Today's Hitter Breakdown: August 27th
Another big Tuesday for baseball, so let’s look at some value plays that may not be very much owned to help you get to the top of the player pool and get that big prize. It has been nice though recently to not worry about weather as we have not had a postponed game in a while, and hopefully not tonight either.
With only a month left in the season, this year’s Park Factors should be very representative of how the parks this year have played. There are still some irregularities, however they should work themselves out in time.
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Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Mayberry Jr | 0.925 | 0.295 | 0.317 | 0.96 | Niese – L | 4.03 | 0.263 |
| Adam Dunn | 0.605 | 0.278 | 0.348 | 1.07 | Clemens – R | 6.36 | 0.245 |
| Justin Morneau | 0.967 | 0.298 | 0.324 | 1.01 | Shields – R | 3.22 | 0.281 |
| Jose Tabata | 0.764 | 0.303 | 0.331 | 0.91 | Lohse – R | 3.22 | 0.269 |
| Jon Jay | 0.639 | 0.319 | 0.319 | 1.02 | Latos – R | 2.93 | 0.291 |
| Corey Dickerson | 0.142 | 0.284 | 0.314 | 0.99 | Petit – R | 3.38 | 0.3 |
| Brandon Belt | 0.838 | 0.329 | 0.356 | 0.99 | Bettis – R | 4.5 | 0.274 |
| Adrian Beltre | 1.262 | 0.326 | 0.395 | 0.95 | Iwakuma – R | 2.98 | 0.319 |
| Mark Ellis | 0.485 | 0.311 | 0.304 | 0.92 | Wood – L | 3.22 | 0.291 |
| Derek Jeter | 0.25 | 0.15 | 0.256 | 1.08 | Happ – L | 5.1 | 0.25 |
- John Mayberry Jr is very cheap everywhere for good reason, however I like him tonight against Niese. Mayberry has the penchant to homer at random times, and tonight looks like a good night. He has been hitting decently well in the last week and is hitting lefties at a respectable .833 OPS. For almost minimum salary, he is a good homer risk/reward play.
- Houston is like a new starter pitching factory as they keep throwing guys out there who should not be pitching. Clemens has been awful this year especially against left handers, giving up 7 HR in 77 AB and a .970 OPS. Adam Dunn hit a homer last night and should have hit 2. Dunn crushes right handers and even with his pathetic last couple of weeks I am still liking him as a GPP play tonight, just hopefully you do not mind 2-3 strikeouts.
- Justin Morneau is having a revival of sorts, with a good series against the Tigers and only one bad game against Cleveland. Tonight he faces Shields who he is 14 for 38 off of with 4 homers. I guarantee Morneau will be lightly owned, so he could be a very solid gamble tonight.
- I am surprised that the Pirates do not find Jose Tabata a bit more playing time. His wOBA is pretty good and his BABIP does not look like a correction is coming any time soon. He either has a monster game or a dud which makes him great for GPPs, and he has a 12 for 23 history with 1 homer off of Lohse. He must see Lohse pretty well and the right/right splits do not scare me.
- Jon Jay gets to hit against Latos today which should mean that he will not be owned hardly anywhere. He is at home and hits right handers very well almost hitting .300 against them on the season. Jay has been really good this month with a .925 OPS and has a nice BVP against Latos with 10 hits on 24 at bats and a .981 OPS. This is a nice spot for the outfielder and he will not be owned by many.
- Yusmeiro Petit gets the start today, and in his last major league decent sample, he was horrible, giving up 12 homers to lefties in 190 at bats. He was also bat at AAA this year giving up over 1 homer per game, and now gets to start in a home run hitters ballpark. You really cannot ask for more tonight in this game as it should be a ton of runs and everyone highly owned. I think you should probably include Corey Dickerson as he has really done damage against righties this year, and his price will have dropped with his recent struggles.
- According to a report, Buster Posey is not supposed to start tonight making the Giants look that much worse. If you still want to go with the Giants in Coors against Bettis, go with Brandon Belt. Belt has been really putting it on in August being one of San Francisco’s only positives. Belt has a 1.076 OPS in the month along with 5 homers and a nice .341 average. He is hitting well, and if anyone from the Giants is going to do it tonight against Bettis, it should be him.
- Adrian Beltre is like a fine wine; he is getting better with age. The man keeps on producing even at 34 and shows no signs of slowing down. If you can afford him today, I would not hesitate to use him as I think he has a nice matchup against Iwakuma. Not many will use him against the mini-WHIP Iwakuma, however he is 8 for 19 off Iwakuma with 2 homers and Iwakuma is still surviving on his ridiculous start of the season. Beltre does not mind hitting against righties and Iwakuma is actually worse against them than left handers.
- I guarantee not many people will have Mark Ellis tonight but he should be in line for a good game. He is a guy who will bust a 4-4 out of nowhere and can help you win. He is facing Travis Wood who has really not been the same pitcher for a while and is giving up hits by the bushel along with 13 homers to right handers. Ellis is good against lefties hitting 4 of his 6 homers against them and posting a .778 OPS. He is cheap, and hits in an offense who scores runs.
