Today's Hitter Breakdown: June 17th
Welcome Grinders to another week of baseball. We creep closer and closer to that dreaded all-star week when there will be no action to be had on any of the sites. Tonight, we have some weather concerns in St. Louis and Atlanta so monitor those situations closely as there are some solid matchups to use there.
Park Factors are starting to get back to normal with a bigger sample size, and it will continue to move towards the actual number as we get more games and more data.
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Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jhonny Peralta | 0.75 | 0.409 | 0.375 | 1.07 | Arrieta – R | 6.63 | 0.298 |
| Eric Hosmer | 0.682 | 0.32 | 0.302 | 1.02 | Carrasco – R | 15.26 | 0.244 |
| Brandon Moss | 1.15 | 0.293 | 0.341 | 1.02 | Tepesch – R | 4.3 | 0.248 |
| Mike Trout | 1.057 | 0.343 | 0.398 | 1.07 | Harang – R | 5.6 | 0.301 |
| David Freese | 1.034 | 0.36 | 0.342 | 0.91 | Wood – L | 2.65 | 0.227 |
| Domonic Brown | 0.367 | 0.27 | 0.368 | 1.1 | Haren – R | 5.7 | 0.26 |
| Jayson Werth | 0.836 | 0.304 | 0.322 | 0.99 | Lannan – L | 6.14 | 0.233 |
| Jason Heyward | 0.893 | 0.238 | 0.305 | 0.94 | Gee – R | 4.84 | 0.24 |
| Kyle Blanks | 0.737 | 0.313 | 0.378 | 0.94 | Zito – L | 4.79 | 0.327 |
| Yadier Molina | 0.82 | 0.378 | 0.381 | 0.91 | Wood – L | 2.65 | 0.333 |
- Jhonny Peralta is having one of the best seasons of his career this year and is putting up all star numbers at the shortstop position. While he is a higher priced option tonight, in the high powered Tigers offense he has mutliple ways to score runs especially against Arrieta in Comerica park. Peralta has much better numbers at home than away with an OPS of .983. If you are looking to spend on shortstops, look no further.
- Carrasco’s numbers are absolutely terrible this year, and a Royals stack may be in play today. Eric Hosmer has not lived up to his expectations, but in the Royals recent resurgence, he has been hitting the ball well and scoring a lot of runs. If the Royals go off today he will surely be a part of it.
- Brandon Moss brings a nice upside play for cheap today, as he has been raking in the last 7 days. The nice part about his matchup is he is facing a right hander in Tepesch who has been completely lit up in his last 7 and cannot get left handers out, surrendering an OPS of .836 to them. Moss is destroying right handers, homering 10 of his 12 times against them and hitting at a .831 OPS clip. In Rangers Ballpark, I love this matchup.
- Another stack that might be in play is an Angels stack. Harang has had a few good starts, but he is still not a good pitcher, and that is evident by the Angel’s team BVPs against him. They almost all have had really good success, so I would expect them to continue that. Trout is expensive, but his upside today is enormous and this could be a 4/5 multiple extra base hits and a stolen base night.
- David Freese has really been getting the hit train rolling, and rolling along with the Cardinals. While Travis Wood has been really solid all season, he has given up home runs to right handers and the Cardinals are known for punishing left handers. This should be a really interesting matchup but I think the Cards get the best of this one and Freese is a big part of it.
- Domonic Brown has had a complete turnaround since his ridiculous May. He is hitting nothing right now, but gets the perfect chance to turn that around against Haren in Citizens Bank. I expect him to be faded by most people due to his cold history, but I may take a flier on him if his price has dropped at the sharp salary sites, as a more homer friendly environment may not present itsself in the near future.
- Jayson werth is really living up to the “Werthless” moniker this year, but he may be showing signs of life. He has 2 multiple hit games in a row and now gets to face John Lannan who I am sure he is familiar with. I am not trusting Lannan at all especially in Citizens Bank, and I think Werth could be Werth his salary today.
- Jason Heyward has been seeing the ball well finally and has been producing for fantasy teams for the past couple of weeks. He is still lacking in the long ball, but as long as he is doubling and walking, I doubt many will care. He does not have the easiest matchup against Gee tonight but he does have a solid history against Gee with 7 hits in 15 attempts and 5 walks. He should be a nice cheap option with ability to homer.
- Kyle Blanks has been homering at a nice rate in June, and has also been crushing left handed pitching this entire year. Today he gets to face Barry Zito who is really struggling as of late. Zito is much better at home, however in 2 of his last 3 games at home he has still given up 4 ER and 7 hits, so AT&T park is not the perfect remedy. Kyle Blanks is a huge man and brings solid power to the table, homering twice in his last 2 games, so I wouldn’t be surprised for him to do it again.
