Today's Hitter Breakdown: August 19th
A decent Monday night on tap with 10 games, some aces pitching, and some really terrible pitchers pitching. Hopefully the weather holds out as it looks like no real problems at this time. It is time to start another week of grinding so lets get right to the matchups.
Park Factors are starting to get back to normal with a bigger sample size, and it will continue to move towards the actual number as we get more games and more data.
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Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Utley | 0.649 | 0.296 | 0.359 | 1.06 | Manship – R | 7.2 | 0.301 |
| Evan Longoria | 1.383 | 0.318 | 0.365 | 0.98 | Tillman – R | 3.7 | 0.248 |
| Dexter Fowler | 0.848 | 0.32 | 0.353 | 1.06 | Martin – R | 6.28 | 0.244 |
| Josh Hamilton | 1.087 | 0.266 | 0.306 | 0.99 | Salazar – R | 4.08 | 0.252 |
| AJ Pierzynski | 0.649 | 0.293 | 0.32 | 1.01 | Harrell – R | 5.16 | 0.27 |
| Ian Desmond | 0.657 | 0.326 | 0.344 | 1.01 | Samardzija – R | 4.29 | 0.274 |
| Kyle Seager | 0.808 | 0.311 | 0.361 | 0.91 | Parker – R | 3.87 | 0.315 |
| Troy Tulowitzki | 1.008 | 0.335 | 0.402 | 0.99 | Martin – R | 6.28 | 0.316 |
| Shin-Soo Choo | 0.8 | 0.334 | 0.382 | 1.04 | Delgado – R | 3.52 | 0.32 |
| Joey Votto | 0.804 | 0.375 | 0.404 | 1.04 | Delgado – R | 3.52 | 0.341 |
- The Rockies are giving Manship another opportunity to pitch even after he was so bad last time out. This time he faces the inept Phillies, however they do have some solid left handed bats that could give him some trouble. Utley has not been hitting well lately, but does have a .301 avg and .871 OPS against right handed pitchers on the season. I like him at second tonight against a guy who could really implode.
- Evan Longoria may be hitting a hot streak here. He has 2 homers in the last 4 games and gets to face Tillman tonight who he has owned to the tune of 9 for 21 with 3 homers and a 1.452 OPS. Tillman has struggled against right handers giving up a .791 OPS to them and he has given up 18 homers at home. This could be a nice spot for the Rays offense tonight in Camden.
- In what could be the highest scoring game of the night, Dexter Fowler will face off against a guy who has thrown batting practice to lefties in his first major league starts. Martin has given up a 1.045 OPS to left handers in his limited time in the majors, and he has been very bad, especially in Citizens Bank where he has a 6.75 ERA. The Rockies are bad away from Coors but could be set for a nice game tonight.
- Could we be seeing the re-emergence of Josh Hamilton? It certainly looks like it although he has fooled us multiple times this season. Hamilton has 4 multi hit games in his last 5 and also has 2 HR in the last 2 games. He faces off against Salazar today who has been good against left handers this year, but I want a bigger sample before assuming he dominates lefties. If anything, Salazar has shown that he is a bit homer prone with his big power, and that is what Hamilton is known for.
- I imagine there will be a bunch of Rangers stacks tonight against Harrell and rightfully so. While most Rangers are good plays I will recommend Pierzynski as he has a habit of destroying right handed pitching at home. He may still be getting used to Rangers Park but he still homers more there than awa, and Harrell has just allowed all hitters to take advantage of him this year.
- Last time Ian Desmond faced off against Samardzija he was on this list and hit a homer. I see no reason to take him off with his 8 for 13 mark with a 1.692 OPS in their meetings. Samardzija has been bad recently giving up games of 4 ER 9 ER and 3 ER and never going past the 6th inning. The Nationals hit a bit better against right handers so this could be a nice spot for the shortstop.
- After a mini slump where he went 0-19, Kyle Seager looks to be back at it with 2 HR in the last 3 and runs and walks in those games as well. He has some pretty impressive numbers against right handed pitching and even though he does not have the history against Parker, Parker has allowed lefties to hit him at a .732 clip and Seager is one of the better hitting 3rd baseman in the league.
- Troy Tulowitzki has been hitting better recently with multi hit games in 3 of 4 games and doubles in 3 of 4 games. Even without Cargo, he has been the only trying to help the Rockies win. I like him tonight against Martin who has just been garbage this year. At some places, Tulo can be found at a very nice bargain tonight with his .957 OPS against right handers on the season.
- With all of the attention which will be on the Rangers stacks tonight, a good under the radar stack might be the Reds. The Reds have the lefties to take out Delgado and they hit well at home. Shin-Soo Choo has been money against right handed pitchers this year with a 1.008 OPS and all of his homers. Choo also hits a cool .934 OPS at home so all signs are lining up tonight as Delgado allows lefties to hit at a .856 OPS against him.
