, which includes injuries to a handful of key players, the Browns remain favored across the sports betting industry.
This time last week, the lookahead line was Browns -6. By Sunday it was -5, Monday -4.5, and down to -1.5 Thursday morning. The total has also taken a dip, falling from over/under 44.5 to 41.
Cleveland Browns
The Browns are down a starting quarterback, two running backs, and likely wide receiver Odell Beckham. Unfortunately, their injury woes don’t stop there.
Case Keenum, who does have experience as an NFL starter, will step up behind center but his job won’t be easy, as three offensive linemen — center JC Tretter and both tackles, Jedrick Wills Jr. and Jack Conklin — are also listed as questionable. That’s not exactly encouraging news, considering Von Miller will be on the other side of the football.
The good news? While Miller, 32, can still find his way to the quarterback (4.5 sacks this season), the Broncos defense has largely fallen short of expectations. They are keeping opposing quarterbacks clean on a league-high 72.81% of dropbacks, which is consistent with their league-low pressure rate of 26.27%.
The Browns have also activated Jarvis Landry off of the IR, a timely addition for a rusty quarterback who will look to get rid of the ball quickly. Keenum also has WR Donovan Peoples-Jones to throw to if Beckham is out. After an encouraging training camp, the 22-year-old started the season slowly but has emerged as a reliable threat downfield in recent weeks, recording nine receptions, 171 total yards, and a pair of touchdowns in his last two games.
With Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt absent, the Browns turn to a three-man backfield made of D’ernest Johnson, Demetric Felton, and John Kelly.
Denver Broncos
Meanwhile, the Broncos have injury concerns of their own after allowing five sacks and 17 hits on quarterback Teddy Bridgewater on Week 6. Bridgewater has been listed as questionable throughout the week but is expected to battle through foot and quad injuries Thursday night.
Denver’s offensive line has another tough test as they try to fend off a Browns defense that ranks fourth in pressure rate (32%) and third in sack rate (7.4%) when not blitzing.
By keeping the Browns favored, oddsmakers suggest two things: 1) Case Keenum isn’t a drastic downgrade from Mayfield, and 2) the Broncos are very bad.
Do they have a point?
Thursday Night Football Pick
I’m not necessarily in the “Baker is a bad quarterback camp,” but he hasn’t been very impressive since injuring his shoulder. Against the Cardinals, Mayfield completed 19-of-28 attempts for only 234 yards and an interception. He looked better the week before, throwing for 305 yards and completing 72 percent of his passes against the Chargers, but in Week 4 against the Vikings it was clear something was wrong as he went merely 15-of-33 for 155 yards.
As for the Broncos, there are not many teams in the NFL who wouldn’t be at least 3-3 with their schedule. Denver started the season 3-0, but their wins came against the Giants, Jaguars, and Jets. Since then, they’ve lost by 16 points at home to the Ravens, 8 points in Pittsburgh, and most recently another double-digit home loss to the Raiders.
Maybe the guys behind the counter are onto something…
As tempting as it is to bet on the Broncos and/or take the under, I’m betting solely on the Browns. The Broncos gave up a combined 61 points to Ben Roethlisberger (27) and Derek Carr (34). Case Keenum is capable of having success tonight, too.
While I choose to stay away from the total, I don’t hate the under. As we’ve already discussed, the Broncos have offensive concerns, including injuries. I expect a big game from Myles Garrett and the defense as the Broncos continue to provide sub-par protection for an already-hobbled quarterback. The weather forecast could also make it challenging to find the end zone with any consistency.
If you can’t muster the courage to stick with the Browns, consider using the Broncos +8 as a teaser leg.
Pick: Browns -1.5 (-110)
Image Credit: Imagn