Today's Hitter Breakdown: July 19th
Welcome Grinders to the post all-star hitter breakdown. Today we will look at hitters who have that big potential and some who not many may pick but still have that upside that you will look for. Tonight is the mid-summer classic on DraftKings, so make sure you get in for a chance to take down the $125k top prize.
Park Factors are starting to get back to normal with a bigger sample size, and it will continue to move towards the actual number as we get more games and more data.
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Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prince Fielder | 0.926 | 0.293 | 0.355 | 0.96 | Santana – R | 3.37 | 0.256 |
| Mike Napoli | 1.012 | 0.382 | 0.344 | 1.05 | Pettitte – L | 4.39 | 0.253 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 1.274 | 0.309 | 0.357 | 1.07 | Lohse – R | 3.67 | 0.25 |
| Adam Dunn | 0.831 | 0.233 | 0.339 | 1.01 | Hudson – R | 4.02 | 0.224 |
| Trevor Plouffe | 0.765 | 0.291 | 0.334 | 1.02 | Kazmir – L | 4.6 | 0.351 |
| Jason Kubel | 0.518 | 0.325 | 0.299 | 0.96 | Gaudin – R | 2.39 | 0.259 |
| Alfonso Soriano | 0.54 | 0.294 | 0.324 | 1.11 | De La Rosa – L | 3.21 | 0.291 |
| Starlin Castro | 1.16 | 0.285 | 0.278 | 1.11 | De La Rosa – L | 3.21 | 0.267 |
| Kyle Seager | 1.198 | 0.319 | 0.366 | 1.04 | Norris – R | 3.63 | 0.32 |
| Carlos Gonzalez | 0.825 | 0.363 | 0.414 | 0.97 | Samardzija – R | 4.06 | 0.292 |
- Prince Fielder had a disappointing home run derby, but it is ok because he gets redemption tonight. When Fielder faces Santana he uses him as his own personal home run derby, going 6 for 10 with 3 home runs. Fielder had been hitting very well before the all-star break and his price is really low. Santana also got lit up the last time out and could be back to his old ways of giving up runs in bunches.4
- Mike Napoli seemed to have finally gotten it together before the all-star break, so things are looking up. Napoli’s price is extremely low and I like his matchup against Pettitte tonight even in Fenway. Pettitte is consistently giving up 9 hits per game in his last 6 and Napoli should be easily able to make value, especially with homer power. He only has 1 homer against a left hander, however in his career he has a much better HR/game rate against left handers.
- With the Marlins finally having their entire roster, Giancarlo Stanton is starting to produce. He has just a little bit of protection in the lineup now and is making it count. Stanton’s price is still at a really low level and is almost certainly a great value play on almost every site. Stanton faces Lohse, who he has gone 6 for 12 off with 2 homers and no strikeouts so he has hit him in the past. If you are worried about the right/right matchup, Stanton’s career stats are remarkably similar for each handedness.
- Picking Adam Dunn is like shooting a target with a bow and arrow blindfolded. You are hoping to get a game when he homers, but if he doesn’t, its a big whiff. One thing you can do to increase your chances is play him against right handers who he has hit 20 of his 24 homers against and has much better stats. He also hits Hudson decently, going 11 for 31 with 4 homers and only 5!! strikeouts. He is a nice potential value play tonight against Hudson who really is not striking that many out nowadays.
- I am a huge fan of Trevor Plouffe tonight as he kills left handed pitching. He has a .976 OPS against them this year, and crushed homers against them last year. He only has 2 homers this year, but do not worry about that because he only has 57 at bats against lefties this season, and he is a threat to homer still when he faces them. Kazmir has really been owned by righties as well surrendering a .894 OPS and 13 home runs, so Plouffe is a great 3rd base option for not so much money.
- Here is a real off the wall pick who I guarantee will be hardly owned in any games tonight, as Jason Kubel comes to the plate against Chad Gaudin tonight. Gaudin has been spectacular this year, and since it is at AT&T, I imagine that not many will be trusting the Diamondbacks. Gaudin is certainly pitching way above his ability right now, and his .258 BABIP is absurdly low and will absolutely correct itsself at some point. He is also sporting a 83.3 LOB%, and the lowest HR/9 and HR/FB rates in his career. He has a lot of data previous to this year, and this year is an outlier, so do not expect him to keep this up even at AT&T. Kubel has a penchant for hitting homers against righties and as long as Chris Pratt doesn’t decide to play the game instead of Kubel, there is a solid chance of a sleeper here.
- Today is one of the really good times to use Alfonso Soriano. He is hitting in Coors tonight and gets to face off against a left hander who he destroys. Soriano has crushed 7 homers in July so far, and July is only half over. The senior member of the Cubs can be found at a decent price and definitely brings 2 homer potential to the table. De La Rosa has been good but has struggled against righties giving up all 6 of his homers to them and is almost 200 points of OPS worse against righties than left.
- Starlin Castro stats have to turn around at some point right? I have given up on him this season, but hitting at Coors is a reason to regain faith in anyone. If you are looking to save salary at shortstop, he is cheap and still brings the upside of a big game even if it has not happened much this year. I am hoping the All-Star break gave him a chance to work on his swing and figure out what is bugging him at the plate.