- Joey Votto numbers and Choo’s numbers are very similar against right handed pitchers, noting that they both absolutely destroy them with a good plate approach. Both walk often, hit for power and do not get out against right handed pitchers. With Bruce in the back to back them up they make a formidable DFS tag team in situations like these tonight at Great American.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hanley Ramirez | 0.916 | 0.388 | 0.441 | 0.89 | Fernandez – R | 2.45 | 0.376 |
| Jean Segura | 0.695 | 0.262 | 0.327 | 1.03 | Miller – R | 2.97 | 0.305 |
| Shane Victorino | 0.447 | 0.304 | 0.323 | 1 | Lincecum – R | 4.38 | 0.274 |
| Chase Headley | 0.333 | 0.31 | 0.309 | 1 | Liriano – L | 2.68 | 0.238 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.969 | 0.349 | 0.385 | 1 | Cashner – R | 3.87 | 0.305 |
| Nick Markakis | 0.443 | 0.296 | 0.309 | 1.09 | Price – L | 3.28 | 0.27 |
| Kole Calhoun | 0.145 | 0.25 | 0.314 | 1.04 | Salazar – R | 4.08 | 0.218 |
| Brandon Crawford | 0.717 | 0.316 | 0.32 | 1 | Lester – L | 4.31 | 0.208 |
| Ryan Zimmerman | 0.768 | 0.314 | 0.339 | 1.01 | Samardzija – R | 4.29 | 0.27 |
| Junior Lake | 0.549 | 0.384 | 0.353 | 1.01 | Zimmermann – R | 3.02 | 0.253 |
- To get Hanley Ramirez these days, you are going to have to pay a pitcher’s salary just like if you were picking Cabrera. Undeniably, Ramirez has been the best hitting shortstop this year, however there are a couple with better matchups out there. Jose Fernandez is for real and has the stuff to really limit Ramirez, so while he is never a terrible play, I would not expect him to make value against a guy in Fernandez who has a 1.39 ERA at home.
- This Brewers lineup looks nothing like what it was supposed to, and now without Carlos Gomez for a while, Jean Segura is the only real bright spot left. Pitchers will be able to give him nothing to hit as it already appears they have with Segura only hitting .259 with a .640 OPS with 1 HR post all star break. The guy who was an incredible bargain pre all star is now overpriced in a bad offense. The opposing pitcher is also concerning as Miller gets to pitch in Miller park and has dominated right handers this year.
- Shane Victorino was really cold coming into that Yankees series and althought he had a couple of nice hits, his stats still look very cold. He faces off against Lincecum tonight who is the enigma of all enigmas. I think he is good in AT&T Park tonight. Victorino has an unremarkable history against him going 9 for 38 with a .237 avg and .652 OPS so if Lincecum can throw anything like his usual self he should be able to control Shane who has always been a sub par hitter against righties.
- In the lowest over/under game of the night, Chase Headley has to face off against Liriano who bounced back incredibly well after the worst start of his career. Liriano is a top tier pitcher right now and vegas belies in him too, so I would not use the Padres tonight especially Headley who has been absolutely brutal for their offense in the last week with his .333 OPS.
- As I noted before, to take full advantage of Andrew McCutchen salary you need to pick him when he is home and against a lefty. Away and against a righty is not the best spot to take him as he has a .854 OPS against righties and .766 OPS away from PNC which are not top tier numbers. While he is never a terrible play and always has a chance for a monster game, I do not like taking him in situations like this especially with a low over/under.
- The only thing that Nick Markakis has going for him today is the park he is hitting in. Other than that, he has been downright below average recently, getting a few singles but not doing much other than that. He cannot hit left handers as evidenced by his 0 HR and .616 OPS against him and he is facing a left handed pitcher who not only has held him to a .256 avg and .636 OPS but has held lefties in general to a .548 OPS.
- With the Angel’s injury problems, Kole Calhoun has been playing a big part of their offense, only figuratively though. Recently, he has been absolutely terrible with only 2 hits in the last 10 days. He has hit a couple of homers off of right handed pitching but with his recent streak I would not be too worried about that as Salazar should be able to strike him out a few times tonight.
- I am not a big fan of anything to do with this Giants offense this year except for Posey in some spots. Brandon crawford is having a decent season, however he has not been able to do much damage against left handed pitchers, and he faces a good one today in Lester who has only struggled against Arizona recently who mashes left handed pitching. Look for Lester to hold Crawford to an unimpressive game tonight.
- Ryan Zimmerman has not done much in the post all star games with a .255 avg and .690 OPS. He has had decent success against right handers but has not posted a monster game in a while. For some reason, Jeff Samardzija has Zimmerman’s number having 13 at bats against him and striking him out 5 times and not allowing a hit. If you look to stack against the shark, I might leave Ryan off your team for a different 3rd baseman.
- Junior Lake came out of nowhere for the Cubs to start smashing left handed pitching, but it does not look like he has gotten the hand of right handed pitching. He has only a .253 average against them and has to face Jordan Zimmermann today who has collected himself and posted 2 very solid games in the last 2. This Cubs offense is just a turd right now and I do not like anything about it.