Thursday Night Football Betting Picks: Patriots vs. Rams
What did you do on your day without football? Withdrawal? Fret not, the NFL is serving up another helping of pigskin for Thursday Night Football. The Los Angeles Rams look to keep hold of the top seed in the NFC West while the Patriots cling to playoff hopes after beating down the Chargers in Week 13. Can Cam and the Patriots make it three in a row? Will the Rams better their playoff resume?
Thursday Night Football Odds: Patriots vs. Rams
The Rams opened as six-point favorites and the line rests at -4.5 at the time of this writing. The game total continues to toe the 45-point mark. With two teams that want to run the football excessively, betting over this mark is a tricky proposition. The under is 4-0 in the Patriots last four games.
Wins Matter
How would you react if I told you that Cam Newton has thrown for 84 and 69 yards over the last two games with a single passing touchdown? You would probably assume the Patriots are getting ready to close up shop for the season and start evaluating talent for 2021. Nope. The Patriots won back-to-back games despite the dreadful stat lines from their quarterback. Cam doesn’t seem concerned about his stat line.
The #Raiders have had no new positives in COVID-19 testing, which means several defensive players — including S Johnathan Abram and DTs Maliek Collins and Johnathan Hankins — should be on the wire as activated. When today’s test comes back for tomorrow AM, they’ll be good.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) November 21, 2020
Cam is questionable but should be active on Thursday night. With or without Newton, the Patriots eviscerated the Chargers in Los Angeles. As short underdogs, the Patriots’ defense and special teams overwhelmed the Chargers — tuning up the Anthony Lynn-led team 45-0 en route to a 6-6 record. Scoring a return TD and returning a blocked FG for a touchdown, the Patriots’ defense was a winner for DFS players in Week 13. The Patriots allowed a season-low 258 yards — who needs a quarterback?
The Patriots are committed to running the football — leading the NFL with 33.2 attempts per game while throwing only 28.2 passes per game. The Patriots are the second-slowest paced team in the NFL with a lead and the third-slowest paced team when behind. The formula is clear. Slow the pace down and hide a clearly, unexciting offense. Give the defense and special teams a chance to win the game. So, how will this formula work against the top-ranked defense with respect to yards per play (4.6)?
Also read: NFL Week 14 Lines and Betting Picks
Rams Up Top
The landscape of the NFC West changes each week. In Week 13, the Wild, Wild West took a huge shift after the Seahawks lost to the New York Giants at home. The Rams took care of business against the Cardinals and near-cemented their position at the top of the division. With the Patriots tonight and the Jets next week, a couple of wins in a row will make the Week 16 Showdown with the Seahawks must-see TV.
Not to be outdone by the Patriots’ Week 13 performance, the Rams allowed a measly 232 total yards to the Cardinals in Arizona. The Rams turned Arizona over twice — taking one to the house. The Rams’ defense is punishing opposing offenses and taking plenty of the pressure off of Jared Goff and the offense.
Like the Patriots, the Rams run the football plenty but balance far more with more passing attempts per game than rushes. The Rams’ offense is at their best when pushing the pace — ranked 7th when leading per GridironIQ. As evidenced by the an aerial assault against the Tampa Bay Bucs in Week 11, Sean McVay clearly tailors the game plan to exploit the weakness of his opponent. The Patriots allowed 7.3 yards per pass attempt — potentially exploitable by the Rams’ passing game.
On the other hand, Cam Akers continues to emerge as the top back in the Rams’ backfield — amassing 30 carries over the last two weeks for a 5.2 yards per attempt and two touchdowns. Malcolm Brown and Darrell Henderson combined for 19 total carries during the same timeframe. With Akers getting in a practice before Thursday, he is primed for an expanded role and should be a popular single-game DFS play.
That said, as mentioned in previous articles, the defense is the strength of the Los Angeles Rams. Led by Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey, the Rams are going to give the New England offense fits. I am not sure this will be the week for Cam Newton to overcome his statistical woes. Points will be at a premium.
Thursday Night Football Betting Picks
At the time of this writing, the Rams are -4.5 across online betting sites. I can’t find the paths to success for the New England offense against an overwhelming defense. Given the slow pace of play by the Patriots and both teams’ proclivity to running the football, points should be down tonight. I am on the Rams and the under.
NFL Betting Picks: Los Angeles -4.5 at BetMGM & Under 44 at PointsBet
Patriots-Rams Player Props
Jakobi Meyers UNDER 49.5 Receiving Yards (-112 DraftKings) – Meyers receives the most volume in the passing game and will likely play the role of the “#1 receiver” against a tough Rams’ secondary. Likely drawing the attention of Jalen Ramsey, I do not like his prospects, tonight. Give me the under.
Cam Newton UNDER 181.5 Passing Yards (-110 BetMGM) – I am beating the drum a bit too much here, I know. Rams defense… dominant… stout… blah, blah… The reason this keeps getting reiterated is because it is true. While Cam did not need to throw the football against the Chargers, he was equally ineffective against the Cardinals. Playing this defense does not inspire my confidence. I will take the under.
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