Today's Hitter Breakdown: September 14th
While the entire nation is going to be focusing on college football and may not have time to do their baseball research today, we have it here for you. There are still some solid GPPs out there, and there could be some dead money in those games. Let’s get to the matchup analysis.
With only a month left in the season, this year’s Park Factors should be very representative of how the parks this year have played. There are still some irregularities, however they should work themselves out in time.
Wondering what some of the stats below represent? Check out this popup Batter Breakdown FAQ Page
Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Alvarez | 0.755 | 0.281 | 0.328 | 0.89 | Baker – R | 0 | 0.246 |
| Prince Fielder | 0.983 | 0.305 | 0.356 | 0.99 | Santana – R | 3.35 | 0.272 |
| Evan Longoria | 1.195 | 0.31 | 0.364 | 0.99 | Albers – L | 3.35 | 0.314 |
| Justin Upton | 0.478 | 0.315 | 0.353 | 0.91 | Erlin – L | 5.56 | 0.272 |
| Yadier Molina | 0.884 | 0.336 | 0.362 | 0.91 | Paxton – L | 1.5 | 0.344 |
| Hunter Pence | 1.065 | 0.317 | 0.356 | 0.92 | Nolasco – R | 3.14 | 0.277 |
| Troy Tulowitzki | 0.691 | 0.336 | 0.398 | 0.99 | Miley – L | 3.73 | 0.313 |
| Aaron Hill | 0.511 | 0.319 | 0.364 | 0.99 | Oswalt – R | 8.57 | 0.287 |
| Mark Trumbo | 1.415 | 0.283 | 0.333 | 1.03 | Oberholtzer – L | 2.65 | 0.279 |
| Freddy Galvis | 1.208 | 0.271 | 0.299 | 0.98 | Gonzalez – L | 3.31 | 0.209 |
- Scott Baker gets his second start of the season, and he has to pitch against Pedro Alvarez and the Pirates. Alvarez destroys right handers and I am not sold on Baker’s 5 inning 0 ER start as he was never that great of a pitcher when he was healthy. Alvarez hit a homer last night and his homers come in bunches so I’m looking for him to go deep again tonight.
- Prince Fielder is really hitting the ball well finally for the Tigers at the right time, the end of the season. Fielder is 6 for 13 off Santana with 3 homers in their careers so he makes a solid play due to BVP as well.
- I love Evan Longoria today against the left handed Albers. Longoria has been hitting really well lately with his 1.195 OPS in the last 7. Longoria destroys left handed pitching with a .972 OPS against them and Albers is either good or horrible. I think he is more horrible tonight than good and the Rays take advantage.
- Justin Upton has been terrible for the recent history but I like him today. He gets to face Erlin who has been good but against poor offenses. When he traveled to Washington, he gave up 9 ER in 4 inning, so today traveling to Turner Field will not be good for him.
- James Paxton had a solid major league debut, but I cannot see anything good happening to him today. He is facing the Cardinals who have a reputation of destroying left handed pitching and even though he is pitching in a pitchers park he is where the Cardinals do damage. Yadier Molina is obliterating left handed pitching this year and is hitting in the middle of the lineup, so runs and RBIs should be a plenty.
- Ok, I give up. Hunter Pence is on fire, and nothing can stop him since he bucked all BVP trends and hit a homer against Kershaw last night. I am going to recommend him against Nolasco as he has been absolutely destroying the baseball and has a plus BVP against Nolasco hitting 4 homers in 28 at bats.
- Troy Tulowitzki is one of my favorite shortstop plays today against Miley in Chase Field because he has been destroying lefties recently. Even though he has not been hitting for power, he is still making solid contact and has not struck out in 4 games. He is a solid power hitter and the power will come, but for now I still like using him in this one.
- Roy Oswalt has been absolute garbage this year, and is almost a guarantee to let in 5 earned runs this year. He will pitch away from Coors at Chase against the Diamondbacks who are not great against right handers but Aaron Hill still has a knack for hitting right handers for power. I love the Diamondbacks tonight as a stack just because of how terrible Oswalt is.
- Mark Trumbo still continues his ridiculous tear through meager pitching in the last week, and now faces Oberholtzer. Brett has been very surprisingly solid but with the way Trumbo is hitting right now I expect this to be a bit of a regression for the young pitcher. Trumbo is going to be expensive but he continues to make his value every time out.
