Today's Hitter Breakdown: June 4th
Another Tuesday where qualifiers abound. Let’s get those hitters you are going to want to look at that can win you a big qualifier with a big day. Not much rain to be worried about tonight, only game that looks sketchy is the Minnesota Kansas City game.
Park Factors are starting to get back to normal with a bigger sample size, and it will continue to move towards the actual number as we get more games and more data.
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Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Kipnis | 0.53 | 0.288 | 0.326 | 1.04 | Phelps – R | 4.65 | 0.23 |
| Manny Machado | 0.666 | 0.368 | 0.378 | 1.07 | Harrell – R | 5.37 | 0.348 |
| Yasiel Puig | 1 | 0.5 | 0.442 | 0.9 | Richard – L | 7.86 | 0.667 |
| Adrian Gonzalez | 0.81 | 0.333 | 0.378 | 0.99 | Richard – L | 7.86 | 0.366 |
| Jay Bruce | 0.941 | 0.35 | 0.338 | 1.01 | Nicasio – R | 4.79 | 0.256 |
| Mark Teixeira | 0.703 | 0.333 | 0.31 | 0.96 | Kazmir – L | 5.13 | 0.167 |
| Shin-Soo Choo | 0.652 | 0.338 | 0.406 | 1.01 | Nicasio – R | 4.79 | 0.338 |
| Domonic Brown | 1.922 | 0.289 | 0.387 | 1.12 | Nolasco – R | 3.69 | 0.277 |
| Erick Aybar | 0.709 | 0.285 | 0.28 | 0.93 | Feldman – R | 2.82 | 0.284 |
| Kendrys Morales | 0.822 | 0.335 | 0.371 | 1 | Peavy – R | 3.62 | 0.266 |
- Jason Kipnis is really baffling me this year, but I still think he is a good play today. He has hit a homer off of Phelps before and Phelps is coming off what I am sure is the worst game of his career where he was able to get one out against the lowly Mets. I am interested to see what the lefties on Cleveland can do to him this time out.
- Most people are going to immediately flock to Chris Davis or Chris Dickerson today, and while they are both great options, I do not think you should forget about Manny Machado. He has been destroying right handed pitching this year, and Harrell is not a guy who really excels against either side. If you can fit Davis in for his RBIs, fit Machado in because he will be the one Davis is driving in.
- The future for the Dodgers is now as they hit Puig leadoff last night and he had 2 singles. From the one game I watched him in last night, he is an all around talent and isn’t your normal rookie. On sites like DraftKings, where he is still minimum salary he is an incredible bargain and should not be passed up as he brings speed and power. Not to be forgotten, he is also facing Clayton Richard who is just awful.
- Adrian Gonzalez is the Dodgers hottest hitter, and with Ramirez possibly getting reactivated tonight, and with Puig leading off, a spark could be lit under the Dodgers. A-Gon is a better hitter against lefties than he is against right handers, and he faces a garbage one tonight in Richard and he should have guys on in front of him.
- When Jay Bruce heats up, he goes crazy, and I want to be picking him at the beginning of those hot streaks. It looks like he could have one beginning here as he has homered a couple of times recently and is hitting for average as well. Nicasio has actually been better at Coors field than away, and could have trouble with a stacked Reds lineup tonight.
- Welcome back, Mark Teixeira. After the grand slam last night against Masterson, he now gets an even better matchup tonight against Kazmir. Over the past 3 years he has hit left handers .143 OPS points higher than right handers. Against Kazmir for his career he is 7 for 14 with 4 doubles and a 1.411 OPS, so he could very well go yard against tonight.
- Shin-Soo Choo gets another one of those matchups again where it is prime for him to homer. Just like Bruce he gets to face Nicasio who is pretty poor on the road and where Choo is good at home. Nicasio is also right handed, so it’s a perfect time for Choo to bounce back from this mini-slump he is in and jack one.
- I will give Domonic Brown today again on this list before I put him into the always a good play list. I am sure everyone knows how hot he is an he gets another tasty matchup against Nolasco who he is 6 for 12 off of with a home run.
- If you are looking for a shortstop and do not want to fill in the shortstop on teams like the Orioles or Dodgers, look at Erick Aybar. While his opposing pitcher, Feldman, has been really good this year, he has always struggled to get Aybar out. Erick is 9 for 18 with 2 triples and a 1.304 OPS against Feldman and should be batting at the top of the lineup again.
