Today's Hitter Breakdown: June 18th
It is Tuesday, so another round of qualifiers are at our door. Today’s hitter breakdown is going to be a little different than ones before and focus on those guys that may be fairly inexpensive but have high upside and can get you big points while flexing the salary so you can grab that stud pitcher or stud hitter. Most of these guys should be playing, but make sure to check lineups before rosters lock.
Park Factors are starting to get back to normal with a bigger sample size, and it will continue to move towards the actual number as we get more games and more data.
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Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Carp | 1.135 | 0.4 | 0.446 | 1.08 | Odorizzi – R | 8.03 | 0.333 |
| Rajai Davis | 0.844 | 0.354 | 0.319 | 1.1 | Francis – L | 5.87 | 0.326 |
| Tyler Colvin | 1.139 | 0.267 | 0.436 | 1.05 | Rogers – R | 3.21 | 0.417 |
| Adam Dunn | 1.511 | 0.184 | 0.312 | 1.04 | Pelfrey – R | 6.12 | 0.21 |
| Jason Castro | 1.065 | 0.325 | 0.348 | 1.08 | Figaro – R | 3.47 | 0.292 |
| Josh Hamilton | 0.705 | 0.25 | 0.284 | 0.94 | Bonderman – R | 3.86 | 0.235 |
| Matt Joyce | 1.423 | 0.27 | 0.38 | 1.08 | Aceves – R | 5.58 | 0.281 |
| Pedro Alvarez | 1.14 | 0.246 | 0.312 | 1.06 | Latos – R | 3.08 | 0.222 |
| Didi Gregorius | 0.533 | 0.348 | 0.356 | 1.02 | Eovaldi – R | 4.3 | 0.348 |
| Buster Posey | 1.079 | 0.333 | 0.386 | 0.89 | Cashner – R | 3.52 | 0.301 |
- As the wonderful RotoGrinders twitter feed retweeted yesterday, aside from an 0-19 slump, Mike Carp has been mashing this year. John Farrell states that Carp should be ready to play Today and I would expect to see him in the lineup in one of the games, hopefully the night game against Odorizzi. Carp is still really cheap and has always had big power, and as a lefty in Fenway has it golden.
- Rajai Davis produces when he plays. Period. If he starts against Colorado, he is certainly a good play for his price as he is really cheap almost everywhere. He is always a threat to steal a bag and has tremendous speed in a power lineup. I especially like him against Francis who he is 5 for 10 off of.
- On a site like Draftstreet, Tyler Colvin salary is already sky high, but on some of the other, slower to update sites like Fanduel, he can still be found at a massive bargain. He was tearing it up in AAA and now comes to the big leagues and is tearing up right handed pitching. He should be playing today and hitting against the ancient Esmil Rogers. I am still waiting for Rogers to implode, and Colvin could be a big part of that.
- I know, I know all about Adam Dunn history, but when you are looking for a risk/reward GPP play, he has to be one of the first guys out of your mouth. He has a really solid matchup against Pelfrey who he has taken deep twice in 28 at bats, and he is also swinging an incredibly hot home run stick right now. He can easily hit you 2 in one game and be that guy that you need to have.
- Here we go again, Jason Castro is heating up. Playing for Houston, he is going to be a little bit under the radar, but when he is on and hitting against right handers, he makes one of the better power catcher options. He has hit 9 of his 10 homers at Minute Maid park. I am still not convinced that Figaro can be a very effective starter, and he is very home run prone, so Castro should have a nice shot at going deep.
- I am still not convinced after a couple of good starts that Jeremy Bonderman is going to be an effective pitcher. It may be my years of watching him pitch for the Tigers a long time ago or it may just be that he really is not dominant, but I am waiting for him to get lit up. Tonight looks like the best night of any, and I sound like a broken record, but could this be the night that Josh Hamilton has multiple good games in a row? You cannot doubt his career numbers and that he has the potential; add in the fact that he is dirt cheap and he makes a nice GPP upside play.
- Looking for the leagues hottest hitter? Enter Matt Joyce who has an 8 game hit streak going with 4 multi-hit games and 4 home runs. His OPS is a staggering 1.423 and he is batting at the top of the Rays lineup. He may not be cheap, but he certainly is in a good position against Aceves who has not been good against either right or left handers this year. Joyce will also benefit hitting as a lefty in Fenway.
- Pedro Alvarez is not exactly hitting everything he sees but almost everything he hits is going for extra bases. He does strike out, so be wary of that, however he has been solid on his home run swing in June. Latos is not the best matchup, but sometimes you need to go Tuttle time and think outside the box to win a GPP.
- Eovaldi has not exactly been tearing it up in the minors, so his first start in the majors this year could get a bit rocky, especially in Chase Field. Didi Gregorius has not been good recently, posting a .533 OPS in his last 7, but one thing he has been consistent at is crushing right handers, hitting all 4 of his homers against them with a nice .971 OPS. Eovaldi also struggled against lefties last year yeilding a .845 OPS so this could be a solid spot for the DBacks shortstop.
