Today's Hitter Breakdown: August 26th
We are definitely in the dog days of DFS right now as football drafts are in full swing, football research is being done but up until this weekend there is no game other than baseball to be played. If you can’t enough action, or are just a baseball savant, lets dig up some good matchups for you.
With only a month left in the season, this year’s Park Factors should be very representative of how the parks this year have played. There are still some irregularities, however they should work themselves out in time.
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Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Reyes | 0.767 | 0.315 | 0.346 | 1.06 | Hughes – R | 4.88 | 0.3 |
| Austin Jackson | 1.095 | 0.329 | 0.336 | 1.07 | Griffin – R | 3.84 | 0.302 |
| DJ LeMahieu | 0.64 | 0.315 | 0.292 | 1.09 | Zito – L | 5.63 | 0.268 |
| Wilin Rosario | 0.826 | 0.325 | 0.343 | 1.09 | Zito – L | 5.63 | 0.316 |
| Chase Headley | 0.771 | 0.317 | 0.31 | 0.99 | McCarthy – R | 5.44 | 0.238 |
| Jedd Gyorko | 0.654 | 0.284 | 0.314 | 0.99 | McCarthy – R | 5.44 | 0.236 |
| Michael Morse | 0.466 | 0.266 | 0.304 | 0.95 | Blackley – L | 4.85 | 0.247 |
| Jeff Baker | 1.203 | 0.321 | 0.421 | 0.95 | Saunders – L | 4.91 | 0.347 |
| Ian Kinsler | 0.9 | 0.275 | 0.333 | 0.95 | Saunders – L | 4.91 | 0.325 |
| Edwin Encarnacion | 0.802 | 0.248 | 0.387 | 1.08 | Hughes – R | 4.88 | 0.274 |
- Jose Reyes gets to hit in Rogers Centre tonight where he has loved hitting this year with a .904 OPS. Reyes has a positive BVP with 2 homers in 6 at bats against Hughes who is pretty bad and has been really homer prone this year. It does not bode well for Hughes to pitch in Rogers Centre tonight against a homer happy offense. Another thing going Reyes’ way is that he steals bases almost exclusively against righties.
- With all of the bad pitchers pitching in hitter’s parks we have a matchup here that some may look over. Austin Jackson is red hot right now and goes through these massive hot streaks at times. He is hitting in Comerica which has been really easy to right handers this year, and Jackson has crushed right handed pitching with a .808 OPS. Griffin has allowed right handers to hit 17 homers against him this season, so I am loving Jackson tonight.
- All you have to say about this is Barry Zito in Coors Field and we all know what is coming, a ton of Colorado stacks tonight. DJ LeMahieu makes a solid 2nd base play against Zito as he should be able to do some damage against a guy who has allowed a .871 OPS to all batters and 14 homers to righties this year.
- Wilin Rosario is, in my opinion, the top catcher option on the board today. You will have to pay for him, but the upside he carries against Zito in Coors field makes him well worth the price. Rosario has not exactly been tearing it up but he crushes left handed pitching and Zito has just been that bad recently, unable to even get out of one inning without surrendering at least a run.
- I cannot believe I am actually writing this but Chase Headley I think makes a solid under the radar GPP play tonight. Headley has been awful this season for the Padres but he has been hitting some doubles recently. He faces off against McCarthy, who has been almost as bad from a pitching standpoint as Headley has been from a hitting standpoint. McCarthy is just really hittable surrendering 5-9 hits in 6 straight and losing 5 of those games. McCarthy did pitch well against SD last time out but that is only one game and if the same McCarthy from last week shows up, all bets are off.
- When most of people are on DJ LeMahieu and Ian Kinsler at 2nd tonight, I believe Jedd Gyorko makes a under the radar solid 2b play. Gyorko has been hitting with power against righties, smashing 3 homers against them in the past week and change. McCarthy has allowed lefties to hit at a .785 OPS and even worse against righties at a .850 OPS.
- This reminds me of last year when Michael Morse was dirt cheap on every single site for the longest time and produced at a solid level. He is really cheap now, and has always had a ton of power against lefties. Morse has not been good but he definitely has the solid upside you are looking for from a min priced guy and the career numbers to back that up.
- When Jeff Baker plays against a right hander, he homers. tonight he is against Saunders who is absolutely garbage against right handers, allowing a .956 OPS and 20 homers in a large sample. Baker’s 1.245 OPS against left handers is out of this world and his 10 homers in 75 at bats are ridiculous. This is a primo spot and I would pay money for Baker if he plays.
