Today's Hitter Breakdown: April 13th
After DraftKings finished the Hardball Hit Parade, they continue to roll out awesome promos with Chase for the Crown 2. The vacation prize of a lifetime is nice, but what shouldn’t be lost is the $500k Midsummer Classic, where $125k will be given away to the winner.
I always enjoy baseball Saturdays, as there are 2 times with at least 7 games starting. Not too many and not too little if there are only early games and only late games. Do not let the Friday DFS hangover get to you too bad, because there is money to be made.
Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Hamilton | 0.644 | 0.292 | 0.249 | 1 | Harrell – R | 7.84 | 0.273 |
| Nelson Cruz | 0.773 | 0.429 | 0.388 | 0.93 | Saunders – L | 3.48 | 0.556 |
| Ian Kinsler | 1.009 | 0.29 | 0.398 | 0.93 | Saunders – L | 3.48 | 0.222 |
| Carlos Gonzalez | 0.733 | 0.28 | 0.397 | 0.89 | Volquez – R | 10 | 0.28 |
| Todd Frazier | 1.054 | 0.375 | 0.441 | 0.88 | Locke – L | 6 | 0.333 |
| Starlin Castro | 0.715 | 0.333 | 0.28 | 1.01 | Bumgarner – L | 9 | 0.1 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 1.176 | 0.435 | 0.437 | 1.04 | Ryu – L | 7.71 | 0.25 |
| Torii Hunter | 1.019 | 0.472 | 0.393 | 0.9 | Anderson – L | 1.38 | 0.222 |
| AJ Pollock | 1 | 0.267 | 0.38 | 1.04 | Ryu – L | 7.71 | 0.375 |
| Dustin Pedroia | 0.787 | 0.393 | 0.34 | 1.04 | Price – L | 8.18 | 0.333 |
- Josh Hamilton is just waiting to break out of his slump, and I think he does it finally in this game. The Angels are struggling and they get the best cure one can hope for, Lucas Harrell who was plain awful in his last game. The Angels can’t be this bad to not rough up Harrell can they?
- Nelson Cruz hasn’t exactly been crushing the ball lately, seen by his .783 OPS but he is 5/9 against lefties on the season. He gets to face Joe Saunders who padded his stats a bit by playing against Houston a few nights ago. I like his upside hitting with all the other right handers on Texas.
- Ian Kinsler has been hot lately, smashing a home run last night, and now he gets Saunders who he has hit 4 homers off of in 24 at bats with a 1.464 OPS. If you can afford him at 2nd, go for it.
- Carlos Gonzalez may end up being too expensive, but he has a really nice matchup against Edinson Volquez who has been terrible to start the year. He isn’t in the best park, but he has some nice numbers against Volquez, 7 for 15.
- Todd Frazier has had a really nice start to the season, and with the Reds swinging the bats really well, he should have plenty of RBI opportunities. He gets to face off against Jeff Locke today who in my opinion isn’t that great, and the right handed dominant Reds lineup should be able to do some damage even in PNC.
- Sometimes I wonder when Starlin Castro is going to put it all together and finally be a star. He was the hero yesterday, and the one thing I do know is that he seems to own Bumgarner, going 8 for 18 off of him. Bumgarner isn’t in the comfy confines of AT&T park in this game and I think he gives up some runs to the Cubs.
- Paul Goldschmidt kills left handers, and he gets a new one to MLB here. Usually hitters struggle with new pitchers, but I don’t think Ryu is ready for the lefty killer Goldschmidt. I like Paul’s upside here.
- Torii Hunter has continued what he did last year and brought it into this year. The issue appears to be power, but if he is getting 2 knocks per game with consistency, you don’t need home run power. I truly expect him to cool off, but right now he is on fire. His 7 for 16 numbers against Anderson do not hurt either.
- For a value play option, I am looking at AJ Pollock in Chase Field. Pollock has really done well against left handers this year, getting his 2 home runs off left handers. I think the D-Backs will put up some runs on Ryu and I want to be a part of it.