- One of the hotter hitters in the league over the last month has been Kendrys Morales and he has done it without much fanfare. He has had hits in 14 of 15 games and is hitting doubles and knocking in runs in that span. Peavy is pretty good but I still do not mind him for his price today.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado | 0.379 | 0.231 | 0.277 | 0.9 | Bailey – R | 3.84 | 0.228 |
| Andre Ethier | 0.386 | 0.276 | 0.296 | 0.99 | Richard – L | 7.86 | 0.234 |
| Jason Heyward | 0.453 | 0.167 | 0.263 | 0.95 | Locke – L | 2.25 | 0.258 |
| Alex Rios | 0.633 | 0.299 | 0.363 | 0.96 | Hernandez – R | 2.38 | 0.283 |
| Alfonso Soriano | 0.625 | 0.313 | 0.31 | 1.06 | Weaver – R | 3.71 | 0.228 |
| David Wright | 0.414 | 0.32 | 0.364 | 0.92 | Zimmerman – R | 2.37 | 0.297 |
| Adrian Beltre | 1.532 | 0.301 | 0.373 | 1 | Dempster – R | 4.45 | 0.317 |
| Desmond Jennings | 1.197 | 0.305 | 0.322 | 1.08 | Sanchez – R | 2.79 | 0.254 |
| Miguel Cabrera | 1.049 | 0.379 | 0.466 | 1.08 | Moore – L | 2.18 | 0.417 |
| Neil Walker | 1.102 | 0.308 | 0.339 | 0.87 | Minor – L | 2.48 | 0.156 |
- Nolan Arenado is going though some hard times at the plate adjusting to big league pitching. He has been blanked in 4 of his last 6 games and only has 1 extra base hit in that span. Homer Bailey is pretty good and I would not want to risk Arenado here.
- Andre Ethier is extremely frustrating as he has had many good opportunities to break out of his slump and did not do it for me. Now he faces Richard, and even though Richard is horrible I am going to fade Ethier on the Dodgers today. He is only 6 for 31 off Richard in his career with no home runs and is really struggling to do anything productive at the plate right now.
- It is pretty insane how bad Jason Heyward has been against left handers since returning to the lineup. He is also not doing anything in general with the bat, and I do not like his prospects of homering against Jeff Locke tonight who is really performing well for the Pirates.
- The White Sox are in a terrible place right now, losing every game they are playing in. Rios is not the coldest hitter, but he does have to face Felix Hernandez today who has held him to a .240 average and .629 OPS in 25 at-bats with 9 strikeouts. I do not trust any White Sox player tonight.
- I find it incredible that with the long careers that Weaver and Alfonso Soriano have enjoyed, that they have never faced each other. After Weaver’s injury he came out and pitched a really solid game and I expect him to do that tonight and shut down the Cubs bats, especially Soriano who cannot hit right handers.
- David Wright is ice cold right now, and not only that, his strikeouts are up. Jordan Zimmermann has probably been the Nats best pitcher this year and should be able to contain a Mets lineup which just is not producing runs.
- I do not know if Adrian Beltre will play tonight, probably not due to his hamstring injury, but if he is found in the lineup, try to avoid him. He will most likely be still nagged by the injury and he has had no success off of Dempster in his career going 3 for 18 with a .544 OPS.
- Desmond Jennings was recently dropped in the order by the Rays and has been batting near 5th or 6th. I do not like him today against Sanchez as Sanchez can completely shut down a team striking them all out in the process when he is on. There are safer options in the outfield today.
- I am really looking forward to the Miguel Cabrera Moore matchup. Cabrera is hitting left handers at a .417 clip this year and Moore is hlding right handers to a .535 OPS. Miguel Cabrera essentially needs to homer and more on sites like DraftDay and DraftStreet where he is as much as a pitcher, and I think Moore is able to keep him in the park today.
- I would like to have a talk with Neil Walker about why he switch hits. He has no power whatsoever when he hits from the right side, yet he continues to do it. The tradeoff of right/left matchups cannot be that great to continue switch hitting? Anyways, he will be hitting from the right today against Minor, who has been pretty good, while the Pirates cannot score runs.