- I think Ian Kinsler is the top option at 2nd tonight against Saunders. Kinsler is raking against left handed pitching this year hitting at a .826 OPS. I have explained Saunders’ awful year against right handers, and his 20 homers given up to them makes me think that he will give Kinsler a little bit of power to change his 1 HR against lefties this year. Kinsler does have an 11 for 33 history against Saunders with 4 homers.
- Basically Edwin Encarnacion is only good for the homers right now, and it is keeping his OPS up with 2 homers in the last 3 days. EE makes a solid play tonight against the gas can Hughes who is bound to leave one up for him to smash out of the park especially in Rogers Centre.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Young | 0.3 | 0.227 | 0.289 | 1.07 | Sanchez – R | 2.45 | 0.19 |
| Ike Davis | 0.852 | 0.274 | 0.297 | 0.89 | Lee – L | 3.16 | 0.138 |
| Jimmy Rollins | 0.721 | 0.282 | 0.286 | 0.89 | Wheeler – R | 3.49 | 0.253 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 0.808 | 0.254 | 0.329 | 0.96 | Greinke – R | 2.91 | 0.248 |
| Kyle Seager | 0.279 | 0.304 | 0.351 | 0.94 | Blackley – L | 4.85 | 0.237 |
| Adam Dunn | 0.472 | 0.28 | 0.346 | 1.01 | Oberholtzer – L | 2.91 | 0.208 |
| Starlin Castro | 0.374 | 0.287 | 0.281 | 0.92 | Greinke – R | 2.91 | 0.246 |
| Ichiro Suzuki | 0.589 | 0.291 | 0.289 | 1.06 | Dickey – R | 4.49 | 0.234 |
| Jay Bruce | 0.457 | 0.333 | 0.341 | 0.91 | Lyons – L | 5.09 | 0.247 |
| Carlos Beltran | 0.812 | 0.328 | 0.373 | 1.02 | Leake – R | 3.12 | 0.353 |
- I really never realized how horrible a season that Chris Young is having. He is under .200 against both right handers and left handers and really is not playing much. I do not think he will be in the lineup tonight against Sanchez, but if he is do not use him, as he is cold right now and has had no success against Sanchez in his career going 1 for 13 with 5 strikeouts.
- It almost seemed like Ike Davis had figured something out and is hitting well, however it does not look like he has figured anything out against left handers. He is still hitting them at a .388 OPs and faces Cliff Lee who goes deep into every single game, assuring that Davis will have at least 3 at bats and possibly 4 against a left hander.
- I am not a big fan of Jimmy Rollins tonight as his cheap price has deceived me multiple times recently. Rollins is not dominating anyone, and faces a solid pitcher in Wheeler. I really think that there are many better cheap shortstop options out there today with all of the terrible pitchers pitching, so I would avoid Rollins who is only hitting at a .649 total OPS this year.
- Anthony Rizzo is having a very strange month, as he could not hit anything for the last 2 week except for one day when he hit everything and hit 2 of them out of the park. If you take those 2 homers out, he is terrible. Greinke is pitching like an ace for the Dodgers, and in Dodger Stadium he should be able to cut through this Cubs lineup with ease and not risk the long ball.
- It is time for me to throw Kyle Seager down here as he has been just brutal in the last week. He has 2 total hits in 27 at bats, and even though he is hitting against a bad pitcher, he is still hitting against a left hander who he has hit at a .237 clip this year. I am not seeing the upside in the Mariners lineup tonight except for maybe a cheap filler in Morse or Morales.
- I am very surprised at how terrible Oberholtzer has not been this year. He has actually not gotten blown up at all in his starts and plays the inept White Sox today. Adam Dunn has been absolutely terrible in the last week with 4 hits and 11 strikeouts, so Oberholtzer could be a really weird cheap option today.
- Starlin Castro is terrible. Really, is there anything more I need to say? He is not hitting, has not been hitting and faces Greinke who is pitching like the Dodgers have 2 aces and has not allowed right handers to hit him at all this year.
- This is a bad spot for Ichiro. If you do not believe me, his slap hit style is not good against a knuckleball, as he has gone 3 for 17 off Dickey in his career. To make things worse, Ichiro has some nasty reverse splits this year with a .238 average and .594 OPS against righties. He has also been terrible in the last week, so do not fall into this trap.
- Jay Bruce has been brutal lately, in fact he has struck out in every game since August 15th. Bruce is a notoriously streaky player and appears to be in one of his slumps right now as he has not homered since August 7th. Tyler Lyons is not that great, but when Bruce is bad, anyone can get him out.
- I am not that big of a fan of Carlos Beltran as I feel like he is a pretty streaky player as well. Beltran has been hot recently with 3 homers in the last week and a half but he did have an 0 for 4 game last time out and faces Leake today who he is 2 for 18 career against in his career, so I would look to avoid him today with all the solid options out there.