- Do not sleep on Freddy Galvis at 2nd base today. Galvis is on fire recently and I really think he will get the start again over Utley against Gonzalez. Galvis is hot, hitting for a 1.208 OPS in the last week along with smashing 2 homers. Galvis has 3 homers in 42 at bats against left handed pitching this year and makes a nice cheap option at 2nd today.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.606 | 0.307 | 0.379 | 0.96 | Hamels – L | 3.45 | 0.198 |
| Chase Utley | 0.907 | 0.298 | 0.353 | 0.96 | Gonzalez – L | 3.31 | 0.22 |
| Adam Dunn | 0.394 | 0.266 | 0.328 | 1.01 | Jimenez – R | 3.62 | 0.225 |
| Adrian Gonzalez | 1.06 | 0.317 | 0.344 | 0.96 | Lincecum – R | 4.4 | 0.302 |
| Starlin Castro | 0.372 | 0.287 | 0.275 | 0.91 | Cole – R | 3.48 | 0.243 |
| Pedro Florimon | 0.777 | 0.293 | 0.277 | 0.99 | Moore – L | 3.18 | 0.186 |
| Austin Jackson | 0.797 | 0.342 | 0.341 | 1.07 | Santana – R | 3.35 | 0.307 |
| Carlos Santana | 0.854 | 0.297 | 0.36 | 1.01 | Rienzo – R | 4.5 | 0.245 |
| Chase Headley | 0.876 | 0.316 | 0.318 | 1.03 | Medlen – R | 3.46 | 0.242 |
| Billy Butler | 0.724 | 0.329 | 0.351 | 1.07 | Fister – R | 3.77 | 0.3 |
- Bryce Harper is back in the lineup but not doing much as he has not had an extra base hit since he has been back. Harper’s OPS against lefties is .643 which is not much more than his last 7 days, so his matchup against Hamels does inspire confidence. He has 7 for 22 BVP against Hamels but his OPS there is still only .764 so it still does not look like he has any upside today.
- Like I noted above, I think that Chase Utley will sit tonight, but if he does I would bump up Gio Gonzalez a bit. Utley is really struggling against lefties like usual and although he has been good lately he is not hitting like Pence. I would just not mess with him today.
- I think people are underestimating the year that Ubaldo is having this year. He has been dominant in the last 7 starts and has lowered his ERA by a full point while his K% has been unreal including 10 in 3 of 4 games. Adam Dunn is strikeout happy and although Jimenez has allowed 12 HR to lefties, they still hit at a lower OPS overall. Dunn has not done anything lately and I think he could be in for a 0-4 3K game considering Dunn is 5 for 29 with 16 strikeouts against Ubaldo.
- I can see a ton of people being on Adrian Gonzalez tonight against the inconsistent Freak as he is cheap, is on fire, and hits in a good lineup. I am fading the Dodgers tonight as looking closer they really have not been that good of an offense for the last 2 weeks. You never know if you will get dominant Timmy or if you will get terrible Timmy, and I think there are a couple other offenses with just as good or better upsides tonight without risking a complete shutdown. Gonzalez’ BVP is also concerning going 9 for 47 with 16 strikeouts and 0 extra base hits.
- Starlin Castro is terrible this year, hitting against a guy who does not allow homers in a pitcher’s park. No thanks.
- I really dislike Pedro Florimon as well today against Moore who has came back with a vengeance allowing only 1 earned run in his 2 starts. Florimon struggles against lefties hitting only .186 with no homers. I cannot see him doing anything good here.
- Even though Austin Jackson has been solid against right handers all year, I am not feeling him tonight against Ervin Santana. Santana has been much better against right handed batters recently, closing in his reverse splits to even. Jackson is 1 for 14 off Santana in their careers and even though the Tigers crush right handers, I think Santana has a decent game against everyone except Fielder.
- Carlos Santana has had a pretty disapponting year after a torrid April. Santana has struggled against right handers this year with a .245 average and has to face Rienzo who bounced back after 2 5 ER outings. Rienzo has actually been better against left handed hiting this year as well giving up only a .711 OPS.
- I am not a big fan of Chase Headley tonight as he has to face Kris Medlen who has seemed to have righted the ship this year. Medlen has not allowed a homer in the last 3 games and only allowed 3 ER in that time. Headley is hitting in a poor lineup and has a terrible upside today.
- Billy Butler continues his streak of not hitting for power. He has 1 double since August 28th and the only thing keeping his fantasy value afloat is his RBI totals. Fister struggled against the Royals last time out but overall he has pretty decent numbers gainst them and decent numbers against Butler as he has not allowed Butler to have an extra base hit against him.