Today's Hitter Breakdown: May 7th
There is some weather issues tonight as Baltimore, Washington, and Pittsburgh are all going to face a storm around game time. Make sure you check before first pitch, as tonight has another round of qualifiers for the big events and weather could be the deciding factor.
As I mentioned before, Park Factors are now used from this season’s data as the fences were moved in at Safeco and Petco. They will be a bit fluid until we get a decent sample, so if the park factors seem a bit off, this is why.
Wondering what some of the stats below represent? Check out this popup Batter Breakdown FAQ Page
Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Butler | 0.762 | 0.288 | 0.356 | 1 | Chen – L | 3.5 | 0.16 |
| Josh Hamilton | 0.59 | 0.273 | 0.245 | 1.04 | Lyles – R | 3.6 | 0.217 |
| Russell Martin | 1.086 | 0.253 | 0.39 | 0.94 | Harang – R | 8.68 | 0.3 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 1.317 | 0.284 | 0.388 | 1.08 | Lynn – R | 2.75 | 0.228 |
| Vernon Wells | 0.316 | 0.286 | 0.356 | 1.1 | De La Rosa – L | 4.18 | 0.333 |
| Carlos Gomez | 1.289 | 0.418 | 0.452 | 1.12 | Grimm – R | 2.28 | 0.359 |
| JP Arencibia | 0.782 | 0.313 | 0.343 | 0.95 | Hernandez – R | 5.28 | 0.276 |
| Jedd Gyorko | 1.208 | 0.318 | 0.325 | 0.94 | Sanabia – R | 4.67 | 0.268 |
| Evan Longoria | 0.953 | 0.341 | 0.392 | 0.95 | Happ – L | 3.98 | 0.351 |
| Mike Trout | 1.381 | 0.31 | 0.36 | 1.05 | Lyles – R | 3.6 | 0.279 |
- Billy Butler has been terrible against left handers this year, but what is strange is that he usually crushes them. He is often one of the least talked about solid hitters in the game and I think he posts a nice stat line against Chen after Chen’s horrible outing last start.
- At some point, Josh Hamilton is going to start being a nice value play. Tonight is as good of a time than any, as the Angels have the highest over under of the night and they get to face Lyles in Minute Maid. Hamilton should see plenty of pitches to take out of the park.
- Russell Martin seems to be a different player this year, as he is really producing for Pittsburgh and has been batting at the top of the order. Martin has done most of his work against right handers, and now faces Harang who he is 6 for 13 off of in his career. Harang is also terrible, and I like Martin to homer tonight even in PNC.
- Anthony Rizzo has an interesting matchup tonight, as he faces Lynn who has been solid to start the season. Rizzo, however is 3 for 5 with a homer in a limited sample and has been homering with regularity every week of the season. He is about the only good thing on the Cubs team, so be careful, however if I need a filler at first he can really make that difference.
- Vernon Wells has been ice cold, but all that means is his salary should have dropped. He gets to hit in Coors Field which is the greatest slumpbuster. He is also against Jorge De La Rosa whose stats are pretty average and is coming off a really terrible start.
- I don’t know how to explain Carlos Gomez power boost from 2010 to 2011 (.110 ISO to .177 ISO) except for, you know. His power jump, however, makes him a very nice fantasy player as he is now posting really nice wOBA stats and is still stealing bags. While Grimm has been good, Gomez has been one of the best hitters in the game and if his price is still low he has high upside.
- A really interesting split to note about JP Arencibia is that all of his power this year is coming off of right handers. He is facing Hernandez tonight who is coming off of a terrible start where he gave up 3 home runs.
- Believe it or not, the best bang for your buck at 2nd base tonight might by Jedd Gyorko (pronounced jerk-o). The 2nd base pool is really lacking and most of the big names have poor matchups or are really expensive. Gyorko has been connecting with his inner power lately and has homered in each of the last 2 games. Sanabia hasn’t been that great and probably should still be in the minors.
- Evan Longoria is your best option at 3rd today, just like most days when he faces a left hander at home. Happ really had some control issues last game and is consistently giving up about 6 hits per game in 5 innings of work.