- David Price hasn’t looked good at all to begin the season. He will turn it around at some point, but if he is going to continue to struggle in this game, Dustin Pedroia will be the reason why. Pedroia has decent numbers against Price, and the big stat in my opinion is that he has only punched out 3 times in 31 at bats so he is able to make contact with Price.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edwin Encarnacion | 0.354 | 0.274 | 0.246 | 1.03 | Shields – R | 3.75 | 0.172 |
| Melky Cabrera | 0.881 | 0.355 | 0.331 | 1.03 | Shields – R | 3.75 | 0.321 |
| Ryan Braun | 1.575 | 0.667 | 0.587 | 0.99 | Wainwright – R | 3.46 | 0.5 |
| Rickie Weeks | 0.258 | 0.318 | 0.319 | 0.99 | Wainwright – R | 3.46 | 0.227 |
| Michael Brantley | 0.379 | 0.333 | 0.324 | 1.03 | Sale – L | 1.84 | 0.2 |
| Ben Zobrist | 0.855 | 0.375 | 0.405 | 1.06 | Lester – L | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 0.584 | 0.278 | 0.272 | 0.97 | Hamels – L | 10.97 | 0.154 |
| Josh Reddick | 0.322 | 0.087 | 0.241 | 0.96 | Verlander – R | 2.19 | 0.15 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.917 | 0.25 | 0.322 | 0.88 | Cueto – R | 2.77 | 0.3 |
| Dayan Viciedo | 0.584 | 0.167 | 0.254 | 0.9 | McAllister – R | 3 | 0.19 |
- Edwin Encarnacion is just ice cold at this point. He only has 3 hits and 9 strikeouts in his last 25 at bats. He gets to face James Shields who he is 5 for 22 off of in his career.
- Melky Cabrera is another Jay who has pretty terrible numbers against Shields, 5 for 23 with a .612 OPS. Melky hasn’t been as cold as EE to start the season, but Shields should keep the Jays in check here.
- I will say, picking against Ryan Braun at this point may be suicide, but I am seriously doubting he is worth the salary today. He has struggled against Wainwright in the past with a .196 avg and .624 OPS in 46 at bats. His price on most sites is equal to an upper tier pitcher, and I just don’t think he has the upside to play today.
- After a scorching start to the season, Rickie Weeks has really really cooled off. I mean really cooled off as he has 2 hits in 22 at bats in the last 7 days. The matchup against Wainwright is also tough as Wainwright has owned the Brewers previously.
- Michael Brantley is another one that had a nice start to the season, and has gone ice cold recently. Brantley has a terrible matchup with Sale who he is 1 for 8 with 3 KOs against. If Sale is on the money, Brantley could have a very ugly game.
- Jon Lester has Ben Zobrist number. Actually, Lester has most of the Ray’s numbers, but especially Zobrist’s. Ben has struck out 15 times in 35 at bats against Lester and sports a .713 OPS.
- This pathetic lineup that Miami puts out there is really hurting Giancarlo Stanton value. Here he goes against Hamels, a guy who he has really struggled against. Hamels has struck him out 15 times in 32 at bats, which means he is striking out almost every other time against Hamels. There are better options out there for the price.
- Josh Reddick has had a disgustingly bad start, and now he gets to face Verlander. Reddick is only 2 for 10 off Verlander, and couldn’t hit his way out of a paper bag right now.
- I didn’t like Andrew McCutchen last night, and he homered. I don’t like him again tonight, so we will see what he can do. I think there are better options out there at that high of a salary. McCutchen is in a bad park for right handers to hit in, is facing a good right hander in Cueto, and has pretty bad numbers against Cueto.
- Dayan Viciedo is whiffing at everything right now and has managed a 39% K rate this season. He faces another right hander who he is inept against, and should be avoided at all costs.