- If the rain stays away from this game, Yadier Molina could be a nice play at catcher. Although his left/right splits are about the same over the past 3 years, as I said above I am interested to see these Cardinals hit against Travis Wood. Molina does not have the greatest chance to homer today, but he knows how to hit, find the gaps, and drive runs in.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colby Rasmus | 1.253 | 0.328 | 0.343 | 1.05 | De La Rosa – L | 3.49 | 0.239 |
| Elvis Andrus | 0.431 | 0.291 | 0.265 | 0.98 | Straily – R | 4.45 | 0.263 |
| Alfonso Soriano | 0.281 | 0.308 | 0.298 | 0.91 | Miller – R | 2.21 | 0.231 |
| John Buck | 0.616 | 0.247 | 0.299 | 0.9 | Hudson – R | 4.41 | 0.228 |
| Shin-Soo Choo | 0.678 | 0.341 | 0.397 | 1.06 | Liriano – L | 2.36 | 0.173 |
| Kyle Seager | 0.398 | 0.317 | 0.348 | 0.94 | Vargas – L | 3.74 | 0.218 |
| Paul Konerko | 0.642 | 0.254 | 0.289 | 1.07 | Norris – R | 3.47 | 0.227 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 0.334 | 0.341 | 0.394 | 0.99 | Turner – R | 1.8 | 0.313 |
| Dan Uggla | 0.388 | 0.235 | 0.319 | 0.9 | Gee – R | 4.84 | 0.189 |
| Adam LaRoche | 0.303 | 0.291 | 0.321 | 1.1 | Lannan – L | 6.14 | 0.213 |
- Colby Rasmus may be a chic pick tonight as he is hitting in the Rogers Centre and has homered in 3 straight games. I would advise caution when using him though, and point out that he only has 10 homers off of left handers in the last 3 years, and only 2 this year. He struggles against left handers, and De La Rosa is no stranger to a hitter’s park, pitching half of his games in Coors. I think Rasmus is a below average play in the outfield.
- I finally decided that I was going to pay for an overpriced Elvis Andrus yesterday, as the Rangers looked like a good bet to score some runs. I was sorely disappointed, and really cannot believe how horrible Andrus has been this whole season with the bat. His .265 wOBA is incredibly low, and he is in the bottom 15 batters who have at least 200 plate appearances. The problem is on some sites his salary is still top half which is ridiculous.
- The ice cold old Alfonso Soriano gets to face the hyped phenom Shelby Miller who has been tearing through lineups this year. Soriano flat cannot hit against right handers this year and it will not change tonight. Cubs are a bad play in Busch Stadium against Miller and Soriano may be the worst of them.
- John Buck name has completely fallen off the grid after he hit those 9 homers in April. He has not hit a home run in a very long time and is struggling at the plate. He also does not have a good history against Hudson going 2 for 16 with no extra base hits, so I would not be using him at catcher today.
- The Shin-Soo Choo saga against a left hander strikes again today. Just do not use him against Liriano, who has been really solid this year. Even though Choo is in Great American, he just cannot figure out left handers and has not homered yet against one this year.
- Kyle Seager is another guy who has been struggling as of late, with the entire Mariners lineup. The Mariners have not scored over 4 runs in over 10 games, and Seager has been a big part of those struggles. He also struggles against left handers, and Vargas has been better in Angel Stadium this year.
- The White Sox are in danger of being swept by Houston, and really have been struggling with the bats against Houston’s pitchers. The bad news is that Houston’s best pitcher is up next in Bud Norris and he has held his opponents down recently. He is also better at home, so I would not trust any White Sox hitter today expecially Paul Konerko who has really been having issues hitting for power. There are much better options at first base with higher ceilings.
- Some slump like this had to hapen for Paul Goldschmidt, as he was pretty incredible through the first part of the season. He is cold now and has to face Jacob Turner who has been really good this season. Turner was the Tigers’ top pitching prospect who they dealt for Sanchez and Infante, so he does have ability and is not just a fluke. I would wait until Goldy’s salary has dropped a bit before using him again.
- It must be nice to know that you can succeed less than 20% of the time in the MLB and still have a starting job at 2nd base, so life is good for Dan Uggla. The problem is, unless you catch him on a homer streak he is horrible for daily fantasy as he strikes out and really does not do much except for homer. He has never homered in 21 at bats against Hudson and has a .388 OPS in his last 7 games, so I am going to be passing on him today.
- Even though Citizens Bank Park has been great to lefties and Lannan has been terrible, I think Lannan will have enough to keep Adam LaRoche off the basepaths and in the park today. LaRoche just has not been very good lately, posting a .303 OPS in his last 7 days. LaRoche as well has 12 at bats against Lannan with 5 strikeouts, so it is not looking up.