- With the aquisition of Soriano and the return of Rodriguez and Jeter, the Yankees offense actually looks decent against left handed pitching now. The price on Derek Jeter will really effect if you want to use him or not, but I do like his matchup against JA Happ in the Rogers Centre tonight. Jeter has always hit left handers well and the Rogers Centre has been very hitter friendly, just be wary of Jeter so that he doesn’t exert himself too much and go back on the DL.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Jones | 0.879 | 0.326 | 0.36 | 1.07 | Doubront – L | 3.79 | 0.242 |
| David DeJesus | 0.844 | 0.299 | 0.327 | 1 | Wilson – L | 3.3 | 0.152 |
| Daniel Murphy | 0.448 | 0.299 | 0.303 | 0.89 | Kendrick – R | 4.51 | 0.276 |
| Ryan Ludwick | 0.868 | 0.308 | 0.308 | 0.91 | Kelly – R | 3.01 | 0.32 |
| Starlin Castro | 0.432 | 0.287 | 0.27 | 0.92 | Kershaw – L | 1.72 | 0.218 |
| Michael Brantley | 0.139 | 0.288 | 0.311 | 1.03 | Wood – L | 2.5 | 0.25 |
| Josh Willingham | 0.511 | 0.273 | 0.312 | 0.99 | Shields – R | 3.22 | 0.21 |
| Dustin Ackley | 1.1 | 0.294 | 0.276 | 0.94 | Holland – L | 2.95 | 0.263 |
| Andre Ethier | 0.891 | 0.264 | 0.309 | 0.96 | Wood – L | 3.68 | 0.233 |
| Alberto Callaspo | 0.831 | 0.264 | 0.309 | 0.99 | Verlander – R | 3.12 | 0.245 |
- Do not be confused about the right/left matchup today with Jones/Doubront, Adam Jones does not have a good matchup. I do not like him at Fenway in the Orioles lineup against a left hander and I do not like the fact that he struggles in his career against left handed pitching. This year he has a .242 average and .725 OPS. With his salary being a mid-tier starting pitcher, this is not the time to get value out of him, especially since he is only 2 for 14 off Doubront with 6 strikeouts.
- It was a sly move for the Rays to pick up DeJesus, and he will be their leadoff hitter against right handed pitchers. CJ Wilson is a left handed pitcher, so he definitely won’t be leading off and may not even be playing. DeJesus’ stats against lefties this year are putrid and CJ Wilson has been pretty good lately. Just ignore this guy altogether.
- If you are looking to take Daniel Murphy tonight against Kendrick, I would advise against it. There are better options at 2nd base in my opinion. Murphy has not been that much better against right handers this year and when he has faced Kendrick in the past it has not gone so well going 4 for 24 with a .468 OPS. Murphy is struggling right now and I think you can find better value elsewhere.
- I am sure the Reds are glad to have Ryan Ludwick back, and he has done pretty well in his return from the DL. I would really look away from Reds hitters tonight at Busch basically because of Joe Kelly. Kelly has been very good for the Redbirdsin the last 2 months, really since he joined the rotation. He is not much of a strikeout pitcher but he does not give up a lot of hits and has not given up a lot of runs. Even with Ludwick’s price I am not sold on him today.
- I do not even know why I included Starlin Castro, I think I just wanted to make fun of him I guess. This could get really ugly tonight. I think he is closer to a 0-4 4k game than a 2 hit game against Kershaw.
- Essentially the coldest hitter in the majors in Michael Brantley gets to face one of the hotter pitchers in the major leagues, which does not bode well for either. Brantley is bad against left handers, and Alex Wood is solid at limiting left handers. This does not look good for the Cleveland outfielder tonight.
- Josh Willingham has not homered since August 13th and is really struggling with the bat recently. He is also on waivers, so who knows how much that is effecting him over what his weak knees are. James Shields is the stopper of the Royals staff and Willingham has never homered against him in his career. I am not looking to gamble on this one tonight.
- It does not appear that the Mariners have given up on Dustin Ackley as they continue to play him. He has been pretty good recently, with his 1.1 OPS in the last week, however I still do not believe in this guy. He does not have homer power that we have seen consistently and is facing a solid pitcher in Holland tonight who is looking like one of the best options on the board. I just do not believe still.
- With all of the decent options out there tonight I am not about to fork over money to put Andre Ethier on my team, especially not against Travis Wood in a pitcher’s park. As I said above, I am not a big fan of Wood as he is not the pitcher he was at the beginning of the year, however Ethier cannot hit left handers (.619 OPS) and Wood has actually been good against them this year, and even in his struggles.
- What is wrong with Justin Verlander has been the theme of this year. After a few starts where he pitched well he got back to struggling with 10 hits and 6 ER to Minnesota, so you really never know what you will get from him. I am actually expecting a good start from him this time out against Oakland, and Alberto Callaspo will take the brunt of that. Callaspo did a lot of damage to the Tigers yesterday but struggles against right handers and is only 4 for 17 against Verlander in his career. In fact, no one but Crisp has any good history against JV, so if you want to use an Athletic, go with the hot hand.