Today's Hitter Breakdown: April 23rd
Last night, the weather struck again, causing 2 games to be postponed and 17 games to be played on this Tuesday. There seems to be some more weather issues, but it’s too early to tell if it is going to put games in jeopardy.
All of the Braves/Rockies players are solid plays tonight and as such I have ignored them here and instead focused on the other games that will be played. Joyce has been sitting against lefties, so I hope putting him here as the picture is not a jinx on him playing.
Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Joyce | 0.842 | 0.222 | 0.255 | 0.87 | Hughes – R | 6.43 | 0.22 |
| Ian Kinsler | 0.974 | 0.273 | 0.408 | 1 | Vargas – L | 6.75 | 0.167 |
| Josh Hamilton | 0.178 | 0.222 | 0.252 | 0.97 | Ogando – R | 8.25 | 0.224 |
| Kyle Seager | 1.185 | 0.321 | 0.342 | 0.94 | Norris – R | 5.4 | 0.313 |
| Matt Kemp | 0.784 | 0.32 | 0.249 | 0.92 | Niese – L | 3.8 | 0.333 |
| Jonathan Lucroy | 1.053 | 0.244 | 0.33 | 0.97 | Richard – L | 5.28 | 0.389 |
| Jean Segura | 0.653 | 0.412 | 0.391 | 0.97 | Richard – L | 5.28 | 0.383 |
| Alex Gordon | 0.804 | 0.421 | 0.378 | 1.03 | Scherzer – R | 2.84 | 0.298 |
| Erik Kratz | 0.722 | 0.238 | 0.242 | 0.99 | Locke – L | 5.17 | 0.143 |
| Buster Posey | 0.829 | 0.267 | 0.316 | 0.85 | Corbin – L | 1.42 | 0.267 |
- Matt Joyce has been sitting against left handers recently, but here he gets a nice right hander in Phil Hughes who he should be able to post a nice stat line against. Joyce is 5 for 11 with 2 home runs in a small sample off of Hughes who has been bad this year.
- Some of the Rangers have bad splits against Vargas and some have really good ones. Ian Kinsler is one with a really good split as he is 12 for 35 and has only struck out 3 times. He is expensive but could be worth it today.
- Josh Hamilton went 4 for 4 and was basically all of the Angel’s offense last night. This could be the time where he finally settles in and starts mashing. Ogando hasn’t been the greatest, and I like Hamilton here as his price is really affordable on most sites.
- Norris was just downright awful in his last start and now has to face the red hot Kyle Seager. Seager is still a pretty good bargain everywhere and is really seeing the ball well.
- Matt Kemp has really struggled against right handers this year but is still potent against lefties. I’m calling his first homer of the season tonight.
- Jonathan Lucroy has been hitting the ball really well recently, and crushes lefties, so why wouldn’t you love him here against Clayton Richard who has been pretty bad this season. Plus, he spells his name correctly.
- Jean Segura has been cheap on a ton of sites for a while and has been producing numbers for Milwaukee and hit leadoff yesterday for the Brewers. I like a lot of Brewers right handers today, but especially Segura as he has been invincible against lefties early in the year.
- A ton of the Royals have good splits against Scherzer, including Alex Gordon who led the league in doubles last year. Gordon is 7 for 18 including 5 walks. Scherzer seems to have trouble with Kansas City, and they could surprise some today.
- There are a ton of good catcher options today so if you are looking to go cheap you could go with Erik Kratz. Kratz is someone who could post a 2 HR game and get you a bit more salary for someone else. He gets a nice matchup against Locke and has a good chance of going deep if he plays.
- Here we go. Buster Posey is starting to take off against left handers, homering last night and having an all around nice game. He gets another left hander today in Corbin who should be scared even at AT&T park. If he isn’t too expensive, he might be a must play.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Ortiz | 1.325 | 0.625 | 0.601 | 1.09 | Colon – R | 3.32 | 0.667 |
| Robinson Cano | 1.068 | 0.346 | 0.422 | 0.87 | Price – L | 6.26 | 0.154 |
| Vernon Wells | 0.956 | 0.3 | 0.433 | 0.91 | Price – L | 6.26 | 0.375 |
| Adrian Beltre | 0.874 | 0.207 | 0.287 | 1 | Vargas – L | 6.75 | 0.231 |
| David Murphy | 0.767 | 0.173 | 0.241 | 0.91 | Vargas – L | 6.75 | 0.222 |
| Jayson Werth | 0.708 | 0.314 | 0.333 | 0.97 | Wainwright – R | 2.48 | 0.283 |
| Ike Davis | 0.797 | 0.184 | 0.251 | 0.97 | Kershaw – L | 1.88 | 0.133 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 0.763 | 0.435 | 0.397 | 0.85 | Cain – R | 7.15 | 0.36 |
| Martin Prado | 0.442 | 0.238 | 0.306 | 0.85 | Cain – R | 7.15 | 0.245 |
| Brandon Phillips | 0.683 | 0.328 | 0.376 | 0.97 | Villanueva – R | 1.29 | 0.273 |
- David Ortiz is back and his numbers are pretty insane for his start to the season. The thing to keep in mind though is it is only 8 plate appearances so far and the number I am concerned with is his bad splits against Colon. Ortiz is 6 for 46 with a .417 OPS, which is a decent sample and pretty bad.
- Robinson Cano has been trash against left handers this season, and now gets to face David Price in a pitcher’s park. Cano has some pretty bad splits against Price and this is just a bad situation for him.
- I fully expect Price to come back in this one and pitch a good game. Most of the Yankees have pretty bad splits against Price, including wells who is 4 for 27 with 6 strikeouts. It may seem tempting with a right/left matchup but it really could be a low scoring game.
- Adrian Beltre is strange in where his splits against left handers aren’t as good as his right handed splits. Here he faces Vargas who he is 2 for 21 off of in his career. I am not loving this spot as Beltre has yet to get really hot this year.
- David Murphy couldn’t be in much worse of a position. He can’t hit left handers, and is against a lefty in Angel Stadium who he is 1 for 19 off of in his career. Just ignore him today.
- Jayson Werth is off to a pretty average start this season and now gets to face Adam wainright in Nationals Park. wainwright has been very good to start the season and Werth has struggled a bit against Wainwright in his career.
- While Ike Davis brings you home run power whenever he steps to the plate, I don’t want to chance it against Kershaw. Davis generally struggles against lefties and Kershaw should be able to strike him out at least twice.
- What I find the most interesting is that through a small sample this year, Goldschmidt is actually hitting right handers at a much better rate than left handers. His career stats however still say he’s much better against left handers. Cain has been bad, but he gets to go home to AT&T which is a pitchers dream.
- Martin Prado did get a hit last night but still appears ice cold. I am not liking his upside against Cain in AT&T, especially with the way he has been hitting.
- Brandon Phillips has been below average hitting recently and now he faces Carlos Villanueva who has been stellar this year for the Cubs. Great American Ballpark isn’t as good to hit in from the right side as the left and Phillips also isn’t as good against righties than lefties.