- Here we go, Mike Trout is finally starting to heat up. His slow start to the season has given a bit of a discount on his price, but he now has 3 homers in the month of may and could have a really strong may. The Angels against Lyles look like a really nice team to mini-stack and I would take Trout before he goes up to Miguel Cabrera salary.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayson Werth | 0 | 0.293 | 0.312 | 0.91 | Sanchez – R | 1.82 | 0.282 |
| Jacoby Ellsbury | 0.676 | 0.314 | 0.314 | 0.95 | Diamond – L | 3.97 | 0.22 |
| Martin Prado | 0.742 | 0.241 | 0.283 | 0.9 | Beckett – R | 5.24 | 0.24 |
| Chase Utley | 0.613 | 0.26 | 0.341 | 0.96 | Lincecum – R | 4.41 | 0.303 |
| Jimmy Rollins | 0.251 | 0.283 | 0.283 | 0.96 | Lincecum – R | 4.41 | 0.222 |
| Michael Morse | 0.969 | 0.239 | 0.342 | 0.94 | McDonald – R | 5.76 | 0.227 |
| Adam Dunn | 0.626 | 0.164 | 0.265 | 0.89 | Harvey – R | 1.56 | 0.161 |
| Zack Cozart | 0.458 | 0.206 | 0.253 | 0.93 | Medlen – R | 3.38 | 0.177 |
| Michael Brantley | 0.703 | 0.377 | 0.325 | 1.11 | Milone – L | 3.69 | 0.298 |
| Alex Gordon | 0.472 | 0.376 | 0.344 | 1 | Chen – L | 3.5 | 0.432 |
- Jayson Werth has my favorite BVP of the day today. He has struck out a whopping 19 times in 30 at bats against Anibal Sanchez, and with Sanchez striking out everything in sight right now, I don’t want to use Werth.
- Jacoby Ellsbury has been struggling lately, and especially against left handers this whole year. His salary is still through the roof in most places, and he doesn’t have the upside against Diamond to use today, especially since Diamond has been Minnesota’s best pitcher.
- Martin Prado has had a pretty poor start to the season, and isn’t what Arizona hoped for when they got him. Most likely at some point he will start producing, but I do not think it is today even against Beckett. He has had no success against Josh going 0 for 10.
- Chase Utley goes on here again due to his poor BVP against Lincecum. He does hit right handers much better than left, but I still do not think he has a solid matchup in AT&T park. Utley is only 5 for 30 off Lincecum in his career with 12 strikeouts and is still cold swinging the bat.
- Jimmy Rollins is another Phillie with bat splits against Lincecum, going 6 for 29. Rollins has been more ice cold than Utley as well posting a nice .251 OPS in his last 7 games. There is a pretty low upside here for these 2 in AT&T park.
- Michael Morse has had an up and down season, and it appears he is in the down part again as he is hitless in his last 2 games. I am going to stay away from Seattle in PNC park tonight as McDonald could be close to getting demoted as Pittsburgh has a couple of pitchers coming back from injury. McDonald really needs a good start and I think he brings his best stuff tonight.
- If you haven’t noticed, Adam Dunn is one of my least favorite players in the league. I would completely ignore him today as Chicago is playing in a National League park and the White Sox will not be able to DH him, so they would have to play him in the outfield which sounds like a terrible idea. If he does play, we could see Harvey’s strikeout totals go through the roof.
- Zack Cozart has been terrible recently, and hasn’t been able to hit right handers at all. I am really not sure why Dusty Baker won’t move Cozart down and Votto to #2, but that is a different story. Cozart is ice cold and is facing a pretty solid pitcher in Medlen, so I would look elsewhere for a shortstop today.
- In all of Cleveland’s recent success at the plate, Michael Brantley has hardly been a part of it. Cleveland should be regressing soon, and with the lefty Milone on the hill today, I expect them to struggle a bit. Brantley hasn’t found any sort of power this year, and there are better options out there.
- Alex Gordon has been cold lately posting a .472 OPS in his last 7. He has really hit left handed pitching hard so far this year, but I think that is an aberration as his BABIP is .376 which is really high over the norm. I would expect him to regress some on those balls in play. He is still striking out against left handers, so as soon as those balls start getting caught, his left handed average will sink.