Today's Hitter Breakdown: May 14th

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2013-05-14 19:08:15

Another Tuesday, loaded with qualifiers, and a whole bunch of potentially high scoring games to look at today. Basically anyone at Wrigley is in play with the winds blowing out and the over/under set at 10.5 at this time, so we will look at some others as well that you are going to want to get into your lineups.

As I mentioned before, Park Factors are now used from this season’s data as the fences were moved in at Safeco and Petco. They will be a bit fluid until we get a decent sample, so if the park factors seem a bit off, this is why.

Wondering what some of the stats below represent? Check out this popup Batter Breakdown FAQ Page

Today’s Hitters to Target

• Sure, Edwin Encarnacion is struggling so far against left handers, but his career numbers are more favorable so he is bound to turn it around. Encarnacion is 4 for 7 with 2 home runs off of Zito and 0 strikeouts, so in their limited meetings Edwin has owned him. One thing he does well is homer, and should do it today.

• Pablo Sandoval is starting to heat up as he has a really nice hit streak going and his homered in his last 2 games. He gets a solid matchup this week with Dickey, who has struggled at the Rogers Centre so far this year. Most of his power is coming from the left side where he will be batting against Dickey today.

• Andy Dirks is another guy who is really starting to get it going. Over the past 2 weeks he has had a couple of monster fantasy point days going 3/4 with a homer, 2/5 with a homer and 4/4 with a homer. With Jackson on the DL, Dirks should be leading off again and provides some amazing value with power at the top of the Tigers lineup.

• Billy Butler traditionally crushes left handers, and Vargas in his career has been no different. Butler is 6 for 13 with 2 homers and a 1.639 OPS against Vargas in their history. Butler had been struggling but broke out of his slump in a big way last night, so look for him to continue producing.

• Over the last 3 years, Adrian Beltre has some reverse splits where he actually hits right handers better than left. That stays consistent with him crushing Colon regularly, posting a career 1.006 OPS with 5 homers. He is averaging a home almost once every other game, and Colon isn’t the player he used to be.

• The bargain play of the day could be found with Jose Tabata if he is playing. He has had success against Lohse in the past, going 10 for 21 with a 1.262 OPS. He is also coming off of one of the best games of his career, however he doesn’t play very often so make sure to check his status before first pitch.

• Andre Ethier has not hit at all the way people were expecting him to this year, and his price has dropped accordingly. He is a cheap option and still a solid hitter especially with the splits he has against Haren. He is 20 for 4 lifetime for a .426 batting average and a 1.109 OPS. Haren is the shell of himself and could be ripe for the picking today, so the signs are pointing to Ethier doing well.

• Jason Kipnis has really started to get it together here recently. All of his homers have come in May and all of them have come against right handers. He faces a right hander today in a park which has been very kind to right handers so far this season. He has a nice hitting streak going and I think he keeps it going today.

• The speed at the top of the Brewers lineup is incredible. Carlos Gomez is a part of that and has also been one of the best hitters in the majors this year. He is destroying left handed pitching and gets a nice matchup against Locke here which he should be able to abuse even in PNC.

• The shortstop pool today is very small, so if you want to go cheap, Yunel Escobar is looking decent, or if you want to go for the top tier, Troy Tulowitzki may be your only option. Tulo has destroyed right handed pitching this year and all of his home runs are coming off right handers. Not only that but he has a nice history against Villanueva going 3 for 4 with 2 homers.

Today’s Hitters to Avoid

• Michael Saunders has had some nice games at the top of Seattle’s lineup but today could be a struggle against CC. Saunders only has 1 hit in 11 attempts against Sabathia to include 5 strikeouts, and a bunch of the Seattle hitters are also left handed. CC Sabathia is punishing left handers this year so playing Seattle players is playing with fire.

• Buried under the Red Sox nice start this year is Jacoby Ellsbury struggles. He really hasn’t done much and is not the productive fantasy player that anyone could have asked for. He faces off against Matt Moore today who has been dominant this year, and Ellsbury isn’t hitting against left handers. I would stay away until he can get something going.

• I have had Josh Willingham on the avoids list for way too many times this season, but when he is facing a right hander there is not much else you can do. Willingham is 1 for 18 career against Peavy with a .316 OPS, which does not equal out to a lot of fantasy points. He is not going to be in my arsenal tonight.

• Brandon Phillips has to play in Marlins Park tonight which has been brutal to right handed batters so far this season. (Granted, it is because the Marlins right handers are terrible.) He also has done most of his damage against lefties this year and is only carrying a .654 OPS against right handers not to mention a 4 for 25 history against Nolasco with 8 strikeouts. He isn’t hot either, so I don’t want to pay for his production at 2nd today.

• Adam LaRoche has had such a garbage start to the season that his recent play much be awesome to Nationals fans. The problem is that he is going to be up against Clayton Kershaw tonight who has struck him out 8 times in 13 at bats. Kershaw is one of the best right now and I don’t want to mess with players against him.

• Speaking of one of the best, Vernon Wells has to face Felix Hernandez today in Yankee Stadium. While Wells has been a really nice story for New York so far, as I said above, I am not interested in taking a bad BVP player against one of the best pitchers in the game. Wells only has a .683 OPS over 28 at bats and has 9 strikeouts against the King.

• Erick Aybar was activated from the DL but I would not think about using him. Aybar is only 2 for 21 lifetime off of Guthrie and was cold leading up to his injury, so I can only imagine he is going to need some time to get back into the swing of major league activity. Guthrie has been pretty solid, so picking Aybar would be a gamble.

• Jeff Keppinger has been the worst player this year on any major league team. He just isn’t getting it done for the White Sox and has been dropped in the order. He is not hitting right handers, and Correia has been effective if not good. With all of the other options out there, Keppinger is not a good one.

• As with Keppinger, Francoeur’s time in the majors may be close to being up. He is not getting it done for the Royals either and with the talent they have it might be a short time until he is gone. He is ice cold, and even against Vargas he doesn’t have a good matchup who he is 4 for 15 off of in his career.

• Even in Citizens Bank tonight, I don’t think Ryan Howard does well. Scott Kazmir turned back the clocks in the last game and pitched well, and I think he will be effective again tonight against the lefty heavy Phillies. Howard has been terrible with a .481 OPS in his last 7 and cannot hit left handers so use with caution.