- Buster Posey is definitely not a sneaky option today but he is one that you should not ignore. He is super hot going for 11 hits in his last 22 at bats, and has hit most of his homers off of right handed pitching this year. He is facing off against Cashner who has been ok, however Posey has 2 dingers in 9 at bats against Cashner so he has hit him hard before. Think long and hard before fading Buster tonight.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Aviles | 0.863 | 0.283 | 0.301 | 1.03 | Santana – R | 2.74 | 0.289 |
| Adam Jones | 0.842 | 0.338 | 0.361 | 1.07 | Verlander – R | 3.41 | 0.321 |
| Brett Gardner | 0.841 | 0.343 | 0.35 | 1.03 | Ryu – L | 2.85 | 0.294 |
| Alfonso Soriano | 0.21 | 0.304 | 0.294 | 0.91 | Wainwright – R | 2.18 | 0.227 |
| Ryan Zimmerman | 1.092 | 0.331 | 0.352 | 0.99 | Lee – L | 2.55 | 0.296 |
| Ryan Howard | 1.202 | 0.358 | 0.332 | 1.1 | Detwiler – L | 3.02 | 0.21 |
| Justin Upton | 0.656 | 0.301 | 0.357 | 0.9 | Wheeler – R | 2.04 | 0.251 |
| Josh Donaldson | 0.456 | 0.343 | 0.375 | 0.98 | Darvish – R | 2.64 | 0.28 |
| Denard Span | 0.31 | 0.299 | 0.293 | 1.1 | Lee – L | 2.55 | 0.145 |
| Hunter Pence | 0.833 | 0.314 | 0.359 | 0.89 | Cashner – R | 3.52 | 0.278 |
- Mike Aviles has been taking over at short since Cabrera has been injured, and has been doing a decent job of it for the Indians. Here he faces Ervin Santana who is having a nice season for Kansas City, using all of his pitches effectively. Aviles is 0 for 10 against Santana in their careers and none of the Cleveland hitters have had much success against him, even when he was bad, so I would look elsewhere.
- Adam Jones gets to face Verlander today which is never one of his favorite pastimes. Adam Jones is 2 for 24 off of Verlander with 8 strikeouts. While I don’t usually like to look at BVP numbers, I have watched a handful of these at bats and Jones looks lost when he faces Verlander, so I am going to fade him today.
- I am not so worried about Brett Gardner ability to produce one or two hits tonight, I am worried about his upside. Ryu has only allowed 1 lefty to homer off him so far this year, and Gardner might not be the best candidate to change that. Another thing that concerns me is that Ryu does not give up stolen bases to anyone, and Gardner refuses to steal against left handers.
- It just keeps getting worse for Alfonso Soriano against right handers, and tonight will be no different. Probably the top pitching option today is Wainwright, and I would not expect any of the Cubs to do anything against him, especially with how poorly Soriano is hitting. There just is not anything more to it than Wainwright is very good and the cubs are very bad.
- Cliff Lee is quietly having a really solid season for the Phillies, and is actually dominating right handers with a .524 OPS. Ryan Zimmerman has has little success in his career against Lee, going 3 for 18, and he has a hard time homering against left handers, only 12 in the last 4 years. There are much better options at 3rd base today.
- Ryan Howard has started to heat up and is performing above his salary, however I still do not trust him against left handers. He is struggling again against them this year, and only owns a .601 OPS against the southpaws. Detwiler is yet to allow a homer to a lefty and in the last 3 years, he has only allowed 4. Even though Howard is cheap, I would like to avoid him.
- This is kind of a gut pick, but I do not want anything to do with Justin Upton today. First he gets to face Harvey in the day game, and then he has to match up against the phenom Wheeler in the 2nd game. The Mets always seem to have a solid debut by one of their young pitchers, and with the way Upton has been going, it makes me very nervous.
- The A’s have found a way to get good major leaguers out of unheralded prospects. Josh Donaldson is just another one of those and is having a very nice season. He has slumped recently, however and has been having a bit of a hamstring issue. His average has dropped by 30 points since the June 6th, and he has to face Darvish today who is not a slump buster.
- This is an ugly one as the Nats leadoff hitter, Denard Span, has really fallen on rough times. He is so cold, that it is effecting his stolen base totals as well. Although he might be cheap, this battle with Cliff Lee today is not one that I would willingly enter him into if I was trying to win a fantasy contest.
- Hunter Pence is having a really nice bounce back season from his struggles last year, and the Giants have needed it. I however, am not too enamored with this matchup. If you look at Cashner’s starts this year, he is consistently going deeper and deeper into games and is not getting lit up. He is pitching is spacious AT&T park and has also held righties to a .218 average this year. Pence has just came off a hot streak, so his salary will be at the top of his range, and I think you can find higher upside guys in the outfield today.