- This is somewhat of a 2-fer pick as, I really am a fan of Kyle Seager tonight at 2nd base or 3rd base. I do know that DraftDay still has Seager eligible at 2nd, but other sites do not, so another solid play at 2nd would be Nick Franklin. Anyways, this Seattle offnese has been something to fear right before the All-Star break, and Seager was a huge part of that. He is mashing right handed pitching and his opponent today, Norris, was exposed in his last start. Seager should continue to roll, and he is a nice infield stack option with Nick Franklin in a hitter’s park in Minute Maid.
- Earlier in the year, when Samardzija was blowing away hitters, this would have been not so much of a slam dunk. With the shark really struggling, Carlos Gonzalez becomes an amazing option, especially with Tulo back in the lineup protecting him. Samardija has struggled to get lefties out this year, and surrendered 4 homers last game out. His strikeouts are down and his fly balls are up. This is bad news bears for facing CarGo in Coors Field. Just plug him in.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colby Rasmus | 1.076 | 0.344 | 0.354 | 1.02 | Price – L | 3.94 | 0.25 |
| Billy Butler | 0.651 | 0.311 | 0.339 | 0.94 | Sanchez – R | 2.93 | 0.277 |
| Jhonny Peralta | 0.929 | 0.385 | 0.352 | 0.94 | Santana – R | 3.37 | 0.284 |
| Jayson Werth | 1.123 | 0.351 | 0.36 | 0.96 | Nolasco – R | 3.76 | 0.295 |
| Shin-Soo Choo | 1.425 | 0.344 | 0.393 | 1.03 | Liriano – L | 2 | 0.175 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 1.114 | 0.335 | 0.365 | 0.94 | Leake – R | 2.69 | 0.292 |
| Carlos Quentin | 1.017 | 0.295 | 0.374 | 0.88 | Westbrook – R | 2.88 | 0.276 |
| Alex Rios | 0.259 | 0.304 | 0.328 | 0.87 | Hudson – R | 4.02 | 0.268 |
| Elvis Andrus | 0.274 | 0.285 | 0.262 | 0.97 | Chen – L | 2.82 | 0.214 |
| Nate McLouth | 0.34 | 0.303 | 0.329 | 1.03 | Holland – L | 3.08 | 0.246 |
- Colby Rasmus has been on a heater recently, increasing his average and having a bunch of multiple hit games, so the All-Star break could not have came at a worse time. David Price has gotten it together pitching 2 consecutive complete games leading up to the break. I wouldn’t be worried about fatigue, and he should be ablet dominate Rasmus just like he has to most lefties this year.
- Billy Butler has to face Anibal Sanchez right out of the break, and although Sanchez’ last 2 starts did not go so well, he had more time to rest his shoulder, and should be ready to go. Billy Butler strength is not hitting against right handers and the Royals offense could be a disaster in this game.
- Another guy from the Tigers/Royals game, Jhonny Peralta looks like a pretty poor option at SS today. There are multiple other SS out there that are cheaper and have better homer potential than Peralta, not only because of Peralta’s 2 for 23 history against Santana, but because Peralta is not as good against righties than he is against lefties and that he only homer he has hit in a month came in the one game before the All-Star break.
- Jayson Werth finally has been getting his bat together and producing for the Nationals but he has a less than desireable fantasy matchup tonight. He faces Nolasco who has really nice splits against all of the Nationals hitters. Nolasco has had the most success against Werth, giving up only 4 hits in 34 plate appearances and striking him out 10 times. While Nolasco has not been a great fantasy option in terms of striking people out, he has been somewhat effective at limiting the other teams.
- Here comes the weekly game where Shin-Soo Choo gets to face a left hander, and the left hander he faces is pretty good. Choo is only hitting .175 with a .514 OPS against lefties, and his OPS against righties is actually over DOUBLE than what it is against lefties which is pretty incredible. I just enjoy reiterating that using him against left handers is fantasy suicide.
- This pick may be a little contrarian, but I am not a huge fan of Andrew McCutchen today. Cutch has consistently loved hitting at home more than away, even though he hits in one of the most pitcher friendly parks in the league, his numbers are consistently higher. Unfortunately for him, he is away, and against a right hander where is not as good as being against a lefty. Leake is not the greatest option out there but I think this is not the time to take advantage of the Bucco’s star.
- Carlos Quentin was a solid option in the game before break, but I would not dare use him today. I hate using anyone against Westbrook because he has the ability to keep the ball in the park and has been pitching very effectively this year. Westbrook is terrible for fantasy players in general, and especially Quentin today. He has allowed a .541 OPS against right handers and Busch stadium has been brutal on righties even with the big right handed bats of the Cardinals this year.
- It looks like the 6 for 6 game took all of the hits out of Alex Rios game for a long time. Since that game he has gone 1 for 17 and is really struggling. While Hudson is not the best pitcher, Rios has only gone 3 for 16 against him in his career and is ice cold. I would rather take Dunn as I have mentioned above if you can find Dunn in the outfield eligibility.
- I have reserved this spot for the incredible Elvis Andrus who is scamming the Texas Rangers out of $14 million dollars. Andrus is only still in the league because of his defense and that they can get away with terrible production at shortstop. The only redeeming quality he has is that he steals bags against right handers, but he is facing Chen who is a lefty who he has only stolen 3 off of this year, so you cannot even rationalize that. Chen also shut down the Rangers in his last start before the break.
- Nate McLouth also had a terrible end to the first half of the season, and really did not do much of anything in the games before the break only getting 3 singles in his last 20 at bats. His average is lower against lefties and one thing I have noticed is that the Orioles are really good against right handed pitching and struggle against left handed pitching. Holland has been very solid against left handed pitching this year, he gives up hits but does not break against the lefties.